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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in April?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 98.8% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Péter Magyar
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino leads the desk at 20.5% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays
Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays. Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays – Winnipeg Free Press. Peru faces presidential runoff as election count drags on after ballot delays.
Sources: wral.com, winnipegfreepress.com, seattletimes.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in April? - No change leads the desk at 98.8% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee : The longer the war goes on , the more a rate cut gets pushed off. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh faces impossible task in rate cuts. QUESTIONS FOR KEVIN WARSH KEY ISSUES ARE FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE , INFLATION CONTROL.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, washingtonexaminer.com, insurancenewsnet.com
B4
Lead market: AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 16.2% with $146K traded.
Lead stories
Study finds top AI models still struggle with clinical reasoning
Study finds top AI models still struggle with clinical reasoning. Why Pay the SpaceX Premium When You Can Invest in xAI and Anthropic for Just $35 ? Here How .. OpenAI Has a New GPT - 5 . 4 - Cyber Model . Here Why You Cant Use It.
Sources: news-medical.net, fool.com, cnet.com
Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works
Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works. Billionaire Michael Burry : Anthropic Is a Serious Threat to Palantir Stock. Canada AI minister says Anthropic withholding Mythos is responsible - National.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $372K traded.
Lead stories
Opening of new Bacolod temple church set
Opening of new Bacolod temple church set. Joe Rogan Mocks Trump Idiotic Excuse for AI - Generated Jesus Post on Truth Social. Sara Haines corrects Joy Behar claim Jesus never called himself Messiah.
Sources: sunstar.com.ph, thedailybeast.com, foxnews.com
LeBron James , Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves Among Most - Viewed Players On NBA Socials
LeBron James , Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves Among Most - Viewed Players On NBA Socials. Shams Charania slams Bucks for questioning his credibility. The Best and Worst Case Scenario for Every NBA Team in the Postseason.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 63.0% with $72K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Price Prediction : BTC Holds $74K Can MACD Golden Cross and IBIT Rebound Push It to $85K ?
Bitcoin Price Prediction : BTC Holds $74K Can MACD Golden Cross and IBIT Rebound Push It to $85K ?. Bitcoin Price Will Hit $21M , Claims Michael Saylor , Following Strategy Latest $1B Purchase. Bitcoin Price Roars Past $76 , 000 As Short Squeeze Continues.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com, bitcoinmagazine.com
Is Bitcoin Still A Sovereign Tool ?
Is Bitcoin Still A Sovereign Tool ?. Goldman Sachs files for its first bitcoin ETF product - Moneycontrol . com. Bitcoin Bears See $50K Before Any Recovery.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 10.4% with $972K traded.
Lead stories
Lauren James : How can Sarina Wiegman and England get the best from talented forward ?
Lauren James : How can Sarina Wiegman and England get the best from talented forward ?. Ballon dOr winner Dembele shines at Anfield , sends PSG to Champions League semi - finals. Barcelona eliminated from Champions League , Atletico advances to semifinals.
Sources: bbc.com, gazetaexpress.com, gazetaexpress.com
Hugo Ekitike injury update after Liverpool striker is stretchered off vs PSG
Hugo Ekitike injury update after Liverpool striker is stretchered off vs PSG. Digging Deeper Into Liverpool 0 - 2 ( 0 - 4 agg .) Defeat to PSG. PSG have dumped Liverpool out of the Champions League.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 10.0% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
Canadian insurers fortify homes , urge Carney to put climate first as wildfire season kicks off
Canadian insurers fortify homes , urge Carney to put climate first as wildfire season kicks off. Japan posts lowest greenhouse gas emissions in decade. Sembcorp Industries Advances Sustainability Strategy with Renewables Expansion and Net - Zero Roadmap.
Sources: marketscreener.com, thepeninsulaqatar.com, greentechlead.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
98.9%
$187K
Report : 20 % of Spain Population Is Now Foreign - Born. The Repair Shop guest blown away as pride of place falling apart item fixed. Report : 20 % of Spain Population Is Now Foreign - Born - American Renaissance.
Sources: breitbart.com, liverpoolecho.co.uk, amren.com
Picture abhi baaki hai : Iran Bollywood jab at Trump amid Hormuz blockade ; warns missile boats warming up. Iran Consulate in Mumbai mocks Trump with Shah Rukh Khan dialogue. Lawrence ODonnell Slams Trump Iran Policy as Insane and Dangerous Move.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, indianexpress.com, newsbusters.org
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 20.5% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino.
