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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $15M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?" Highest implied odds are for "↓ $90" at 82.0%, with top volume on "↑ $200" at 1.4% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
$294
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 2.4% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
IDF strikes in heart of Tehran : 400 targets destroyed in 48 hours
IDF strikes in heart of Tehran : 400 targets destroyed in 48 hours. Pahlavi : Iranian Regime Invite Iraqi Jihadis in , Foreign Occupiers. Iranian regime has lost the war , its entire leadership : Former Israeli spokesperson Eylon Levy.
Sources: israelnationalnews.com, pjmedia.com, aninews.in
PM Modi is using proposed changes in Women Reservation Act as election issue : Jairam Ramesh
PM Modi is using proposed changes in Women Reservation Act as election issue : Jairam Ramesh. Use of nuclear weapons can never be justified : Rahul Gandhi on Trump civilization will die threat to Iran. With Trump set to address nation , Democrats hit Susan Collins over Iran vote.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $200 leads the desk at 1.4% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
crude oil update : Why are oil prices nearing $110 , and will Brent and US WTI crude futures continue to rise or fall.... US Oil Premiums Hit Record High As World Scrambles For Crude. US crude premiums climb to record levels as Asia , Europe compete for supply.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, zerohedge.com, asiaone.com
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 30.0% with $73K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Claude popularity with paying consumers is skyrocketing
Anthropic Claude popularity with paying consumers is skyrocketing. Accel VC Says Vibe Coding Can Support Both Cursor and Claude Code. Anthropic Announces Claude Code , Cowork Can Now Accomplish Tasks on Mac.
Sources: businessghana.com, businessinsider.com, techtimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $813K traded.
Lead stories
Church First Presidency shares Easter message
Church First Presidency shares Easter message. Christ Is King . Stop Using His Name in Vain .. GMG Productions , David Ian For Crossroads Live and Work Light Productions Presents The Regent Park Open Air Theatre....
Sources: ksl.com, townhall.com, portal.sina.com.hk
B6
Lead market: Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $300M leads the desk at 33.0% with $44K traded.
Lead stories
Family and domestic violence offenders rise by 8 per cent
Family and domestic violence offenders rise by 8 per cent. Morgans names 3 ASX shares to buy now. Australia Sees 8 % Rise in Domestic Violence Offenders.
Sources: abs.gov.au, fool.com.au, miragenews.com
Is Bitcoin Still Your Ticket to Becoming a Crypto Millionaire ?
Is Bitcoin Still Your Ticket to Becoming a Crypto Millionaire ?. Current price of Bitcoin for March 20 , 2026. Current price of Bitcoin for March 19 , 2026.
Sources:
B7
Lead market: Hornets leads the desk at 55.0% with $479K traded.
Lead stories
Celtics vs . Hornets Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 29 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate
Celtics vs . Hornets Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 29 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate. Celtics vs . Hornets Time , TV & Stream – March 29 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate. Celtics vs . Hornets Injury Report – March 29 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate.
Sources: 1049foxsports.iheart.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 89.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Measles cases in U.S. in 2026.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports for this desk.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports for this desk.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 89.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.9%
$107
How Russia is shaping Hungary high - stakes election
How Russia is shaping Hungary high - stakes election. Viktor Orbán Putin Phonecall : 5 revelations from a leaked October transcript. UDF to win 100+ seats in Kerala : Congress state chief Sunny Joseph.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, el-balad.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes at 2.4% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 2.4% | $2M
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Top volume: April 15 | 73.6% | $1M
Top odds: December 31 | 94.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 23.0% | $1M
Trump out as President by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Trump out as President by April 30?) | 2.1% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 9.0% | $763K
Popular events
5.8%
—
$8M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $529M
Presidential election
Event volume $500M
Trump Strait of Hormuz renaming controversy explained : Trump bold move : Rename Strait of Hormuz after America or hi.... India among friendly nation listed by Iran for big Strait of Hormuz reprieve. us iran war : Has Iran planted mines in Strait of Hormuz , and who will win control of the crucial sea passage ? Here....
