Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US strikes Iran by...?" Event volume totals $160M across outcomes, with $160M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "February 3" at 100.0%, with top volume on "January 31" at 0.0% and $42M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 91.0%, with top volume on "25+ bps increase" at 2.0% and $13M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
US strikes Iran by...? - January 31
$42M
Highest implied
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Bill Pulte
100.0%
Top priced
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Bill Pulte
100.0%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US strikes Iran by...? - January 31 leads the desk at 0.0% with $42M traded.
Lead stories
Maintaining peace key to Iran and beyond
Maintaining peace key to Iran and beyond. Maintaining peace key to Iran and beyond.
Gold rebounds above $5 , 000 after US downs Iran drone
Gold rebounds above $5 , 000 after US downs Iran drone. Gold rebounds above $5 , 000 after US downs Iran drone. Trump Fed plan may have backfired with Powell staying on as chair.
B2
Awaiting market data for California governor 2026, Impeachment tracker.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $578M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - 25+ bps increase leads the desk at 2.0% with $13M traded.
Lead stories
Federal Reserve governor Miran steps down from White House post
Federal Reserve governor Miran steps down from White House post. Federal Reserve governor Miran steps down from White House post. Federal Reserve governor Miran steps down from White House post.
Sources: wcvb.com, wxii12.com, wmur.com
Thune accuses Democratic leaders of being afraid of their shadow as DHS fight rages on
Thune accuses Democratic leaders of being afraid of their shadow as DHS fight rages on. Internet Blackouts : A Strategy for Increased Censorship Revealed by Proton , ETTelecom. Countries using internet blackouts to boost censorship : Proton.
B4
Lead market: Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group leads the desk at 27.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Nifty IT drops up to 6 % on Anthropic tool launch
Nifty IT drops up to 6 % on Anthropic tool launch.
Sources: thehindu.com
FTSE 100 Live : London stocks retreat as LSEG , Pearson and Experian hit by AI worries
FTSE 100 Live : London stocks retreat as LSEG , Pearson and Experian hit by AI worries. FTSE 100 Live : London stocks retreat as RELX , LSEG , Experian hit by AI worries.
Sources: proactiveinvestors.co.uk,
B5
Lead market: New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - January 7 leads the desk at 0.0% with $15M traded.
Lead stories
Overwatch Heroes Are Getting Hotter , Here Why
Overwatch Heroes Are Getting Hotter , Here Why. People Who Spends Tons Of Money On Little Things But Never Make Big Purchases Usually Have These 11 Odd Traits. 5 Zodiac Signs Experience Great Horoscopes On February 4 , 2026.
Sources: kotaku.com, yourtango.com, yourtango.com
Must - See TV ! 25 Wildest Award Show Moments
Must - See TV ! 25 Wildest Award Show Moments. Timothee Chalamet Changes Into Sweats for Marty Supreme Premiere After - Party in Paris | Timothee Chalamet | Celebri.... The Best Director Oscar Race Is a Lot More Competitive Than We Think.
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - December 31, 2025 leads the desk at 0.0% with $18M traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Crashes Below $76K to $72K Lows MicroStrategy Feels the Heat
Bitcoin Crashes Below $76K to $72K Lows MicroStrategy Feels the Heat. Strategist Reaffirms $45 , 000 Bitcoin Target Despite Bearish Signal. Michael Burry Warns Bitcoin Selloff Risking a Death Spiral.
Sources: econotimes.com, el-balad.com, el-balad.com
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: econotimes.com
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Slavia Pragu leads the desk at 0.0% with $28M traded.
Lead stories
The greatest Chelsea lineup of all - time
The greatest Chelsea lineup of all - time. Transfer : Man United take decision on re - signing Cristiano Ronaldo. Gaston Edul : Cristian Romero to leave Tottenham in the summer.
Sources: theprideoflondon.com, dailypost.ng, caughtoffside.com
Kings vs . Grizzlies Time , TV & Stream – Feb . 4
Kings vs . Grizzlies Time , TV & Stream – Feb . 4. AP Trending SummaryBrief at 5 : 09 a . m . EST. AP Trending SummaryBrief at 9 : 20 a . m . EST.
Sources: ,
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 27.1% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
Carbon Offset / Carbon Credit Market Trends , Growth , and Analysis
Carbon Offset / Carbon Credit Market Trends , Growth , and Analysis. Green Hydrogen Australia : Powering a Clean Future. China coal plant building surges despite record renewable energy additions.
