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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $44M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 62.0%, with top volume on "Michelle Bowman" at 2.0% and $479K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in Jan 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "Fed maintains rate" at 97.0%, with top volume on "Cut 25bps" at 4.0% and $222K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL)
$6M
Highest implied
Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco
100.0%
Most liquid
College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL)
$13M
Volume leaders
College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL)
$6M
27.0%
$4M
97.0%
$4M
74.0%
Liquidity watch
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman leads the desk at 2.0% with $479K traded.
Lead stories
Hassett Says Trump May Be Right to Keep Him Out as Fed Chair
Hassett Says Trump May Be Right to Keep Him Out as Fed Chair. JPMorgan confirms Trump claim that CEO Dimon was not offered Fed chair job. Report : Trump Board of Peace to settle conflicts around the world.
Sources: bloomberg.com, nypost.com, yahoo.com
B2
Daily nominee and control markets, updated with the tape.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $41M+3%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps leads the desk at 4.0% with $222K traded.
Lead stories
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook firing
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook firing. AP Source : Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case. AP Source : Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case.
Sources: kmbc.com, clickondetroit.com, pilotonline.com
AP Source : Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case
AP Source : Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case. Hassett says Trump may be right to keep him out as Fed chair. AP Source : Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case.
B4
Lead market: Before 2027 leads the desk at 15.0% with $72K traded.
Lead stories
Sequoia to Join Funding Round for AI Startup Anthropic , FT Says
Sequoia to Join Funding Round for AI Startup Anthropic , FT Says. Sequoia Capital To Join $25 Billion Funding Round for Anthropic , After OpenAI , xAI : Report - Alphabet ( NASDAQ : G.... Kelly Evans : Hello , Gemini.
Sources: bloomberg.com, benzinga.com, cnbc.com
Fausto Tantillo Bags Second Chip Lead of Series on Main Event Day 1a
Fausto Tantillo Bags Second Chip Lead of Series on Main Event Day 1a.
B5
Lead market: #2 US Netflix Show this week? - HIS & HERS: Limited Series leads the desk at 1.0% with $43K traded.
Lead stories
Catfish : The TV Show. Catfish : The TV Show. Hoda Kotb so proud as Today magic reignite with Sheinelle Jones.
Sources: tvguide.co.uk, tvguide.co.uk, thenews.com.pk
New Lions on track for season start as defender impresses
New Lions on track for season start as defender impresses. 2026 Oscar nominations : Expert predictions in 11 key categories – Hartford Courant. 2026 Oscar nominations : Expert predictions in 11 key categories – Lowell Sun.
B6
Lead market: How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00 leads the desk at 22.0% with $42K traded.
Lead stories
How crypto criminals stole $713 million
How crypto criminals stole $713 million. Should You Forget Bitcoin and Buy XRP Instead ?. Riot Platforms Inc . ( RIOT ) Sells 1 , 818 BTC After 8 % Production Increase.
Sources: bbc.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Leverage Decay Forced MSTU 91 % Plunge
Leverage Decay Forced MSTU 91 % Plunge. 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Is Falling Today. Why is bitcoin falling ? Prices slip to $92 , 000 levels amid regulation worries , stronger dollar.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com,
B7
Lead market: College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL) leads the desk at 27.0% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
What channel is Indiana vs . Miami on ? Start time and broadcast info for CFP Final
What channel is Indiana vs . Miami on ? Start time and broadcast info for CFP Final. Why does Fernando Mendoza talk like that ? For Indiana star QB , it all part of the plan. Miami vs Indiana Best Bets , Predictions & Picks for Tonight National Championship Game.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, covers.com
B8
Lead market: Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 19, 2026? - 15° or below leads the desk at 1.0% with $980K traded.
Lead stories
Temperatures drop as dry weather prevails over T . N .
Temperatures drop as dry weather prevails over T . N .. Night , day temperature to remain nearly unchanged.
Sources: thehindu.com, bssnews.net
Florida Panthers lose 9 - 1 to Carolina Hurricanes in game after White House visit
Florida Panthers lose 9 - 1 to Carolina Hurricanes in game after White House visit.
Sources: russianmachineneverbreaks.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$10M
74.0%
Iran President Blames U . S . for Crises , Warns Attack on Khamenei All - Out War. US - based activist agency says it has verified 3 , 766 deaths from Iran protests – Winnipeg Free Press. Attack On Supreme Leader Will Be Declaration Of War , Warns Iran President.
Sources: breitbart.com, winnipegfreepress.com, news18.com
Tanzania President expresses regret over election internet shutdown – Channel Africa
Tanzania President expresses regret over election internet shutdown – Channel Africa. Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian Newspaper. FinancialContent - American Resilience : Surprise November Retail Surge Defies Shutdown and Sets High Bar for 2026.
Sources: channelafrica.co.za, nigerianeye.com, markets.financialcontent.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman at 2.0% with $479K traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Lead event
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman
Trading at 2.0% with $479K in volume.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Michelle Bowman | 2.0% | $479K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 62.0%
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 7.0% | $305K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 50.0%
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Shut down | 21.0% | $171K
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Top volume: Before May 1, 2026 | 13.0% | $123K
Top odds: Before January 20, 2029 | 42.0%
Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
Top volume: Josh Shapiro | 8.0% | $116K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 35.0%
Popular events
8.0%
0.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $12M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $8M0%
Sources: dailynews.com, unionleader.com, thetimes-tribune.com
When is the China quarterly GDP and how could it affect AUD / USD ?
When is the China quarterly GDP and how could it affect AUD / USD ?. Debashis Basu : How Could Markets Be At All - Time Highs While Portfolios Languished ?. India set for cyclical earnings upswing , may outperform EM peers despite valuation concerns : Jonathan Garner , Morg....