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, hindustantimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
YETI Most Portable Chair Yet : Trailhead Field Chair Review
YETI Most Portable Chair Yet : Trailhead Field Chair Review. Dunelm £29 camping chair dubbed perfect for gardens. Dunelm shoppers nab perfect colour accent chair at 30 % off.
Sources: gearjunkie.com, express.co.uk, liverpoolecho.co.uk
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $200 at 1.4% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $200.
Lead event
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026? - ↑ $200
Trading at 1.4% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.4% | $1M
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 82.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 53.0% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.8% | $708K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 96.6%
Doritos prices jumped 50 % in four years and PepsiCo waited until it lost billions to do something.
Sources: fortune.com
Arm Stock Could Win As Agentic AI Shifts The Bottleneck To CPUs ( NASDAQ : ARM )
Arm Stock Could Win As Agentic AI Shifts The Bottleneck To CPUs ( NASDAQ : ARM ). Australian banks v Big Tech : Why Commonwealth Bank and others are worried about Apple and Google. us tech job layoffs 2026 reasons explained : Fired by Oracle , Meta ? Goldman Sachs warns laid - off tech workers - j....
Sources: seekingalpha.com, brisbanetimes.com.au, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 at 30.0% with $73K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: Google | 3.4% | $38K
Top odds: Anthropic | 92.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPAX | 2.0% | $34K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 79.3%
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 95.9% | $7K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 92.0% | $6K
Popular events
Julia Garner Stars in Madonna Movie Revival in The Studio Season 2. Sneaker Con Doha set to energise streetwear scene in Qatar. Vaazha 2 box office collection day 5 : Savin S . A film maintains strong momentum , nears Rs 80 crore | Malayalam Mov....
The NBA Keeps Shoveling Hard , but Theyre Digging the Hole Deeper
The NBA Keeps Shoveling Hard , but Theyre Digging the Hole Deeper. AP source : UNC finalizing deal to hire Malone as men basketball coach | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette. North Carolina hires NBA championship - winning coach Michael Malone to lead Tar Heels.
Sources: blazersedge.com, arkansasonline.com, wlos.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $813K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $813K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $103K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.7% | $21K
Popular events
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes. Sioux City Schools to pay Jim Vanderloo $6k stipend for work as acting superintendent. Horrifying moment stalker nearly chokes woman to death after tormenting her for months and trying to contact her 234....
Sources: econotimes.com, siouxcityjournal.com, dailymail.co.uk
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $300M at 33.0% with $44K traded.
Top volume remains in Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $300M.
Event leaders
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 71.0% | $23K
Top odds: $50M | 96.0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$1B | 36.0% | $20K
Top odds: >$600M | 71.0%
FourFourTwo Champions League Predictor : Guess the Round of 16 second leg and play against your friends. How will Barcelona line up against Atlético Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League quarter - finals ?. Late Kai Havertz goal earns Arsenal valuable first - leg win at Sporting Lisbon.
Sources: fourfourtwo.com, barcablaugranes.com, aol.co.uk
Golden State Warriors vs Brooklyn Nets LIVE Score Updates : Q3 ( 65 - 71 ) | 03 / 25 / 2026
Golden State Warriors vs Brooklyn Nets LIVE Score Updates : Q3 ( 65 - 71 ) | 03 / 25 / 2026. Springfield TAC Industries lands $22M Air Force contract to make cargo nets .. Hornets vs . Nets Predictions , Odds & Stats – March 31 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate.
Sources: vavel.com, daytondailynews.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Hornets | 55.0% | $479K
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 3.5% | $322K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 30.0%
Top volume & odds: Nets | 77.0% | $239K
Top volume & odds: Thunder | 95.0% | $200K
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Top volume: Bryson Dechambeau | 7.0% | $190K
Top odds: Scottie Scheffler | 14.0%
Popular events
Event leaders
Popular events
+$14,923
+$5,225
+$1,900
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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