Lead event
Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Trading at 20.5% with $3M in volume.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 20.5% | $3M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 58.0%
Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election: 3rd Place
Top volume: Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) | 1.7% | $3M
Top odds: Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) | 96.4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: April 15 | 3.9% | $3M
Top odds: June 30 | 87.0%
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Top volume & odds: Péter Magyar | 98.9% | $2M
6.2%
0.0pp
$10M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $554M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $525M+1%
Comedy Shows Play Dumb On Trump Hormuz Blockade Announcement. Australia deeply invested in ensuring Strait of Hormuz remains open : Defense chief. US blockade on maritime traffic of Iranian ports takes effect.
Sources: newsbusters.org, aa.com.tr, albawaba.com
Kevin Warsh , Trump Pick for Fed Chair Reveals Over $100M in Assets : See Details
Kevin Warsh , Trump Pick for Fed Chair Reveals Over $100M in Assets : See Details. Trump Fed Pick Is Knee Deep in Tech and Crypto Investments. Trump pick for new Fed Chair to have confirmation hearing next week.
Sources: newsweek.com, gizmodo.com, wwmt.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in April? - No change at 98.8% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in April? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.8% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 24.0% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 95.0% | $775K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 3.2% | $359K
Top odds: ↓ $85 | 74.0%
Popular events
Sources: 9to5mac.com, finance.yahoo.com, globalnews.ca
Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake
Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake. Anthropic IPO lifts outlook for SK Telecom stake. Blazing hot IPOs , an AI agent craze , and a new word for token : Here what happening in the world of Chinese AI.
Sources: upi.com, upi.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 at 16.2% with $146K traded.
Top volume remains in AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 16.2% | $146K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 5.5% | $37K
Top odds: Anthropic | 92.0%
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 94.5% | $15K
Popular events
Sources: lakersnation.com, awfulannouncing.com, si.com
Colm Feore on Canadian Film Day and a Jason Kelce shout - out for his recent short film – Winnipeg Free Press. Canadian actor Colm Feore appreciated shout out for Oscar - winning film from Jason Kelce on New Heights podcast. Coachella 2026 : Secret Parties & Clubs.
Sources: winnipegfreepress.com, cbc.ca, eurweb.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $372K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $372K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $163K
Top volume & odds: Kon Knueppel | 50.9% | $64K
Popular events
Sources: bitcoinmagazine.com, moneycontrol.com, cointelegraph.com
Crypto Exchange Kraken Prepares for IPO
Crypto Exchange Kraken Prepares for IPO. Crypto exchange Kraken confirms it has confidentially filed for an IPO. Deutsche Börse Acquires Kraken Stake in $200M Deal.
Sources: pymnts.com, cnbc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 at 63.0% with $72K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 11.0% | $56K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 69.0% | $54K
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 46.0% | $41K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $100M | 89.0% | $33K
Top odds: $50M | 95.0%
Popular events
Toto Wolff opens up on Mercedes gamble that critics said would burn Kimi Antonelli
Toto Wolff opens up on Mercedes gamble that critics said would burn Kimi Antonelli. Marathi mandatory for auto , taxi drivers from May 1 ; unions call it a political diktat. Exactly what to say when challenging a council parking ticket.
Sources: motorsport.com, hindustantimes.com, mirror.co.uk
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 10.4% with $972K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 10.4% | $972K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 30.0%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF
Top volume: Real Madrid CF | 19.0% | $64K
Top odds: FC Bayern München | 65.0%
Popular events
Vol $64K
Japan net greenhouse gas emissions fall to record low. Super Typhoon Sinlaku leaves 2 , 000 tourists stranded with 173mph wind | World | News. Manila Bulletin - Emperador raises 300 million euros from its first sustainability - linked loan.
Sources: bssnews.net, express.co.uk, mb.com.ph
Kenya Launches Sh520mn UN - Backed Nairobi Green Cities Project to Boost Climate - Resilient Urban Growth. Small Modular Reactors : Climate Solution or Costly Distraction ?. Greenhouse gas emissions in Japan fell to record low in fiscal 2024.
Sources: allafrica.com, geeky-gadgets.com, japantimes.co.jp
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 10.0% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$4,615
+$3,543
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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