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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed decision in April?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 98.0% and $988K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - April 15
98.8%
Top priced
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? - April 15
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Russia , Ukraine set Easter truce as Kyiv gains drone advantage
Russia , Ukraine set Easter truce as Kyiv gains drone advantage. After months of deadlock , Is a Russia - Ukraine deal finally within reach ?. Russia and Ukraine agree two day ceasefire for Orthodox Easter.
Sources: upi.com, moneycontrol.com, lbc.co.uk
Hungary election could end Orbán journey from liberal to far - right
Hungary election could end Orbán journey from liberal to far - right. How Hungary voters could end Orban 16 - year rule. Elections in Hungary : Putin poodle Viktor Orbán is a disgrace – The Irish Times.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed decision in April? - No change leads the desk at 98.0% with $988K traded.
Lead stories
Kraken Reveals Fed Account Bars Interest and Emergency Lending
Kraken Reveals Fed Account Bars Interest and Emergency Lending. Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination delayed as Senate hearing is pushed past next week. Crypto giant Kraken Fed payment account sparks concerns about risks.
Sources: pymnts.com, nypost.com, marketscreener.com
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 9.0% with $57K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Claude Mythos AI fears trigger $2 trillion wipeout in IT stocks ; JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns AI will li.... Vance , Bessent questioned tech giants on AI security before Anthropic Mythos release , CNBC reports. Why Palantir stock is rebounding after recent slump ; Trump , Claude angle emerges.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, thestar.com.my, hindustantimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $251K traded.
Lead stories
What is Life ? What is the Purpose of LIfe ?
What is Life ? What is the Purpose of LIfe ?. [ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Faith & Hope vs . Fear & Despair. I am trying to be as perfect as Jesus , Ayra Starr makes bold declaration – P . M . News.
Sources: biblestudytools.com, freerepublic.com, pmnewsnigeria.com
SilverVox Film & Music Festival Unveils Venues for 2026 Inaugural Event
SilverVox Film & Music Festival Unveils Venues for 2026 Inaugural Event. Jerry Weintraub Collection heads to Julien Auctions. Train to Busan Director New Zombie Movie Colony Scores Cannes Debut.
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 8.6% with $45K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Creator Finally Unmasked ?
Bitcoin Creator Finally Unmasked ?. Iran Announces Acceptance of Bitcoin for Strait of Hormuz Transit Fees – NaturalNews . com. The Satoshi Banksy of Bitcoin mystery delivers a small - cap angle worth watching.
Sources: marketscreener.com, naturalnews.com, dailymail.co.uk
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
B7
Lead market: Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy leads the desk at 71.0% with $661K traded.
Lead stories
Scheffler , Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts
Scheffler , Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts. McIlroy makes flying start to Masters second round , Rose the clubhouse leader. Keep the Masters the way it is.
Sources: ktbs.com, the42.ie, americanthinker.com
Champions League : Bayern Munich midfielder Karl ruled out of Real Madrid clash due to injury
Champions League : Bayern Munich midfielder Karl ruled out of Real Madrid clash due to injury. Champions League : Bayern Munich midfielder Karl ruled out of Real Madrid clash due to injury. Benni : It will be amazing for SA football if Pi ….
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 14.0% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
State climate laws targeted around U . S . as Iran war spikes gas prices
State climate laws targeted around U . S . as Iran war spikes gas prices. Whiplash weather : Europe hit with second - warmest March on record after exceptionally wet February. Ulu Padas reservoir certified as low - carbon under global GHG assessment tool.
Sources: nny360.com, euronews.com, waterpowermagazine.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: capitalgazette.com, marketscreener.com, irishtimes.com
The Most Insanely Idiotic Criticisms of the Iran Conflict
The Most Insanely Idiotic Criticisms of the Iran Conflict. The Iran regime Internet blackout is silencing millions and hiding executions , Iranian writer says. Other voices : No victory yet for the Iranian people.
