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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $15M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 9.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in April?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 98.2%, with top volume on "25+ bps increase" at 1.1% and $873K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
March Inflation US - Annual - ≥2.8%
98.9%
Top priced
March Inflation US - Annual - ≥2.8%
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 7 leads the desk at 3.7% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Congress Attacks Modi Government Over US Remarks on Russian Oil
Congress Attacks Modi Government Over US Remarks on Russian Oil. Have almost 100 % attendance : Shashi Tharoor says Kerala polls may break his Parliament record - watch | India News. Angus Taylor rules out support for extra ACT Senate seats | The Canberra Times.
Sources: dailypioneer.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, canberratimes.com.au
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $984M0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in April? - 25+ bps increase leads the desk at 1.1% with $873K traded.
Lead stories
[ EXPLAINER ] Who counts as employer in Korea under new law ?
[ EXPLAINER ] Who counts as employer in Korea under new law ?. US inflation seen spiking in first snapshot since Iran war. Week Ahead for FX , Bonds : U . S . Inflation Data Will Be Watched Alongside Middle East Developments.
Sources: koreatimes.co.kr, moneycontrol.com, marketscreener.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 5.0% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
5 Things to Know About OpenAI Before Its IPO
5 Things to Know About OpenAI Before Its IPO. 5 Things to Know About OpenAI Before Its IPO.
Elon Musk sets this Grok condition condition for all Wall Street banks , law firms and auditors if they want to advis.... Fortune Tech : Microsoft revamps Copilot with Anthropic ; Sora post - mortem ; Mistral datacenter. XAI Cofounder Chaos , Rebuilding Is Vintage Elon Musk.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 18.0% with $157K traded.
Lead stories
Art of Glam Awards : Red Carpet & Honorees
Art of Glam Awards : Red Carpet & Honorees. Dhurandhar merchandise drops on AJIO ahead of sequel release ; collection features Ranveer Singh , Sara Arjun – signe.... Lionsgate Power Ballad among over 50 films screening at 2026 Desertscape International Film Festival | News.
Sources: eurweb.com, bollywoodhungama.com, stgeorgeutah.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 75.0% with $33K traded.
Lead stories
Analyst Identifies $63 , 000 As Key Support For Next Bitcoin Move
Analyst Identifies $63 , 000 As Key Support For Next Bitcoin Move. Goldman Sachs Says Bitcoin Bottom Is Near . Is It Time to Buy ?. Liberation Day Trump Tariff Shock Sends Bitcoin Toward $66K.
Sources: newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
B7
Lead market: Mavericks leads the desk at 82.0% with $363K traded.
Lead stories
FanDuel Promo Code : Claim up to $3 , 000 Bonus for Lakers vs . Mavericks , Sunday NBA Games
FanDuel Promo Code : Claim up to $3 , 000 Bonus for Lakers vs . Mavericks , Sunday NBA Games. DraftKings Promo Code : Get $200 Bonus Bets for Lakers - Mavericks , Any Sunday NBA Game. Lakers vs . Mavericks Injury Report – April 5.
Sources: covers.com, covers.com, am1300thezone.iheart.com
More than the Score - From Salah to LeBron : How do fans cope when their favourites leave ?
More than the Score - From Salah to LeBron : How do fans cope when their favourites leave ?. Mario Götze signs Eintracht Frankfurt contract extension. Bayern stage late comeback at Freiburg before Real Madrid showdown.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 15.0% with $1K traded.
Lead stories
Discover Effective Solutions Towards Climate Change Now
Discover Effective Solutions Towards Climate Change Now. Big tech was embracing clean energy and turning a corner on climate change . Then AI data centers arrived. AI Impact on Big Tech Climate Commitments : A Growing Fossil Fuel Dependency , ETTelecom.
Sources: emagazine.com, fortune.com, telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
98.8%
$98
Fed decision in April? - No change
98.2%
$385K
Trump endorsed this MAGA congressman twin . Will he make history ?. Saturday Night Live under fire over sick joke about Donald Trump being assassinated. Tinubu condoles with Prof Jega on wife death.
Sources: yahoo.com, mirror.co.uk, vanguardngr.com
Feds Arrest Terrorist Soleimani Nieces Living in U . S . – PJ Media
Feds Arrest Terrorist Soleimani Nieces Living in U . S . – PJ Media. President Trump Issues Tuesday Deadline For Iran to Open Straits of Hormuz. US Revokes Green Cards of Iran - Linked Individuals , Detains Them.
