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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" Event volume totals $474M across outcomes, with $12M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 95.7%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 2.7% and $5M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 94.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton
$5M
Highest implied
Logan Paul 1st edition Charizard Sale Price? - >600k
98.7%
Top priced
Logan Paul 1st edition Charizard Sale Price? - >600k
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 2.7% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process
Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process. Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process that could restrict his business life. GOP senator says he open to compromise on Trump nominee to chair the Federal Reserve.
Sources: yahoo.com, cbsnews.com, news4jax.com
Bangkok Post - Thailand reconsiders its foreign policy
Bangkok Post - Thailand reconsiders its foreign policy. Ukraine Parliament Speaker Makes Sanctions Case On Capitol Hill , Warns Against Prolonged Talks. Ukraine Parliament Speaker Makes Sanctions Case On Capitol Hill , Warns Against Prolonged Talks.
B2
Awaiting market data for Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $656M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - No change leads the desk at 94.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process
Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process. Tillis suggests Warsh faces long Fed chair nomination process that could restrict his business life. Small caps outperform after soft - leaning CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
Sources: yahoo.com, cbsnews.com, zerohedge.com
NextEra Energy board declares quarterly dividend
NextEra Energy board declares quarterly dividend. China targets value - driven auto market with new pricing rules , safety standards. Shanghai Municipal Administration of Culture and Tourism : Shanghai Records Surge in Inbound Tourism in 2025 , Welcom....
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google leads the desk at 26.0% with $202K traded.
Lead stories
Software Bear Market : 2 AI Stocks With 55 % and 92 % Upside to Buy Now , According to Wall Street
Software Bear Market : 2 AI Stocks With 55 % and 92 % Upside to Buy Now , According to Wall Street.
Sources: fool.com
Salesforce Employees Demand CEO Marc Benioff Cut Ties With ICE After Controversial Joke Sparks Backlash : Report - Sa.... Salesforce Reportedly Trims Workforce , Appoints New Leaders Amid AI Pivot - Amazon . com ( NASDAQ : AMZN ), Salesfor.... Nasdaq leads market declines as AI concerns weigh on tech stocks.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $353K traded.
Lead stories
LDS Church names Elder Clark G . Gilbert to Quorum of the Twelve Apostles - LocalNews8 . com
LDS Church names Elder Clark G . Gilbert to Quorum of the Twelve Apostles - LocalNews8 . com. Ex - pro arm wrestler & casino tycoon builds gigantic Jesus statue to rival Christ the Redeemer as local church fight.... Pastor Eric Vernelson Sr . Newly Released SONG OF SOLOMON : Pursuit of a Bride is a Heartfelt and Deeply Spiritual Ex....
Sources: localnews8.com, thesun.co.uk, pr.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000 leads the desk at 41.0% with $306K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin On - Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red
Bitcoin On - Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red. Bitcoin Hits Deep Value as RSI Plummets to 23 : Is the High - Conviction Bottom In ?. Bitcoin Weekly Forecast : BTC bears arent done yet.
Sources: newsbtc.com, coinspeaker.com, fxstreet.com
4 Signs That Bitcoin Is in the Early Stages of a Bear Market : How Long Could It Last ?
4 Signs That Bitcoin Is in the Early Stages of a Bear Market : How Long Could It Last ?. Bitcoin On The Brink But Will In Any Case Survive As A Niche , Collectible Asset , Founder Says. CleanSpark ( CLSK ) Stock Is Surging Friday : What Driving The Action ? - Cleanspark ( NASDAQ : CLSK ).
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham leads the desk at 2.3% with $341K traded.
Lead stories
Guys Ive Spoken To - Celtic New Boy Wowing Staff In Training
Guys Ive Spoken To - Celtic New Boy Wowing Staff In Training. Liverpool have gone big on Jacquet , but theyre not suckers. Battling Bremen braced for Bayern onslaught.
Sources: insidefutbol.com, empireofthekop.com, namibian.com.na
Lancashire Tourism Awards 2026 - full list of winners
Lancashire Tourism Awards 2026 - full list of winners. Czech teen Jilek wins men 10 , 000m speed skating gold at Milan - Cortina. Kazakhstan Takes Gold After Malinin Falls Twice.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 28.3% with $8K traded.
Lead stories
Hawaii environmental leaders condemn EPA rollback | Honolulu Star - Advertiser
Hawaii environmental leaders condemn EPA rollback | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. EPA rules greenhouse gases are no danger . What Wisconsin fallout ?. Six possible effects of Trump climate policy change.
Sources: staradvertiser.com, yahoo.com, ghanamma.com
Trump revokes basis of US fight against climate change
Trump revokes basis of US fight against climate change. What to know about EPA decision to revoke a scientific finding that helped fight climate change. Trump revokes basis of US climate regulation , ends auto emission standards.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: bangkokpost.com, globalsecurity.org, rferl.org
Iran says US GBU - 57 bombs and Tomahawk missiles remain at nuclear sites , alarms Washington and Israel.
Sources: zeenews.india.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 2.7% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 2.7% | $5M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 95.7%
Another US government shutdown by February 14?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Another US government shutdown by February 14?) | 1.2% | $4M
How many people will Trump deport in 2025?
Top volume & odds: 250-500k | 89.7% | $670K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?) | 4.0% | $614K
Popular events
5.4%
+0.8pp
$6M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $284M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $289M+2%
Why the Fed balance sheet could move mortgage rates sooner
Why the Fed balance sheet could move mortgage rates sooner. How much power does the Fed chair really have ?. Fed Leadership Changes Have Historically Raised Market Volatility.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, npr.org, investing.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - No change at 94.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 94.0% | $1M
Largest Company End of February?
Top volume & odds: Largest Company End of February? | 96.8% | $176K
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume: ↑ $5,500 | 14.7% | $39K
Top odds: ↓ $4,600 | 19.8%
Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of February?
Top volume & odds: ↓ $75 | 68.9% | $32K
Popular events
Risk off trade on more AI disruption fears - Newsquawk US Market Wrap
Risk off trade on more AI disruption fears - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
Sources: zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google at 26.0% with $202K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of February? - Google
Trading at 26.0% with $202K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of February?
Top volume: Google | 26.0% | $202K
Top odds: Anthropic | 69.7%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 52.0% | $13K
Bad Bunny halftime show and Turning Point : How many people watched in the US. Bad Bunny halftime show and Turning Point : How many people watched in the US. Super Bowl LX Bad Bunny hits 130 M+ viewers , beats TPUSA Kid Rock concert with 6M+ streams.
Sources: fox4news.com, fox29.com, moneycontrol.com
Watch Doctor Zhivago. Michelle Yeoh Gives Her Wicked : For Good Oscars Snub Theory. The Win Was Already In The Room For 2026 Oscars Nominees - Essence.
Sources: tcm.com, realitytea.com, essence.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.6% with $353K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.6% | $353K
# of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1?
Top volume: # of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1? | 26.9% | $150K
Top odds: # of views on Bad Bunny halftime show (YouTube) in week 1? | 73.0%
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume: Marty Supreme | 2.6% | $106K
Top odds: One Battle After Another | 76.0%
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 2.8% | $93K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 15.6% | $92K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, benzinga.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000 at 41.0% with $306K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in February? - ↑ 75,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in February?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 75,000 | 41.0% | $306K
What price will Bitcoin hit February 9-15?
Top volume: ↓ 64,000 | 1.4% | $65K
Top odds: ↓ 66,000 | 74.0%
Popular events
Sources: lancashiretelegraph.co.uk, thestar.com.my, newser.com
NBA Dunk Contest and 3 - Point Contest predictions for 2026 field
NBA Dunk Contest and 3 - Point Contest predictions for 2026 field.
Sources: sbnation.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham at 2.3% with $341K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Tottenham.
Event leaders
2026 Winter Olympics: Ice Hockey Gold Medal Winner
Top volume: Finland | 7.6% | $184K
Top odds: Canada | 54.0%
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 70.0% | $23K
Top volume & odds: Bucks | 68.0% | $9K
Popular events
Sources: perthnow.com.au, thetrucker.com, asia.nikkei.com
Trump revokes basis of US climate regulation , ends vehicle emission standards
Trump revokes basis of US climate regulation , ends vehicle emission standards. US repeals greenhouse gas endangerment ruling. EPA ruling on climate change could make Maine air harder to breathe.
Sources: straitstimes.com, pv-magazine.com, pressherald.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 28.3% with $8K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$3,480
+$3,370
+$3,361
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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