Sources: redstate.com, nypost.com, twincities.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? - Yes at 3.3% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?) | 3.3% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 2.9% | $992K
Trump out as President by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Trump out as President by April 30?) | 1.5% | $720K
Popular events
6.7%
+0.3pp
$8M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $542M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $513M0%
Dishonourable !: Trump says Iran doing a very poor job as ship traffic slumps in Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire. Iran doing very poor job : Trump warns Tehran against charging tankers passing through Hormuz. Trump blasts dishonorable Iran over its handling of Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: livemint.com, indiatvnews.com, nypost.com
Prince Harry sued for defamation by his former charity Sentebale
Prince Harry sued for defamation by his former charity Sentebale. Multnomah County board approves new homeless services director , but not without reservations. Grand National 2026 race time , when it finishes and number of fences.
Sources: hellomagazine.com, kgw.com, manchestereveningnews.co.uk
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed decision in April? - No change at 98.0% with $988K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed decision in April? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.0% | $988K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 21.0% | $444K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.6% | $277K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.4%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.4% | $209K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 93.0%
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of April? | 98.4% | $135K
Popular events
Anthropic Claude Mythos : New AI models sparks fear in banks
Anthropic Claude Mythos : New AI models sparks fear in banks. Investors can cash - in as space travel and AI take us into the new age. CoreWeave Shares Jump on Multi - Year AI Deal With Anthropic.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, dailymail.co.uk, finance.yahoo.com
Chinese AI startup ShengShu raises $293m led by Alibaba Cloud
Chinese AI startup ShengShu raises $293m led by Alibaba Cloud.
Sources: dealstreetasia.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 at 9.0% with $57K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: DeepSeek | 1.2% | $26K
Top odds: Anthropic | 90.0%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 91.0% | $5K
Popular events
Sources: prnewswire.com, artdaily.com, movieweb.com
Nasa Artemis II mission was a triumph - but when will astronauts land on the Moon ?
Nasa Artemis II mission was a triumph - but when will astronauts land on the Moon ?. Elon musk. OpenAI slams Elon Musk over legal ambush ahead of $100B trial.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, gizchina.com, thenews.com.pk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $251K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $251K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $149K
Popular events
Sources: benzinga.com
Top Crypto Influencers on Twitter ( X ) to Follow in 2026
Top Crypto Influencers on Twitter ( X ) to Follow in 2026. LiquidChain Nears $1M Presale Mark With a Cross - Chain Layer 3. Elon Musk Crypto Investment : Bitcoin , Ethereum & Dogecoin ( 2026 ).
Sources: directionsmag.com, partners.coinspeaker.com, directionsmag.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 8.6% with $45K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.6% | $45K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$2B | 12.0% | $23K
Top odds: >$600M | 65.0%
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 47.0% | $17K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $400M | 39.0% | $14K
Top odds: $50M | 95.0%
Popular events
Sources: prokerala.com, ianslive.in, kickoff.com
7 times younger drivers challenged more experienced team mates
7 times younger drivers challenged more experienced team mates. Cup Series returns to action at Bristol Food City 500. Cup Series returns to action at Bristol Food City 500.
Sources: formula1.com, joxfm.com, 640wxsm.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy at 71.0% with $661K traded.
Top volume remains in Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy.
Lead event
Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy
Trading at 71.0% with $661K in volume.
Event leaders
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Top volume & odds: Rory McIlroy | 71.0% | $661K
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 7.5% | $357K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 30.0%
Top volume & odds: Mercedes | 74.0% | $1K
Popular events
Aurora Gold Mine commissions US$100M solar farm. What in store for Canada 2026 wildfire season ?. Progressive Charlestown : Gov . McKee , Statehouse MAGAs At War With Renewable Energy.
Climate change is outpacing evolution . Scientists are using DNA to catch up
Climate change is outpacing evolution . Scientists are using DNA to catch up. Climate change is outpacing evolution . Scientists are using DNA to catch up. What in store for Canada 2026 wildfire season ?.
Sources: mynorthwest.com, abcnews.com, chroniclejournal.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 14.0% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$2,491
+$1,900
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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