Sources: pjmedia.com, legalinsurrection.com, deccanchronicle.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 7 at 3.7% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran ceasefire by...? - April 7.
Event leaders
Trump out as President by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Trump out as President by April 30?) | 1.9% | $2M
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 3.5% | $1M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 61.0% | $970K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Stephen A. Smith | 1.7% | $708K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 24.2%
Popular events
7.1%
-0.6pp
$7M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $521M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $492M+1%
W & T Offshore ( WTI ) Falls Behind Expectations in Q4 2025. EIA Ups WTI Price Forecast by $20 in Wake of Iran Conflict. The Brent WTI Spread : The Market Take on Iran.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, rigzone.com, investing.com
Only nine commercial ships detected crossing Hormuz Strait since Monday
Only nine commercial ships detected crossing Hormuz Strait since Monday. IRGC claims to have struck oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz , UKMTO issues warning in area. Morgan Stanley raises oil price forecasts as Hormuz risk premium builds , Brent nears $90.
Sources: bssnews.net, yahoo.com, businesstoday.in
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in April? - 25+ bps increase at 1.1% with $873K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in April? - 25+ bps increase.
Event leaders
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 3.6% | $576K
Top odds: ↑ $120 | 76.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 14.0% | $286K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.1% | $279K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 96.3%
Popular events
SpaceX stratospheric IPO hopes , OpenAI ridiculous round and the agentic AI gap
SpaceX stratospheric IPO hopes , OpenAI ridiculous round and the agentic AI gap. OpenAI raises $122 billion in boosted funding round. Elon Musk xAI Loses Last Original Co - Founder Ahead Of SpaceX IPO : Report.
Sources: siliconangle.com, digitaljournal.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 5.0% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 5.0% with $38K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 5.0% | $38K
Top odds: Anthropic | 91.0%
Popular events
Eurovision INFE Poll 2026 : Returns for its 10th edition.
Sources: esctoday.com
Church First Presidency shares Easter message
Church First Presidency shares Easter message. Christ Is King . Stop Using His Name in Vain .. GMG Productions , David Ian For Crossroads Live and Work Light Productions Presents The Regent Park Open Air Theatre....
Sources: ksl.com, townhall.com, portal.sina.com.hk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 18.0% with $157K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 18.0% with $157K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $157K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 37.6% | $131K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $93K
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
Top volume & odds: 190-200m | 72.4% | $79K
Popular events
Sources: benzinga.com
Crypto Presale 2026 HyperDrive : Blazpay AI - Powered DeFi Engine
Crypto Presale 2026 HyperDrive : Blazpay AI - Powered DeFi Engine. Crypto Market Recap : War Pressures BTC ; Quantum Computers Eye Bitcoin ; Ethereum Foundation Goes All - In on Stakin.... Should You Forget Ethereum and Buy This Cryptocurrency Instead ?.
Sources: openpr.com, banklesstimes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 at 75.0% with $33K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 55,000 | 75.0% | $33K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 41.0% | $19K
Top odds: >$600M | 73.0%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 47.0% | $14K
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30 | 11.0% | $10K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 34.0%
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bundesliga.com, vanguardngr.com
Arsenal season has narrowed . Can Mikel Arteta galvanise squad with so much still at stake ?
Arsenal season has narrowed . Can Mikel Arteta galvanise squad with so much still at stake ?. Micah Richards claims Arsenal would absolutely batter Champions League giants | Football. Trump latest news : Bombshell proof POTUS is at White House ; new West Wing detail out.
Sources: nytimes.com, metro.co.uk, hindustantimes.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Mavericks | 82.0% | $363K
Top volume & odds: Magic | 70.0% | $232K
Top volume & odds: Devils | 94.0% | $26K
Popular events
AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels. CT experts talk reach of EPA climate ruling . Americans understand. AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels.
Sources: ksat.com, courant.com, clickorlando.com
AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels
AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels. AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels. AI arrival complicates Big Tech climate goals , and some worry it locking in more fossil fuels.
Sources: ocregister.com, orlandosentinel.com, courant.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 15.0% with $1K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$7,322
+$1,900
+$1,750
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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