Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $47M across outcomes, with $3M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 47.0%, with top volume on "Michelle Bowman" at 3.0% and $685K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in Jan 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "Fed maintains rate" at 97.0%, with top volume on "Cut 25bps" at 4.0% and $331K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
AFC Championship Winner? - New England
$842K
Highest implied
Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco
100.0%
Most liquid
Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco
$8M
Volume leaders
AFC Championship Winner? - New England
$842K
70.0%
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman
$685K
3.0%
$638K
2.0%
Liquidity watch
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman leads the desk at 3.0% with $685K traded.
Lead stories
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case
Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case. Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case. AP Source : Fed Chair Powell to attend Supreme Court argument on Cook case.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, manilatimes.net, santafenewmexican.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Impeachment tracker.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $41M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps leads the desk at 4.0% with $331K traded.
Lead stories
Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve
Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve. Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve. Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve.
Sources: ocregister.com, orlandosentinel.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Kazakhstan set to boost economy real sector with financial support
Kazakhstan set to boost economy real sector with financial support. Corporates to register 6 % revenue rise in FY27 : Fitch. World Bank ups Zimbabwe growth forecast to 5 %.
Sources:
B4
Lead market: Best AI on January 24th? - ChatGPT leads the desk at 1.0% with $61K traded.
Lead stories
China Moonshot AI to close on another massive funding round after its two biggest rivals go public
China Moonshot AI to close on another massive funding round after its two biggest rivals go public. Humans &, a human - centric AI startup founded by Anthropic , xAI , Google alums , raised $480M seed round. AI startup Humans & raises $480 million at $4 . 5 billion valuation in seed round.
Sources: siliconangle.com, techcrunch.com, thestar.com.my
B5
Lead market: What will United Airlines say during their next earnings call? - Weather leads the desk at 1.0% with $146K traded.
Lead stories
A New Way to Fly Nonstop from Pittsburgh to Los Angeles
A New Way to Fly Nonstop from Pittsburgh to Los Angeles. United Airlines plane loses wheel after hard landing at Orlando airport. Airlines dropping flight change fees ahead of major winter storm.
Sources: pittsburghmagazine.com, independent.co.uk, wfaa.com
Voice of Hind Rajab director made film to bear witnes and not feel helpless
Voice of Hind Rajab director made film to bear witnes and not feel helpless. Razzies 2026 sees Natalie Portman , Robert De Niro and woke Snow White top list. Gold Derby final Oscar nominations predictions in all 24 categories.
B6
Lead market: When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before June 2026 leads the desk at 11.0% with $60K traded.
Lead stories
1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 000 %, According to Michael Saylor
1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 000 %, According to Michael Saylor. Billionaires Sell Amazon Stock and Buy a BlackRock ETF That Could Soar Up to 13 , 500 %, According to Wall Street Exp.... Billionaires Sell Amazon Stock and Buy a BlackRock ETF That Could Soar Up to 13 , 500 %, According to Wall Street Exp....
B7
Lead market: AFC Championship Winner? - New England leads the desk at 70.0% with $842K traded.
Lead stories
Seahawk George Holani designated to return to practice – KIRO 7 News Seattle
Seahawk George Holani designated to return to practice – KIRO 7 News Seattle. NFL playoff guide : How to watch , betting favorites and more. Blessington Bulletin.
Sources: kiro7.com, texarkanagazette.com, independent.ie
No . 8 Gonzaga aims to extend historic dominance of Pepperdine
No . 8 Gonzaga aims to extend historic dominance of Pepperdine. How is Gonzaga reinventing itself without Braden Huff and Graham Ike ? We had to do thing weve never dreamed of. Zags Insiders Podcast : New look , same results for Gonzaga minus Braden Huff , Graham Ike.
B8
Lead market: Highest temperature in Miami on Jan 21, 2026? - 71° or below leads the desk at 84.0% with $112K traded.
Lead stories
Trump storms Davos : How US president has insulted leading figures ahead of his arrival - including Macron about to l....
Sources: dailymail.co.uk
Historic winter storm spans US ; Northeast snow potential still uncertain
Historic winter storm spans US ; Northeast snow potential still uncertain.
Sources:
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$8M
27.0%
Sequoia , Ethos Technologies eyes $1 . 3 billion IPO. Federal government funding : Government shutdown looms : Congress unveils massive federal funding bill ahead of Janua.... Congress moves toward funding government , dodging shutdown.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, economictimes.indiatimes.com, adn.com
Iran warns attack on Ali Khamenei would trigger jihad
Iran warns attack on Ali Khamenei would trigger jihad. Spokesman for Iran armed forces warns Trump against taking action against Khamenei – Winnipeg Free Press. Iran accuses President Trump of fueling protests amid rising death toll.
Sources: jpost.com, winnipegfreepress.com, katu.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman at 3.0% with $685K traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Lead event
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Michelle Bowman
Trading at 3.0% with $685K in volume.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Michelle Bowman | 3.0% | $685K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 47.0%
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Shut down | 12.0% | $460K
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 6.0% | $217K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 46.0%
Democratic nominee for President in 2028?
Top volume: Mark Kelly | 4.0% | $170K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 35.0%
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
Top volume: Before February | 2.0% | $132K
Top odds: Before 2027 | 27.0%
Popular events
8.0%
0.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $12M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $8M0%
Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve
Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve. Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve. Supreme Court takes up case on independence of Federal Reserve.