Sources: briefingwire.com, energymatters.com.au, asianews.network
Media Invokes Climate Bogeyman To Explain Africa Recurring Weather
Media Invokes Climate Bogeyman To Explain Africa Recurring Weather. Corporate America Confronts Patchwork of Climate Reporting Rules as 2026 Deadlines Loom. Editorial : Virginia poised to rejoin market - based carbon reduction program.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Here are the candidates for the Woodbridge District | Prince William
Here are the candidates for the Woodbridge District | Prince William. AP Decision Notes : What to expect in New Jersey special congressional primary. AP Decision Notes : What to expect in New Jersey special congressional primary – Winnipeg Free Press.
Sources: insidenova.com, news4jax.com, winnipegfreepress.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US strikes Iran by...? - January 31 at 0.0% with $42M traded.
Top volume remains in US strikes Iran by...? - January 31.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 2.1% | $35M
Top odds: Bill Pulte | 100.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Oprah Winfrey | 0.9% | $32M
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 32.0%
Portugal Presidential Election
Top volume & odds: Raul Perestrello (IND) | 100.0% | $19M
Popular events
5.9%
0.0pp
$4M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $232M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $237M0%
Gold , Silver Prices Today Live Updates : Gold , silver continue to rise after spectacular crash
Gold , Silver Prices Today Live Updates : Gold , silver continue to rise after spectacular crash. Silver rate today : COMEX silver crashes 10 %; is it the beginning of a big fall after the Hunt Brothers - like rally ?. Ex - Diamondbacks slugger Peralta retires after 11 - year career.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, livemint.com, abc7.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - 25+ bps increase at 2.0% with $13M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - 25+ bps increase.
Event leaders
How long will the Government Shutdown last?
Top volume: 4+ days | 0.0% | $4M
Top odds: 5+ days | 100.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↓ $4,700 | 0.0% | $709K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 55.8%
Popular events
What Anthropic Latest AI Tool Means for the Legal Software Industry
What Anthropic Latest AI Tool Means for the Legal Software Industry.
Sources: businessinsider.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group at 27.0% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group.
Lead event
Which companies will be acquired before 2027? - Nebius Group
Trading at 27.0% with $4M in volume.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Nebius Group | 27.0% | $4M
Top odds: Pizza Hut | 62.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 2.9% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Yes (Human moon landing in 2026?) | 6.5% | $2M
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.6% | $2M
Sources: blackamericaweb.com, justjared.com, indiewire.com
Ford needs to lower prices fast amid homebuilding inferno : Denley
Ford needs to lower prices fast amid homebuilding inferno : Denley. Ford needs to lower housing prices fast | The Community Press. Ford needs to lower housing prices fast | The County Weekly News.
Sources: nationalpost.com, communitypress.ca, countyweeklynews.ca
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - January 7 at 0.0% with $15M traded.
Top volume remains in New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - January 7.
Lead event
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? - January 7
Trading at 0.0% with $15M in volume.
Event leaders
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: January 7 | 0.0% | $15M
Top odds: December 31 | 8.0%
Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actor Winner
Top volume & odds: Stellan Skarsgård | 70.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GTA 6 cost $100+?) | 1.0% | $2M
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?
Top volume: December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | $2M
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 37.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?) | 10.0% | $2M
NASA Delays Artemis II Moon Launch Due To Issues During Fuel Test. NASA Delays Artemis II Moon Launch Due To Issues During Fuel Test. NASA Delays Artemis II Moon Launch Due To Issues During Fuel Test.
Sources: whyn.iheart.com, wsyr.iheart.com, 800wvhu.iheart.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - December 31, 2025 at 0.0% with $18M traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - December 31, 2025.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - December 31, 2025
Trading at 0.0% with $18M in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | $18M
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 28.0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: December 31 | 0.0% | $6M
Top odds: September 30 | 37.0%
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | $5M
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 55.0%
Bucks fans will vehemently vouch for Cooper Flagg new mentor
Bucks fans will vehemently vouch for Cooper Flagg new mentor. Shocking trade offers Bucks draft bust a golden opportunity. NBA Trade Update : Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis Still on Market.
Sources: behindthebuckpass.com, behindthebuckpass.com, el-balad.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Slavia Pragu at 0.0% with $28M traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Slavia Pragu.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 62.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Bucks | 52.0% | $1M
Champions League: Which teams advance to round of 16?
Top volume & odds: Newcastle United | 88.0% | $29K
Popular events
Winter Storm Fern losses seen as high as $6 . 7 billion
Winter Storm Fern losses seen as high as $6 . 7 billion. Technical Discussion : Snow , Arctic air & wind prompt First Alert Weather Days this weekend.
Sources: insurancebusinessmag.com, wfsb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 27.1% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Top volume: >1.19ºC | 1.9% | $177K
Top odds: 1.05–1.09ºC | 62.0%
Popular events
+$3,480
+$2,370
+$1,559
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard