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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 17.0% and $988K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Military action against Iran ends by...? - April 30
98.9%
Top priced
Military action against Iran ends by...? - April 30
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Viktor Orbán leads the desk at 24.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Trump promises economic support to Orbán ahead of crucial Hungary vote
Trump promises economic support to Orbán ahead of crucial Hungary vote. Viktor Orban declares loud majority at campaign rally ahead of Hungarian elections. Czech premier says supports Orban in Hungarian election.
Sources: politico.eu, aa.com.tr, aa.com.tr
The Most Insanely Idiotic Criticisms of the Iran Conflict
The Most Insanely Idiotic Criticisms of the Iran Conflict. The Iran regime Internet blackout is silencing millions and hiding executions , Iranian writer says. Other voices : No victory yet for the Iranian people.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 17.0% with $988K traded.
Lead stories
Iran unable to reopen Strait of Hormuz as it cant find its own mines
Iran unable to reopen Strait of Hormuz as it cant find its own mines. Peace Talks Have Reportedly Stalled Over Control of the Strait of Hormuz. Jag Vikram crosses Strait of Hormuz after US - Iran ceasefire , first Indian ship.
Sources: rediff.com, townhall.com, indianexpress.com
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 leads the desk at 6.0% with $36K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Claude Mythos AI fears trigger $2 trillion wipeout in IT stocks ; JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns AI will li.... Il governo americano chiama a rapporto i CEO delle principali banche per i rischi posti dalla IA di Anthropic – hookii. Economists once dismissed the AI job threat . But not any more.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, hookii.org, smh.com.au
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 18.0% with $229K traded.
Lead stories
Gainesville Big Culture and Arts Festival returns for a fourth year
Gainesville Big Culture and Arts Festival returns for a fourth year. Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack. Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack.
Sources: wcjb.com, wbnq.com, magic943fm.com
Manila Bulletin - The peace of Christ : Better than tranquilizers
Manila Bulletin - The peace of Christ : Better than tranquilizers. LIVE NOW : Hope California Holds Hope Fest LA. [ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : The Inexhaustible Depths of Divine Mercy.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 65.0% with $39K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin 23 Bar Theory : What Happens To The BTC Price If The Bottom Is In ?
Bitcoin 23 Bar Theory : What Happens To The BTC Price If The Bottom Is In ?. U . S . Treasury Secretary Fuels Huge $1 . 5 Quadrillion Crypto Prediction As The Bitcoin Price Suddenly Soars. Bitcoin Surges To $72 , 000 , But Remains Stuck In Key Supply Zone.
Sources: newsbtc.com, forbes.com, newsbtc.com
Smart Props Solution ( SPS ) Launches Real Estate Tokenization Presale
Smart Props Solution ( SPS ) Launches Real Estate Tokenization Presale. Alpix Shares Early Beta Insights on AI - Assisted Trading and On - Chain Perpetuals Platform. Installing every * Firefox extension.
B7
Lead market: Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy leads the desk at 35.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
No VIPs at Amen Corner shows how the Masters flattens America celebrity caste system
No VIPs at Amen Corner shows how the Masters flattens America celebrity caste system. 2026 Masters purse : Winner to take home record $4 . 5 million. 2026 Masters purse : Winner to take home record $4 . 5 million.
Sources: nytimes.com, fox10phoenix.com, fox9.com
Highlights : Arsenal 1 - 2 Bournemouth
Highlights : Arsenal 1 - 2 Bournemouth. Arsenal suffer huge title blow as Liverpool earn vital win. Arsenal stunned by Bournemouth in 2 - 1 loss that lets Man City back into Premier League title race.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 12.0% with $11K traded.
Lead stories
No , BBC , Disaster Losses Cant Be Tied to Climate Change – Watts Up With That ?
No , BBC , Disaster Losses Cant Be Tied to Climate Change – Watts Up With That ?. State climate laws targeted in U . S . as Iran war spikes gas prices. New York proposals would increases solar goals , offer tax credit.
Sources: wattsupwiththat.com, columbian.com, newsday.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
$20K
Sources: redstate.com, nypost.com, twincities.com
VOTE TRUMP , AND BRING BACK PEACE ! Trump old post resurfaces after Iran talks collapse
VOTE TRUMP , AND BRING BACK PEACE ! Trump old post resurfaces after Iran talks collapse. Trump announces Hormuz blockade after 20 - hour nuclear talks with Iran fail : Any fire will be blown to hell. Op - Ed | Trump Art of the Deal suits Iran just fine.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, livemint.com, amny.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Viktor Orbán at 24.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Next Prime Minister of Hungary - Viktor Orbán.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 3.1% | $2M
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: April 15 | 7.0% | $927K
Top odds: June 30 | 74.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 10.0% | $867K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?) | 29.0% | $857K
6.5%
-0.2pp
$8M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $546M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $517M+1%
Analysis - Crypto giant Kraken Fed payment account sparks concerns about risks. Artemis Reached The Moon . The Grid Can Reach The 21st Century .. Best CD rates today , April 10 , 2026 ( up to 4 . 15 % APY return ).
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Good News For Rail Passengers ! Vande Bharat Sleeper Train Approved Between Bengaluru & Mumbai
Good News For Rail Passengers ! Vande Bharat Sleeper Train Approved Between Bengaluru & Mumbai. Multnomah County board approves new homeless services director , but not without reservations. Prince Harry sued for defamation by charity he set up to honour mother Princess Diana.
Sources: freepressjournal.in, kgw.com, indianexpress.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 17.0% with $988K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 17.0% with $988K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 17.0% | $988K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.7% | $629K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.7% | $266K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 71.6%
Popular events
Is SpaceX Really Worth More Than Tesla ? Here the Unvarnished Truth .
Is SpaceX Really Worth More Than Tesla ? Here the Unvarnished Truth ..
Sources: fool.com
Anthropic Locks Down Claude Mythos Over Hack Risk What It Means For CRWD , PANW
Anthropic Locks Down Claude Mythos Over Hack Risk What It Means For CRWD , PANW. Is This Sector the Hidden Bottleneck of the AI Boom ? ( Hint : It Not Semiconductors .).
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026 at 6.0% with $36K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - April 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 90.0% | $21K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPAX | 5.5% | $12K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 50.6%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: BP | 20.0% | $8K
Top odds: Caesars Entertainment | 80.0%
Popular events
Sources: mb.com.ph, theepochtimes.com, freerepublic.com
Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack
Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack. Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack. Lady Gaga and Doechii Team Up for New Single Runway from the Prada 2 Soundtrack.
Sources: hot1033.com, kiss-1031.com, wjez.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 18.0% with $229K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 18.0% with $229K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $229K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $174K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.7% | $156K
Popular events
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, manilatimes.net, jack.cab
Michael Saylor Says Just 2 % Bitcoin Growth Covers MicroStrategy Dividends Forever
Michael Saylor Says Just 2 % Bitcoin Growth Covers MicroStrategy Dividends Forever. Michael Saylor Hints Strategy is Buying More Bitcoin. Is Strategy Bitcoin Bet Brilliant , or Reckless ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 at 65.0% with $39K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 32.0% | $32K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 14.0% | $30K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.2% | $25K
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$2B | 11.0% | $22K
Top odds: >$600M | 65.0%
Sources: arsenal.com, namibian.com.na, baltimoresun.com
F1 doesnt need Max Verstappen after latest quit threat
F1 doesnt need Max Verstappen after latest quit threat. Atiqa Mir Becomes Highest - Ranked Female in FIA Karting Rankings. Ferrari Dominance Faces Test in 2026 WEC Season.
Sources: planetf1.com, dailypioneer.com, autoweek.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy at 35.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Augusta National Invitational - Winner - Rory McIlroy.
Event leaders
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Top volume & odds: Rory McIlroy | 35.0% | $2M
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 7.3% | $350K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 32.0%
Popular events
Ella McSweeney : Cornafulla Bog is a gold mine . Let not squander it – The Irish Times. COMMENTARY : Polluters should pay for climate costs. Mercedes - Benz advances sustainability with Ambition 2039 , EV transition , and circular manufacturing.
Sources: irishtimes.com, dailytargum.com, greentechlead.com
Global Renewable Energy Capacity to Double to 8 . 4TW by 2031 as Solar and Wind Drive Energy Transition. Swatch drives sustainability through vertical integration , circular materials , and longevity - focused manufacturing. Cape Cod , Islands most likely MA counties to get hit by hurricane in 2026 . Report ..
Sources: greentechlead.com, greentechlead.com, yahoo.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 12.0% with $11K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$4,019
+$3,178
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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