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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes, with $5M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.8% and $5M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?" Highest implied odds are for "Kevin Warsh" at 93.6%, with top volume on "Judy Shelton" at 1.7% and $696K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$5M
Highest implied
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - June 30
98.2%
Top priced
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - June 30
98.2%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 8.8% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
China - Taiwan relations : Opposition leader Cheng Li - wun visits Beijing , expected to meet with Xi Jinping. Taiwan opposition leader arrives in China | The Arkansas Democrat - Gazette. EDITORIAL : KMT video sparks a backlash.
Sources: theage.com.au, arkansasonline.com, taipeitimes.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton leads the desk at 1.7% with $696K traded.
Lead stories
NY Fed Chief John Williams Claims Powell Can Remain Chair After Term Expires
NY Fed Chief John Williams Claims Powell Can Remain Chair After Term Expires. Senate committee delays Fed nominee hearing , Punchbowl reports. Senate committee delays Fed nominee hearing , Punchbowl reports.
Sources: breitbart.com, yahoo.com, marketscreener.com
Powell Says No Rate Hike Needed to Fight Oil Shock : Here Is Why Investors Should Not Declare Victory on Inflation Ju.... Continuing Jobless Claims Tumble To 2 - Year Lows. Trading Day : Ceasefire sends stocks higher.
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 16.0% with $171K traded.
Lead stories
AI in danger : Anthropic dangerous bot raises alarm
AI in danger : Anthropic dangerous bot raises alarm. Project Glasswing aims to secure the world software , and Anthropic mythology. AI - pocalypse : Anthropic sparks fears after developing a dangerou bot capable of hacking into hospitals , electrica....
Sources: gazetaexpress.com, hindustantimes.com, dailymail.co.uk
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $960K traded.
Lead stories
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Shalom and Truth
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Shalom and Truth. Book review : The Blood that Heals. Big Night of Musicals 2026 by the National Lottery.
Sources: freerepublic.com, the-star.co.ke, tvguide.co.uk
6 Things To Do : April 10 - 12
6 Things To Do : April 10 - 12. Featured Athens Weekend Preview : Normaltown Music Festival , Amazing Art Expo , Africa Night , Sense & Sensibility a.... Fresh Coast Film Festival Traverse City to host Northern Michigan premiere of An Autumn Summer.
B6
Lead market: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M leads the desk at 73.0% with $30K traded.
Lead stories
FinancialContent - Federated Hermes U . S . Strategic Dividend ETF ( NYSE : FDV ) Stock Quote
FinancialContent - Federated Hermes U . S . Strategic Dividend ETF ( NYSE : FDV ) Stock Quote. 2 Low - Volatility ETFs Built for the Choppy Market We Are Seeing in April 2026. 2 Low - Volatility ETFs Built for the Choppy Market We Are Seeing in April 2026.
Sources: markets.financialcontent.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Scottie Scheffler leads the desk at 20.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
McIlroy ready for early start as 90th Masters begins
McIlroy ready for early start as 90th Masters begins. Former Major Champion Kicked Out Of Masters Grounds. Former Major Champion Kicked Out Of Masters Grounds.
Sources: thepeninsulaqatar.com, 600wmtradio.iheart.com, wjbt.iheart.com
Kompany heaps praise on special Neuer display
Kompany heaps praise on special Neuer display. In photos : The story of Andy Robertson nine years at Liverpool. Leon Goretzka : Juventus ready to rival United in transfer race - Man United News And Transfer News.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 14.0% with $7K traded.
Lead stories
Banff Half Marathon Completes 2025 Emissions Assessment , Supporting Climate Action with Karbon - X
Banff Half Marathon Completes 2025 Emissions Assessment , Supporting Climate Action with Karbon - X. Banff Half Marathon Completes 2025 Emissions Assessment , Supporting Climate Action with Karbon - X. Banff Half Marathon Completes 2025 Emissions Assessment , Supporting Climate Action with Karbon - X.
Sources: hawaiitelegraph.com, newjerseytelegraph.com, parisguardian.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Fed decision in April? - No change
98.1%
$590K
Ukraine ceasefire back in focus as US security guarantees fade and casualties surge. Ukraine Turns To Middle East As U . S . And EU Aid Slows Amid Iran War. Ukraine and Russia to cease fire for Orthodox Easter.
Sources: theguardian.com, forbes.com, rte.ie
Ceasefire or no ceasefire , the Middle East reshuffling is not yet done
Ceasefire or no ceasefire , the Middle East reshuffling is not yet done. Trump Says U . S . Military Stays Around Iran Until Regime Complies With Ceasefire Agreement. President Donald Trump , do not betray the Iranian people !.
