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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.8% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 26.0% and $654K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino leads the desk at 13.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Outcome of Peruvian presidential election unknown after voting stretches into a second day
Outcome of Peruvian presidential election unknown after voting stretches into a second day. Paddington musical triumphs at London theatrical Olivier Awards. Rachel Zegler cements her comeback from Snow White flop with Olivier Awards triumph for the honour of a lifetime play....
Sources: thegazette.com, bworldonline.com, dailymail.co.uk
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 26.0% with $654K traded.
Lead stories
How Is US Gearing Up For The Hormuz Blockade Post Failed Talks In Islamabad ? Trump Plans To Use These Clever Tactics. Australia to join 40 countries in talks about deploying naval coalition to the Strait of Hormuz. Pak merchant ships allowed to cross Strait of Hormuz after initially being denied permission.
Sources: newsx.com, perthnow.com.au, dailyexcelsior.com
B4
Lead market: AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 14.4% with $76K traded.
Lead stories
The Only Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) Stock in the Magnificent Seven That Worth Buying After the Correction. Why Pay the SpaceX Premium When You Can Invest in xAI and Anthropic for Just $35 ? Here How .. AI is on its way to upending cybersecurity.
Sources: fool.com, finance.yahoo.com, seattletimes.com
Anthropic co - founder : World must get ready for AI hacking capabilities
Anthropic co - founder : World must get ready for AI hacking capabilities. Analysis - AI - boosted hacks with Anthropic Mythos could have dire consequences for banks. Microsoft Plans to Bring Copilot Into the Agentic AI Age.
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $133K traded.
Lead stories
Pope Leo Says He Not Afraid Of Trump .
Pope Leo Says He Not Afraid Of Trump .. MAGA supporters turn on Trump : God shall not be mocked over Jesus healing image. Are We Willing To Be Hated For Speaking The Gospel Truth ?.
Sources: patheos.com, hindustantimes.com, patheos.com
B6
Lead market: Bitcoin all time high by ___? - September 30, 2026 leads the desk at 9.0% with $41K traded.
Lead stories
Popular Musician Loses Life Savings Through Malicious Crypto Wallet in Apple App Store
Popular Musician Loses Life Savings Through Malicious Crypto Wallet in Apple App Store. This 1 Bold Prediction About Bitcoin Could Change How to Invest in It Forever. Bitcoin Poker No Deposit Bonus 2026 : BC Poker Offers $10 Free to Play Online Poker for Real Money With No Cashout Ca....
Sources: gizmodo.com, fool.com, manilatimes.net
B7
Lead market: New York Mets leads the desk at 1.8% with $470K traded.
Lead stories
FanDuel Promo Code Grants $250 for a Winning $5 Bet on Mets vs Dodgers on Monday
FanDuel Promo Code Grants $250 for a Winning $5 Bet on Mets vs Dodgers on Monday. How to live stream Dodgers vs Mets : MLB , TV channel. DraftKings Promo Code Unlocks a $300 Bonus for a Winning Wager on Mets vs Dodgers Tonight.
Sources: covers.com, thebiglead.com, covers.com
The Briefing : Will playing at Etihad help Arsenal ? Are Tottenham done ? Is Ngumoha the real thing ?. Liverpool v PSG stats : Past meetings , Anfield record , comeback history and more. The Cherries pop title race wide open.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k leads the desk at 13.0% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
Legislature Passes Bill to Track Trans Health Care Data | Pith in the Wind | Nashville News
Legislature Passes Bill to Track Trans Health Care Data | Pith in the Wind | Nashville News.
Sources: nashvillescene.com
US , China contrast sharply on climate
US , China contrast sharply on climate. Dangerous super typhoon barrels toward remote US islands. NY weighs new yardstick to set climate goals | Latest Market News.
Sources: africa.chinadaily.com.cn, aol.co.uk,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$108K
98.6%
$470K
Trump , Iran Tensions , Birthright Citizenship Fight , and Texas Senate Drama – Houston Public Media
Trump , Iran Tensions , Birthright Citizenship Fight , and Texas Senate Drama – Houston Public Media. Bulldozer mentality of PM : Congress slams govt for not sharing Constitution amendment bills. Vance Loser Allies in Orbán Government Busted Shredding Evidence of Treason.
Apologise for lie : Trump slams NYT over Iran war coverage , insists Iran obliterated
Apologise for lie : Trump slams NYT over Iran war coverage , insists Iran obliterated. CNN Data Guru Harry Enten Has New Warning for Trump on Catholic Voters. Trump Iran war deepens the GOP midterm challenges : From the Politics Desk.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, thedailybeast.com, nbcnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino at 13.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino.