Sources: fxstreet.com, rediff.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps at 4.0% with $222K traded.
Liquidity centers on Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps.
Event leaders
Fed funds rate after Jan 2026 meeting?
Top volume: Above 3.75% | 2.0% | $15K
Top odds: Above 3.00% | 100.0%
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros?
Top volume: Before March | 12.0% | $6K
Top odds: Before December | 31.0%
Popular events
Sources: pokernews.com
Sequoia Capital planning big investment in Anthropic – FT
Sequoia Capital planning big investment in Anthropic – FT. Grok faces global bans over sexualized deepfake images ; ChatGPT named in lawsuits alleging deadly harm – NaturalNews.... Elon Musk Seeks Up To $134 Billion In Damages From OpenAI , Microsoft Over Fraudulent Partnership.
Sources: siliconrepublic.com, naturalnews.com, freepressjournal.in
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Before 2027 at 15.0% with $72K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD? - Before 2026.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 15.0% | $72K
What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026?
Top volume: gpt-5.2 | 3.0% | $23K
Top odds: gemini-3-pro | 96.0%
When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 58.0% | $4K
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?
Top volume & odds: OpenAI | 98.0% | $4K
Popular events
Vol $72K
Vol $9K
Sources: afl.com.au, courant.com, lowellsun.com
2026 Oscar nominations : Expert predictions in 11 key categories – The Oakland Press
2026 Oscar nominations : Expert predictions in 11 key categories – The Oakland Press. 2026 Oscar nominations : Expert predictions in 11 key categories – Macomb Daily. Michael B . Jordan : Best Actor Oscar nominee for playing twins ?.
Sources: theoaklandpress.com, macombdaily.com, goldderby.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by #2 US Netflix Show this week? - HIS & HERS: Limited Series at 1.0% with $43K traded.
Liquidity centers on Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? - Yes.
Lead event
#2 US Netflix Show this week? - HIS & HERS: Limited Series
Trading at 1.0% with $43K in volume.
Event leaders
Top volume: HIS & HERS: Limited Series | 1.0% | $43K
Top odds: 11.22.63: Season 1 | 82.0%
Oscar nominations for Best Picture?
Top volume: It Was Just an Accident | 65.0% | $34K
Top odds: Marty Supreme | 100.0%
Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Jan 2026?
Top volume: Bad Bunny | 4.0% | $28K
Top odds: Bruno Mars | 93.0%
Oscar nominations for Best Director?
Top volume: Chloé Zhao | 75.0% | $25K
Top odds: Paul Thomas Anderson | 100.0%
Popular events
Bitcoin Miners are Losing $8 , 000 for Each BTC Mined , Hashrate Drops
Bitcoin Miners are Losing $8 , 000 for Each BTC Mined , Hashrate Drops. Digital Asset Funds Drew in $2 . 17B Last Week , Highest Level in Three Months. Peter Schiff Says What Happening Now In Gold , Silver A Harbinger Of Brewing Financial Storm : Not A Positive For Bit....
Sources: coinspeaker.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00 at 22.0% with $42K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before January 2026.
Lead event
How high will Bitcoin get in January? - Above $100,000.00
Trading at 22.0% with $42K in volume.
Event leaders
How high will Bitcoin get in January?
Top volume & odds: Above $100,000.00 | 22.0% | $42K
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
Top volume & odds: Above $200000 | 15.0% | $26K
Top volume & odds: Before June 2026 | 13.0% | $25K
Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Top volume: $89,500 or above | 87.0% | $18K
Top odds: $86,000 or above | 100.0%
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top volume: Above $109999.99 | 71.0% | $15K
Top odds: Above $99999.99 | 84.0%
Ten potential Artemi Panarin destinations , from top - of - league teams to long shots. NHL weekend rankings : Rangers continue the statement fun with a sternly worded letter. Trump blasts NYSE Dallas expansion as unbelievably bad for New York.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, foxbusiness.com
Miami vs . Indiana - National Title Game Picks & Prediction
Miami vs . Indiana - National Title Game Picks & Prediction. bet365 bonus code NYPBET : Bet $5 , get $200 in bonus bets for Miami vs . Indiana. FanDuel Promo Code : Get $300 Bonus Bets for College Football National Championship.
Sources: thespread.com, nypost.com, covers.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL) at 27.0% with $6M traded.
Liquidity centers on College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL).
Lead event
College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana - Miami (FL)
Trading at 27.0% with $6M in volume.
Event leaders
College Football Championship: Miami vs Indiana
Top volume: Miami (FL) | 27.0% | $6M
Top odds: Indiana | 74.0%
Top volume & odds: Dallas | 97.0% | $4M
Top volume: Indiana wins by over 7.5 points | 49.0% | $4M
Top odds: Indiana wins by over 2.5 points | 72.0%
George Washington at George Mason
Top volume & odds: George Mason | 92.0% | $1M
Popular events
Veteran Meteorologist Nick Patrick joins WAND
Veteran Meteorologist Nick Patrick joins WAND. California Sierra Nevada Could Get Over 5 Feet of Snow This Week.
Sources: wandtv.com, theinertia.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 19, 2026? - 15° or below at 1.0% with $980K traded.
Liquidity centers on Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 19, 2026? - 15° or below.
Lead event
Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 19, 2026? - 15° or below
Trading at 1.0% with $980K in volume.
Event leaders
Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 19, 2026?
Top volume: 15° or below | 1.0% | $980K
Top odds: 18° to 19° | 100.0%
+$6,979
+$4,146
+$3,955
Kalshi via Jupiter
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