Sources: courant.com, mcall.com, lowellsun.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps at 4.0% with $331K traded.
Liquidity centers on Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps.
Event leaders
Fed funds rate after Jan 2026 meeting?
Top volume: Above 3.75% | 2.0% | $12K
Top odds: Above 2.75% | 100.0%
Gas prices in the US in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above $2.85 | 68.0% | $10K
Top odds: Above $2.70 | 99.0%
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Top volume & odds: Up in 2025 | 96.0% | $8K
Popular events
€1 , 650 Main Event Moves on to Day 1b.
Sources: pokernews.com
Inside OpenAI Plan To Make Money
Inside OpenAI Plan To Make Money. Prediction : Nvidia Stock Will Be Worth This Much By Year - End 2026. Prediction : Nvidia Stock Will Be Worth This Much By Year - End 2026.
Sources: forbes.com, fool.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Best AI on January 24th? - ChatGPT at 1.0% with $61K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD? - Before 2026.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 14.0% | $17K
When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD?
Top volume: Before Jun 2026 | 42.0% | $10K
Top odds: Before 2027 | 58.0%
What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026?
Top volume: grok-4.1-thinking | 1.0% | $10K
Top odds: gemini-3-pro | 98.0%
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, dailymail.co.uk, goldderby.com
Netflix Controversial Stranger Things S5 Follow - Up Delivers One Last Hit With Millions of Views
Netflix Controversial Stranger Things S5 Follow - Up Delivers One Last Hit With Millions of Views. Did Finn Wolfhard shade the Stranger Thing creators on SNL ?. Finn Wolfhard SNL Opening Monologue Skewers STRANGER THINGS.
Sources: comicbook.com, lehighvalleylive.com, nerdist.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by What will United Airlines say during their next earnings call? - Weather at 1.0% with $146K traded.
Liquidity centers on Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? - Yes.
Lead event
What will United Airlines say during their next earnings call? - Weather
Trading at 1.0% with $146K in volume.
Event leaders
What will United Airlines say during their next earnings call?
Top volume: Weather | 1.0% | $146K
Top odds: Shutdown / Shut Down | 100.0%
Oscar nominations for Best Director?
Top volume: Chloé Zhao | 75.0% | $37K
Top odds: Paul Thomas Anderson | 100.0%
Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?) | 15.0% | $35K
Grammy Award for Song Of The Year?
Top volume & odds: Golden [From "KPop Demon Hunters"] | 66.0% | $35K
How many album sales will A$AP Rocky's Don't Be Dumb have on the chart dated Jan 23rd?
Top volume: At least 120,000 albums | 9.0% | $30K
Top odds: At least 30,000 albums | 100.0%
Wall Street in turn is hit by Trump threats. Grayscale Files for Near Protocol ETF. Markets stabilise following recent losses , but with trade tentative ahead of Trump at Davos - Newsquawk US Opening News.
Sources: marketscreener.com, insidebitcoins.com, zerohedge.com
Gold and Silver surge to record highs as Bitcoin and Ethereum slide lower
Gold and Silver surge to record highs as Bitcoin and Ethereum slide lower. Delaware Life Adds Bitcoin Exposure to Fixed Annuity via BlackRock. Bitcoin Posts and Search Interest Fell Significantly in 2025.
Sources: fxstreet.com, blockonomi.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before June 2026 at 11.0% with $60K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before January 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Before June 2026 | 11.0% | $60K
Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Top volume: $90,000 or above | 51.0% | $50K
Top odds: $83,000 or above | 100.0%
How high will Bitcoin get in January?
Top volume & odds: Above $100,000.00 | 12.0% | $47K
How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Above $99999.99 | 76.0% | $45K
Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?
Top volume & odds: Above $200000 | 13.0% | $41K
Sources: 1075thegame.com, spokesman.com, spokesman.com
Celtics vs . Pacers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 21
Celtics vs . Pacers Time , TV & Stream – Jan . 21. Best NBA Player Props Today for January 21 : Demin Range Activated. Celtics vs . Pacers Predictions , Odds & Stats – Jan . 21.
Sources: 790louisville.iheart.com, covers.com, 790louisville.iheart.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by AFC Championship Winner? - New England at 70.0% with $842K traded.
Liquidity centers on Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Boston | 91.0% | $610K
Popular events
Winter drought continues to deepen across Colorado , threatening spring water supply
Winter drought continues to deepen across Colorado , threatening spring water supply.
Sources: cpr.org
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Highest temperature in Miami on Jan 21, 2026? - 71° or below at 84.0% with $112K traded.
Liquidity centers on Lowest temperature in Denver on Jan 21, 2026? - 18° to 19°.
Lead event
Highest temperature in Miami on Jan 21, 2026? - 71° or below
Trading at 84.0% with $112K in volume.
Event leaders
Highest temperature in Miami on Jan 21, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 71° or below | 84.0% | $112K
Highest temperature in NYC on Jan 21, 2026?
Top volume: 35° to 36° | 1.0% | $94K
Top odds: 37° to 38° | 71.0%
Lowest temperature in Denver on Jan 21, 2026?
Top volume: 18° to 19° | 1.0% | $81K
Top odds: 17° or below | 100.0%
Snow in New York City in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 10.0 inches | 77.0% | $18K
Top odds: Above 3.0 inches | 96.0%
+$6,979
+$4,146
+$3,955
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard