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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?" Event volume totals $59M across outcomes, with $45M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?)" at 97.3% and $45M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in March?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 94.1% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? - Yes
$45M
Highest implied
Bitcoin above ___ on March 1? - 62,000
98.9%
Top priced
Bitcoin above ___ on March 1? - 62,000
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
Bitcoin above ___ on March 1? - 62,000
98.9%
$192K
B1
Lead market: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? - Yes leads the desk at 97.3% with $45M traded.
Lead stories
Mouse Ali : Khamenei hidden network sustains his authoritarian rule from hiding
Mouse Ali : Khamenei hidden network sustains his authoritarian rule from hiding. Who Is Ali Larijani ? Khamenei Trusted Hand Central To Iran Succession Plan. Iran - US tensions : Has Supreme Leader Khamenei picked Ali Larijani to lead Islamic Republic ? – Firstpost.
Sources: yahoo.com, news18.com, firstpost.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner, Senate control 2026.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $733M+1%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in March? - No change leads the desk at 94.1% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
The Week Ahead : Earnings from Canadian Natural Resources , Costco
The Week Ahead : Earnings from Canadian Natural Resources , Costco. Trump expects his Fed pick and AI to deliver a replay of the 90s boom . Economists have doubts. Trump expects a replay of the 90s boom . Economists have doubts ..
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, economictimes.indiatimes.com, chicagotribune.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of March? - DeepSeek leads the desk at 2.9% with $31K traded.
Lead stories
US military used Claude AI in Iran strikes hours after Trump banned Anthropic : Report
US military used Claude AI in Iran strikes hours after Trump banned Anthropic : Report. OpenAI gives Pentagon AI model access after Anthropic dustup. Grok prediction on US - Israel strike on Iran goes viral ; Elon Musk reacts |.
Sources: firstpost.com, westhawaiitoday.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
The Deity Of Christ Is The Heart Of The Gospel
The Deity Of Christ Is The Heart Of The Gospel. Which Book of the Bible Best Explains the Gospel ? - Explore the Bible. Interview : Richard Rohr and the Universal Christ.
Sources: patheos.com, biblestudytools.com, americamagazine.org
NAACP Image Awards Winners List : Sinners , Kendrick Lamar , Michelle Obama
NAACP Image Awards Winners List : Sinners , Kendrick Lamar , Michelle Obama. The BAFTA British Flair Made Awards Season Fashion Fun Again. GhanaWeb Excellence Awards Visual Arts category.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit February 23-March 1? - ↓ 62,000 leads the desk at 4.0% with $249K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Shorts Pile Up As $3 billion In Liquidity Sits At $70K
Bitcoin Shorts Pile Up As $3 billion In Liquidity Sits At $70K. Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand Slows Down In 2026 : Here Why. Worse Than 2008 Urgent Fed Financial Crisis Warning Predicted To Blow Up The Bitcoin Price.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, forbes.com
B7
Lead market: Lakers leads the desk at 87.0% with $335K traded.
Lead stories
Lakers snap 3 - game skid , run away from Warriors behind Luka Doncic and LeBron James
Lakers snap 3 - game skid , run away from Warriors behind Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Lakers take charge at outset , run away from Warriors. Lakers snap 3 - game skid , run away from Warriors behind Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
Sources: ocregister.com, mercurynews.com, dailybreeze.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 21.5% with $2K traded.
Lead stories
Renewables cut energy costs by €1 . 5bn last year
Renewables cut energy costs by €1 . 5bn last year. Spore stays firm on climate goals ; will work on cross - border solutions like carbon credits : DPM Gan. Datacentre developers face calls to disclose effect on united kingdom net emissions | AI ( artificial intelligence ).
Sources: rte.ie, straitstimes.com, theguardian.com
South Africa carbon tax should stay : climate scientists explain why
South Africa carbon tax should stay : climate scientists explain why. Nickel Industries integrates climate risks into long - term strategy. Maruti Suzuki Gujarat rail project registered under Verra VCS , to earn 1 . 7 lakh carbon credits.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Ayatollah Khamenei Politics of Martyrdom. Ayatollah Khamenei Politics of Martyrdom. Who is Ali Larijani , insider tasked with steering Iran if Khamenei is assassinated ?.
Sources: foreignpolicy.com, foreignpolicy.com, moneycontrol.com
War powers debate intensifies after Trump orders attack on Iran
War powers debate intensifies after Trump orders attack on Iran. War powers debate intensifies after Trump orders attack on Iran. War powers debate intensifies after Trump orders attack on Iran without approval by Congress.
Sources: dailylocal.com, news-herald.com, marinecorpstimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? - Yes at 97.3% with $45M traded.
Top volume remains in Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? - Yes.
Lead event
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? - Yes
Trading at 97.3% with $45M in volume.
Event leaders
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?) | 97.3% | $45M
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?) | 97.8% | $20M
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?) | 36.3% | $4M
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 5.5% | $3M
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 91.3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 63.0% | $1M
5.8%
-0.5pp
$7M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $339M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $344M+1%
Trump expects his Fed pick and AI to deliver a replay of the 90s boom . Economists have doubts. Trump expects his Fed pick and AI to deliver a replay of the 90s boom . Economists have doubts – Winnipeg Free Press. Trump expects Fed pick , AI to bring replay of 90s boom . Economists have doubts.
Sources: newsday.com, winnipegfreepress.com, abcnews.com
Former Kelly+Partners executive Kristian Haigh resigned over fear for his safety
Former Kelly+Partners executive Kristian Haigh resigned over fear for his safety. Can Caterpillar Momentum Continue in 2026 and Beyond ?. Before Retiring , Warren Buffett Sold These 3 Stocks and Piled Into This High - Yield Investment.
Sources: afr.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in March? - No change at 94.1% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in March? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 94.1% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of March? | 91.0% | $28K
Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $120 | 61.8% | $11K
Popular events
Claude Climbs to No . 2 on App Store Amid Pentagon Row ; ChatGPT Nears 1B Users , Google Launches Nano Banana 2. Grok hasnt driven anyone to suicide , ChatGPT ha : Elon Musk in OpenAI lawsuit deposition | Technology News. Trump Ordered To Ban Anthropic , Later US Military Used Its Claude AI In Iran Strikes : Report.
Sources: dailypioneer.com, indianexpress.com, news18.com
Adrian Weckler : If youre looking for signs of a weird and creepy AI dystopia , youve come to the right place. FTSE 100 Live : London stocks retreat as LSEG , Pearson and Experian hit by AI worries. FTSE 100 Live : London stocks retreat as RELX , LSEG , Experian hit by AI worries.
Sources: independent.ie, proactiveinvestors.co.uk, proactiveinvestors.co.uk
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of March? - DeepSeek at 2.9% with $31K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of March? - DeepSeek.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of March? - DeepSeek
Trading at 2.9% with $31K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
Top volume: DeepSeek | 2.9% | $31K
Top odds: Anthropic | 59.4%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 2.1% | $18K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Ubisoft | 37.0% | $16K
Top odds: Viking Therapeutics | 62.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Mistral | 1.2% | $7K
Top odds: Anthropic | 37.2%
Popular events
Sources: variety.com, thewrap.com, ghanamma.com
Dracula North America Box Office : Vertical Lands Its Highest - Grosser As Luc Besson Film Almost Triples The Exorcis.... Mamma Mia 3 Gets Huge Update , Surprising Cast Return Teased. Ryan Coogler Sinner deserves every award - The Miami Student.
Sources: koimoi.com, comingsoon.net, miamistudent.net
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $1M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?) | 19.0% | $967K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 2.1% | $240K
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Top volume & odds: One Battle After Another | 77.0% | $46K
Popular events
You Can Earn Real Bitcoin for Playing This Mining Empire Game Should You Bother ?. Bitcoin Is Headed to $500 , 000 . This Wall Street Analyst Explains Why .. Bitcoin Is Headed to $500 , 000 . This Wall Street Analyst Explains Why ..
Sources: tech.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon
Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon. Like riding a bike : Oscar nominee Ethan Hawke on the magic of Blue Moon.
Sources: elkharttruth.com, heraldpalladium.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit February 23-March 1? - ↓ 62,000 at 4.0% with $249K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit February 23-March 1? - ↓ 62,000.
Lead event
What price will Bitcoin hit February 23-March 1? - ↓ 62,000
Trading at 4.0% with $249K in volume.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit February 23-March 1?
Top volume: ↓ 62,000 | 4.0% | $249K
Top odds: ↑ 70,000 | 36.0%
edgeX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $1B | 55.0% | $104K
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 52.0% | $90K
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 7.0% | $72K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 21.0%
Popular events
Zion Williamson Career - High Streak at Risk After Injury Exit in Pelicans - Jazz. Pelicans close 1st half strong to beat Jazz for 4th straight win. Pelicans beat Jazz for 4th straight win after Zion Williamson leaves game with ankle injury.
Sources: yardbarker.com, yardbarker.com, ksl.com
Prestianni suspended for one game as UEFA continues racist abuse investigation
Prestianni suspended for one game as UEFA continues racist abuse investigation. Champions League Draw 2026 Schedule of Dates for Round of 16 Bracket Fixtures. AZ Alkmaar to face Sparta Prague in UEFA Conference League last 16.
Sources: thecable.ng, bleacherreport.com, nltimes.nl
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Lakers | 87.0% | $335K
Top volume & odds: Pelicans | 78.0% | $215K
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC
Top volume & odds: Manchester United FC | 64.0% | $72K
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 75.0% | $742
Popular events
South Africa carbon tax should stay : climate scientists explain why
South Africa carbon tax should stay : climate scientists explain why. South Africa Carbon Tax Should Stay - Climate Scientists Explain Why. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup # 680.
Sources: theconversation.com, allafrica.com, wattsupwiththat.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 21.5% with $2K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$645
+$554
+$250
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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