Sources: bbc.com, pjmedia.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes at 8.8% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?) | 8.8% | $5M
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?) | 4.2% | $2M
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 2.6% | $1M
6.4%
+0.3pp
$8M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $540M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $511M+1%
Sources: fool.com, zerohedge.com, marketscreener.com
Iran tightens grip over Hormuz , says no more than 15 ships allowed per day : Report
Iran tightens grip over Hormuz , says no more than 15 ships allowed per day : Report. Iran Allows Limited Passage in Strait of Hormuz Amid Ceasefire , Future Uncertain. Iran announces alternative routes in Hormuz strait - Middle East and Africa.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, dailypioneer.com, thejakartapost.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton at 1.7% with $696K traded.
Top volume remains in Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair? - Judy Shelton.
Event leaders
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.7% | $696K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 93.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 25.0% | $420K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 27.0% | $396K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 93.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (US recession by end of 2026?) | 25.0% | $63K
Popular events
Elon Musk , Telegram CEO say cant trust WhatsApp ; Meta hits back at absurd claims. Elon Musk elevates Indian - origin trio to leadership roles in xAI overhaul. Tesla Is Working On A Smaller SUV Musk Once Called Pointless , Report Says.
Sources: aninews.in, economictimes.indiatimes.com, carscoops.com
Buy This AI Stock to Own SpaceX Pre - IPO and Hold It Through the Robotaxi Boom
Buy This AI Stock to Own SpaceX Pre - IPO and Hold It Through the Robotaxi Boom. Anthony Scaramucci Said He Not Missing SpaceX , Even If The Valuation Is Off The Chart - Tesla ( NASDA. Indian - origin engineers gain leadership roles as Musk xAI undergoes major overhaul ahead of SpaceX IPO Who are they ?.
Sources: fool.com, benzinga.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 at 16.0% with $171K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.6% | $42K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 93.0% | $24K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPACE | 1.4% | $11K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 66.7%
Popular events
Sources: clickorlando.com, redandblack.com, 9and10news.com
The wild four - man race for the NBA MVP award
The wild four - man race for the NBA MVP award. Breaking News - ESPN NBA Schedule Update : Two Matchups Added for Final Day of Regular Season on April 12. Inside the NBA MVP race : Gilgeous - Alexander favored to win again , but there may be some intrigue.
Sources: rappler.com, thefutoncritic.com, texarkanagazette.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $960K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $960K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $143K
Top volume & odds: Finland | 39.7% | $54K
Popular events
Bitcoin BTC USD price crash prediction to zero : He predicted 2008 crash now he says Bitcoin ( BTC USD ) could collap.... Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : BTC Holds $70K Support as IBIT Signals Bullish Momentum Toward $74K Breakout. Bitcoin Going To Zero , Says Economist Who Predicted 2008 Crash Does His Reasoning Have Merit ?.
Are There Any Bitcoin Mining Stocks Worth Buying Right Now ?
Are There Any Bitcoin Mining Stocks Worth Buying Right Now ?. Bitcoin Is Down 42 %. Here Are 3 Reasons Why It a No - Brainer Buy in March .. Bitcoin Is Down 42 %. Here Are 3 Reasons Why It a No - Brainer Buy in March ..
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M at 73.0% with $30K traded.
Top volume remains in Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M.
Lead event
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
Trading at 73.0% with $30K in volume.
Event leaders
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 73.0% | $30K
Top odds: $50M | 96.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.0% | $25K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 14.0%
Top volume: by June 30, 2026 | 2.4% | $22K
Top odds: by December 31, 2026 | 10.0%
Popular events
Ariana Grande 8th Album : Everything We Know
Ariana Grande 8th Album : Everything We Know.
Sources: elle.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Scottie Scheffler at 20.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Scottie Scheffler.
Lead event
Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Scottie Scheffler
Trading at 20.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Top volume: Scottie Scheffler | 20.0% | $1M
Top odds: Rory McIlroy | 24.0%
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 7.5% | $718K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 30.0%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Top volume: DN SOOPers | 6.0% | $77K
Top odds: T1 | 95.0%
Top volume & odds: Mercedes | 74.0% | $2K
Popular events
Europe Solar Inverter Market Trends and Forecast Analysis. Hurricane season 2026 : Below - average season forecast by Colorado State. Hurricane season 2026 : Below - average season forecast by Colorado State.
Sources: briefingwire.com, fox5atlanta.com, fox29.com
Ulu Padas reservoir certified as low - carbon under global GHG assessment tool
Ulu Padas reservoir certified as low - carbon under global GHG assessment tool. Climate Change Mitigation Commitment from Our Food Systems. Putrajaya , Sarawak form special committee on carbon policy.
Sources: waterpowermagazine.com, gainhealth.org, freemalaysiatoday.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 14.0% with $7K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$3,515
+$3,499
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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