Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?" Event volume totals $9M across outcomes, with $732K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Before September 1, 2026" at 43.0%, with top volume on "Before February 1, 2026" at 6.0% and $564K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in Jan 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "Fed maintains rate" at 98.0%, with top volume on "Cut 25bps" at 3.0% and $341K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
The American Express Winner - Scottie Scheffler
$715K
Highest implied
Oscar for Best Picture? - Wicked: For Good
100.0%
Most liquid
Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco
$8M
Volume leaders
Liquidity watch
B1
Lead market: Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader? - Before February 1, 2026 leads the desk at 6.0% with $564K traded.
Lead stories
Donald Trump vs Khamenei : US issues stern warning to Iran amid rising tensions , says US will wipe out Iran if ...,.... Why Iran Regime Didnt Collapse. Why Iran Regime Didnt Collapse.
Sources: india.com, foreignpolicy.com, foreignpolicy.com
B2
Daily nominee and control markets, updated with the tape.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $41M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps leads the desk at 3.0% with $341K traded.
Lead stories
Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump power to fire Fed official without proper review
Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump power to fire Fed official without proper review. US applications for jobless benefits inch up last week. US applications for jobless benefits inch up last week to a still - low 200 , 000.
Sources: yahoo.com, sandiegouniontribune.com, news4jax.com
B4
Lead market: Best AI on January 24th? - ChatGPT leads the desk at 1.0% with $72K traded.
Lead stories
Apple bets big that AI models will become commodities ; may offer hot - swappable Siri
Apple bets big that AI models will become commodities ; may offer hot - swappable Siri. AI could be one of the most dangerous technologies in history : Anthropic in Claude Constitution. 3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade.
Sources: macdailynews.com, businesstoday.in, fool.com
B5
Lead market: Oscar for Best Picture? - Sinners leads the desk at 21.0% with $208K traded.
Lead stories
Steven Spielberg Sets Record With 14 Oscar Nomination As A Producer
Steven Spielberg Sets Record With 14 Oscar Nomination As A Producer. Want to see Oscar nominees on the big screen ? Here when and where to see them in theaters. Want to see Oscar nominees on the big screen ? Here when and where to see them in theaters.
Sources: deadline.com, wcnc.com, 9news.com
B6
Lead market: Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST? - $90,000 or above leads the desk at 22.0% with $139K traded.
Lead stories
Annonce | Turn Your Phone into a Mining Rig ? BTC / ETH / XRP Holders Can Use DL Mining to Earn $1 - 10K Daily Passiv.... Here Are Wednesday Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls : Alibaba , Applied Digital , ARM Holdings , FedEx , Flutte.... US Futures , Global Markets Rally After Trump Greenland Pivot.
Sources: burkina24.com, finance.yahoo.com, zerohedge.com
B7
Lead market: The American Express Winner - Scottie Scheffler leads the desk at 34.0% with $715K traded.
Lead stories
Jeremy Jordan Will Take Over as Bobby Darin in JUST IN TIME
Jeremy Jordan Will Take Over as Bobby Darin in JUST IN TIME. B . A . A announces men pro field ahead of 130th Boston Marathon. Carrie Underwood Reveals Why She Nearly Didnt Release Before He Cheats.
Sources: broadwayworld.com, wmur.com, 1061thetwister.iheart.com
Jalen Duren SLAM Magazine cover T - shirt available at Fanatics
Jalen Duren SLAM Magazine cover T - shirt available at Fanatics. Veteran Detroit Lions OT reports as retired , plans to transition to coaching. Pistons , Rockets and Thunder have been the best in big games.
B8
Lead market: Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 23, 2026? - 4° or below leads the desk at 1.0% with $308K traded.
Lead stories
Arctic blast brings warnings , closures , cancellations to Chicago area
Arctic blast brings warnings , closures , cancellations to Chicago area. Huge US winter storm to bring crippling snow , sleet and ice from Texas to Boston. Huge US winter storm to bring crippling snow , sleet and ice from Texas to Boston.