Lead event
Peru Presidential Election Winner - Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Trading at 13.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 13.0% | $2M
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 49.0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: April 15 | 2.1% | $664K
Top odds: June 30 | 79.0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 95.4% | $538K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 35.0% | $476K
6.2%
0.0pp
$10M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $550M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $522M+1%
Will the market test President Trump new Fed Chair ? More importantly , will he pass ?
Will the market test President Trump new Fed Chair ? More importantly , will he pass ?. Future uncertain for Vernon trailer park residents after power shut off. Kevin Federline Happy Britney Spears Is Getting Help After Entering Rehab.
Sources: investmentnews.com, globalnews.ca, tmz.com
Final act of monetary collapse begins as Mr . Gold urges refuge in God money
Final act of monetary collapse begins as Mr . Gold urges refuge in God money. Final act of monetary collapse begins as Mr . Gold urges refuge in God money.
Sources: bankingnews.gr, bankingnews.gr
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 26.0% with $654K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 26.0% with $654K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 26.0% | $654K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.3% | $641K
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.7% | $346K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 6.0% | $223K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 88.7%
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of April? | 98.7% | $108K
Popular events
Sources: yahoo.com, thestar.com.my, cnet.com
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026 at 14.4% with $76K traded.
Top volume remains in AI bubble burst by...? - December 31, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 14.4% | $76K
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 6.5% | $25K
Top odds: Anthropic | 91.0%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.2% | $20K
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 94.0% | $15K
Popular events
Delta Goodrem Eurovision 2026 : Australian singer kicks off campaign with rave reviews in Norway. Eurovision oddsmakers predict Israel will win televoting again this year. What this EUROVISION legend just said about the iconic song contest speaks volumes as he shares his thoughts on ISRAE....
Sources: brisbanetimes.com.au, jpost.com, dailymail.co.uk
Jokic plays 1st half of Nugget game versus Spurs to qualify for award eligibility while Wemby sits – Capital Gazette. Jokic to start for Nuggets versus Spurs to quality for award eligibility while Wemby sits. Heat - Hornets , Magic - 76ers to battle in play - in tournament.
Sources: capitalgazette.com, durangoherald.com, tsn.ca
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 3.9% with $133K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $133K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $45K
Popular events
Bitcoin Price at Risk Again as Peace Talks Collapse , Downside Looms. Bitcoin Price Pumps 6 % Near $75 , 000 As Shorts Liquidate. What the Difference Between the FBTC and IBIT Bitcoin ETFs ?.
Sources: newsbtc.com, bitcoinmagazine.com, fool.com
Orbital - Rise Presale Crypto 2026 : Blazpay Climbs Beyond
Orbital - Rise Presale Crypto 2026 : Blazpay Climbs Beyond. Bitmine Immersion Technologies Stock Climbs to $21 . 57 on NYSE Debut and Massive $11 . 8B Ethereum Treasury. Bitmine Tom Lee calls ether the wartime store of value as holdings hit 4 . 87 million ETH.
Sources: openpr.com, ibtimes.com.au, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Bitcoin all time high by ___? - September 30, 2026 at 9.0% with $41K traded.
Top volume remains in Bitcoin all time high by ___? - September 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 9.0% | $41K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 15.0%
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $300M | 61.0% | $24K
Top odds: $50M | 95.0%
Genius FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $300M | 97.2% | $22K
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 45.0% | $22K
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, liverpoolfc.com, usa.chinadaily.com.cn
The NFL faces increased federal scrutiny as more games shift to streaming - Las Vegas Sun News
The NFL faces increased federal scrutiny as more games shift to streaming - Las Vegas Sun News. Official : Liverpool Women Sign Vivien Endemann From Wolfsburg For July. Leeds gets three golden points , United ruins its own Champions League job.
Sources: lasvegassun.com, liverpooloffside.sbnation.com, gazetaexpress.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by New York Mets at 1.8% with $470K traded.
Top volume remains in New York Mets.
Event leaders
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Top volume: New York Mets | 1.8% | $470K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.6%
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 7.3% | $309K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 32.0%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC
Top volume: Paris Saint-Germain FC | 38.0% | $115K
Top odds: Liverpool FC | 42.0%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona
Top volume & odds: FC Barcelona | 55.0% | $99K
Popular events
Vol $470K
Vol $115K
Renewable energy news : LX Pantos , Dajin , Vineyard Wind
Renewable energy news : LX Pantos , Dajin , Vineyard Wind. FICCI Forum discusses climate - responsible future. Super Typhoon Sinlaku Raises the Stakes for Guam in a Rare Western Pacific Threat.
Sources: greentechlead.com, printweek.in, el-balad.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k at 13.0% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑12.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$6,545
+$3,543
+$3,178
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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