Sources: chicagotribune.com, silive.com, wfmynews2.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Uganda internet shutdown : Slashed incomes and gamers go cold turkey. US Consumer Spending Rises for Second Month , Showing Holiday Strength. Uganda internet shutdown : Slashed incomes and gamers go cold turkey.
Sources: bbc.com, bloomberg.com, bbc.co.uk
Has Donald Trump finalised Jerome Powell successor as next Fed Chair ? We are maybe down to …
Has Donald Trump finalised Jerome Powell successor as next Fed Chair ? We are maybe down to …. Trump Fed chair search has a Wall Street twist. Kevin Hassett says new Fed chair should be an independent person who respects mandates.
Sources: livemint.com, cnn.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader? - Before February 1, 2026 at 6.0% with $564K traded.
Liquidity centers on Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Lead event
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader? - Before February 1, 2026
Trading at 6.0% with $564K in volume.
Event leaders
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?
Top volume: Before February 1, 2026 | 6.0% | $564K
Top odds: Before September 1, 2026 | 43.0%
Government shutdown on Jan 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Shut down | 9.0% | $425K
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Michelle Bowman | 1.0% | $378K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 47.0%
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Top volume: Before May 1, 2026 | 8.0% | $147K
Top odds: Before January 20, 2029 | 37.0%
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Top volume & odds: Before January 21, 2029 | 45.0% | $145K
Popular events
8.0%
0.0pp
$2M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $12M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $9M+13%
Japan inflation cools to 2 . 1 %, lowest since March 2022 , but rice prices loom large ahead of election. Consumers spent more , saved less in November as inflation rose to 2 . 8 %. Consumers spent more , saved less in November as inflation rose to 2 . 8 %.
Goldman Sachs raises 5 questions on deficits , debt and demand ahead of Union Budget FY27
Goldman Sachs raises 5 questions on deficits , debt and demand ahead of Union Budget FY27. Chart of the week : Australian Government balance sheet. India Billionaire Club Contracts In 2025.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, icaew.com, rediff.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps at 3.0% with $341K traded.
Liquidity centers on Fed decision in Jan 2026? - Cut 25bps.
Event leaders
More tech layoffs in 2025 than in 2024?
Top volume & odds: Up in 2025 | 97.0% | $16K
Popular events
3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade. Nvidia boss sees trillion in AI spending ahead. … like selling nuclear weapons to North Korea : Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Trump administration approving sale of....
Palantir Billionaire Peter Thiel Sells Nvidia Stock -- 100 % of His Portfolio Is Now Invested in 3 AI Stocks. AI bubble is here . All the money in tech cant keep it from popping . – Investment Watch Blog. OpenAI $50 Billion Middle East Gamble : Altman High - Stakes Push for AI Supremacy.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, investmentwatchblog.com, webpronews.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Best AI on January 24th? - ChatGPT at 1.0% with $72K traded.
Liquidity centers on Before 2027.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Before 2027 | 13.0% | $18K
Top volume & odds: Gemini | 97.0% | $14K
What will be the top AI model in Jan 2026?
Top volume: gpt-5.2 | 2.0% | $9K
Top odds: gemini-3-pro | 97.0%
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?
Top volume & odds: OpenAI | 95.0% | $4K
Popular events
Oscars 2026 : Sinners , Timothée Chalamet Making History. Oscars 2026 : Timothee Chalamet bags Best Actor nomination , becoming youngest male actor with three acting nods. Irish stars Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal tipped for Oscar nominations.
Sources: eonline.com, aninews.in, irishmirror.ie
8 Lingering Questions I Have After the Stranger Thing Series Finale
8 Lingering Questions I Have After the Stranger Thing Series Finale. Pluribus Finale Hits Nielsen Streaming High With 483 Million Minutes. MLB teams unveil atrocious Stranger Thing hats for 2026 season.
Sources: collider.com, thewrap.com, thebiglead.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Oscar for Best Picture? - Sinners at 21.0% with $208K traded.
Liquidity centers on Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?) | 19.0% | $62K
Oscar for Best Supporting Actor?
Top volume: Stellan Skarsgard | 61.0% | $43K
Top odds: Miles Caton | 100.0%
Popular events
Cleanspark Inc . ( CLSK ) Expands in Texas in Pursuit of AI and HPC Opportunities. Bitcoin Price Stability Sparks Recovery Hopes , But Hurdles Loom. Bitcoin Pro Traders Buy Dips , While Also Expecting More Downside.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, newsbtc.com, cointelegraph.com
Strategy Acquires 22 , 305 BTC for $2 . 13B as Total Holdings Hit 709 , 715 Bitcoin
Strategy Acquires 22 , 305 BTC for $2 . 13B as Total Holdings Hit 709 , 715 Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears ? A Reality Check. Cathie Wood ARK Invest Makes Bold Bitcoin and Nvidia Prediction.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST? - $90,000 or above at 22.0% with $139K traded.
Liquidity centers on When will Bitcoin hit $150k? - Before February 2026.
Lead event
Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST? - $90,000 or above
Trading at 22.0% with $139K in volume.
Event leaders
Bitcoin price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Top volume: $90,000 or above | 22.0% | $139K
Top odds: $84,000 or above | 100.0%
How high will Bitcoin get in January?
Top volume & odds: Above $100,000.00 | 8.0% | $55K
Top volume & odds: Before June 2026 | 11.0% | $33K
Ethereum price on Jan 23, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Top volume: $2,940 or above | 97.0% | $29K
Top odds: $2,900 or above | 100.0%
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Top volume: Before February 2026 | 10.0% | $25K
Top odds: Before July 2026 | 73.0%
Josh McDaniels shares first - hand intel on Broncos starting QB ahead of AFC title game
Josh McDaniels shares first - hand intel on Broncos starting QB ahead of AFC title game. Patriots wideout responds to Sean Payton comment : You can rest in Cancun. Sean Payton tells Broncos fans to prepare for Super Bowl.
Sources: masslive.com, bostonherald.com, masslive.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by The American Express Winner - Scottie Scheffler at 34.0% with $715K traded.
Liquidity centers on Pro Football Champion? - San Francisco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Scottie Scheffler | 34.0% | $715K
Top volume & odds: Detroit | 63.0% | $421K
Top volume & odds: New England | 69.0% | $419K
Top volume & odds: Boston | 77.0% | $378K
Top volume & odds: Seattle | 58.0% | $366K
Popular events
Vol $421K
NYC winter storm : Here what time snow could start Sunday ; 15+ inches possible. Winter storm watch issued in NYC for weekend snow. Opinion : An Un - MAGA Proposal to Bring Back American Manufacturing.
Sources: fox5ny.com, fox5ny.com, businessoffashion.com
Snow predicted in Virginia this week . Will it impact Petersburg area ?
Snow predicted in Virginia this week . Will it impact Petersburg area ?. How much snow could fall in southcentral Pa . this weekend ?. Ted Cruz seen on flight to California ahead of winter storm in Texas.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 23, 2026? - 4° or below at 1.0% with $308K traded.
Liquidity centers on Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 23, 2026? - 4° or below.
Lead event
Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 23, 2026? - 4° or below
Trading at 1.0% with $308K in volume.
Event leaders
Highest temperature in Chicago on Jan 23, 2026?
Top volume: 4° or below | 1.0% | $308K
Top odds: 7° to 8° | 100.0%
Highest temperature in NYC on Jan 23, 2026?
Top volume: 34° to 35° | 1.0% | $79K
Top odds: 38° to 39° | 92.0%
Snow in New York City in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 50.0% | $49K
Top odds: Above 3.0 inches | 100.0%
Snow in Washington DC in Jan 2026?
Top volume: Above 15.0 inches | 25.0% | $25K
Top odds: Above 0.1 inches | 100.0%
+$6,979
+$4,146
+$3,955
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard