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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 8.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 28.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 leads the desk at 24.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
US Iran war news live : Second US - sanctioned supertanker enters Gulf via Hormuz despite blockade
US Iran war news live : Second US - sanctioned supertanker enters Gulf via Hormuz despite blockade.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
No ceasefire for Iran Kurdish opposition parties in exile
No ceasefire for Iran Kurdish opposition parties in exile. Strikes Kill 3 Iranian Kurds in Northern Iraq , Says Opposition Group. Indian refiners pay for Iran oil in yuan via ICICI Bank , sources say.
Sources: middleeasteye.net,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 28.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
China Wang Yi calls on Iran to ensure freedom and safe passage through Strait of Hormuz
China Wang Yi calls on Iran to ensure freedom and safe passage through Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump repeats he is not happy with Australia as Strait of Hormuz crisis continues. China asks Iran to ensure freedom of navigation through Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: scmp.com, abc.net.au, thehindubusinessline.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic leads the desk at 94.0% with $68K traded.
Lead stories
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal
Meta bets $21 billion on AI infrastructure in CoreWeave deal.
Sources: thenews.com.pk
Elon Musk xAI may allow Cursor to use its Computing power , and what makes this important for three of the world bigg.... Tesla hints at something way cooler than an average family car. Grok faced potential removal from the App Store.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria leads the desk at 1.2% with $84K traded.
Lead stories
Airdate : Eurovision Song Contest 2026
Airdate : Eurovision Song Contest 2026. Episode 20 – ( November 18 , 2025 ) – TDoR & Trans Awareness Week. EXCLUSIVE ! Inside Laura Nolan and Matthew MacNabb Dancing with the Stars - inspired wedding.
Sources: tvtonight.com.au, joy.org.au, goss.ie
Franklin Graham defends Trump , saying the Trump didnt knowingly depict himself as Jesus
Franklin Graham defends Trump , saying the Trump didnt knowingly depict himself as Jesus. POLL : What Was the Worst Media Quote of the Week ?. POLL : What Was the Worst Media Quote of the Week ?.
B6
Lead market: Will Base launch a token by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 leads the desk at 3.3% with $60K traded.
Lead stories
What Blue Origin selection means for a proposed new launch site at Vandenberg
What Blue Origin selection means for a proposed new launch site at Vandenberg. Vandenberg Next Mission : SpaceX Rocket Launch on Saturday Morning | Local News. NASA charts course for nuclear future with ambitious Mars mission – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: ksby.com, noozhawk.com, naturalnews.com
AP News Summary at 9 : 10 p . m . EDT
AP News Summary at 9 : 10 p . m . EDT. AP News Summary at 9 : 10 p . m . EDT.
B7
Lead market: UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid leads the desk at 11.6% with $802K traded.
Lead stories
Dembele double downs Reds. Enjoy our greatest last - minute goals !. UEFA Champions League 2026 Semi - Finals Set as Final Four Confirmed.
Sources: europe.chinadaily.com.cn, arsenal.com, propakistani.pk
Verstappen understands bigger picture in power unit debate , says F1 boss Domenicali
Verstappen understands bigger picture in power unit debate , says F1 boss Domenicali. Ogun to arraign driver of stationary truck involved in Anthony Joshua accident. Kevin Harvick says Alex Bowman needs to win to keep Hendrick job.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k leads the desk at 14.0% with $741 traded.
Lead stories
New measles exposure locations confirmed in Portage la Prairie - PortageOnline . com - Local news , Weather , Sports....
Sources: portageonline.com
Apple Products Now Contain 30 % Recycled Materials . Their Packaging Boasts Zero Plastic
Apple Products Now Contain 30 % Recycled Materials . Their Packaging Boasts Zero Plastic. Amazon to expand renewable energy capacity in Australia to 1GW. Will summer monsoons , super El Niño alleviate Colorado drought ?.
Sources: cnet.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$343K
US Sanctions Iranian Shadow Fleet , Oil - for - Gold Terror Financing Network
US Sanctions Iranian Shadow Fleet , Oil - for - Gold Terror Financing Network. U . S . Upends Iranian Shadow Fleet and Oil - for - Gold Terror Financing Network. Iran to execute first woman in connection with widespread anti - regime protests.
Sources: finanznachrichten.de, globalsecurity.org, oann.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 at 24.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22.
Event leaders
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?) | 22.0% | $708K
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.4% | $700K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Kamala Harris | 6.6% | $640K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 28.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $626K
Popular events
6.6%
-1.0pp
$11M
+10%
Republican nominee
Event volume $560M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $532M+1%
Sen . Warren calls for greater transparency into Federal Reserve nominee financial holdings. Sen . Warren calls for greater transparency into Federal Reserve nominee financial holdings. Sen . Warren calls for greater transparency into Federal Reserve nominee financial holdings.
Sources: therecord.com, ksat.com, clickondetroit.com
Investors shrug off oil surge as stocks climb
Investors shrug off oil surge as stocks climb. Oil futures rise as U . S . tightens Iran blockade , Hormuz still shut ( USO : NYSEARCA ). Oil Price Today ( April 16 ): Crude oil hovers below $95 amid Iran war peace talks . Where are prices headed ?.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, seekingalpha.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 28.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 28.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 28.0% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume: Judy Shelton | 1.5% | $352K
Top odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.2%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $140 | 4.6% | $158K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 90.0%
Jim Cramer Makes Big Claim About Microsoft ( MSFT ) & SpaceX IPO
Jim Cramer Makes Big Claim About Microsoft ( MSFT ) & SpaceX IPO. Buying the Dip on Tesla Stock ? Read This First.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic at 94.0% with $68K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - Anthropic
Trading at 94.0% with $68K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 94.0% | $68K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.2% | $43K
Popular events
Sources: turnto10.com, newsbusters.org, newsbusters.org
Iconic 1970s Festival Footwear That Inspired Modern Festival Fashion
Iconic 1970s Festival Footwear That Inspired Modern Festival Fashion. Looking good baby : Alia Bhatt gushes as husband Ranbir Kapoor makes it to TIME 100 list. Looking good baby : Alia Bhatt gushes as husband Ranbir Kapoor makes it to TIME 100 list.
Sources: wwd.com, news.webindia123.com, aninews.in
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria at 1.2% with $84K traded.
Top volume remains in Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $61K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $56K
Popular events
Sources: corsicanadailysun.com, couriernews.com
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain
The Perp Dex That Processed $360 Billion Just Went Live on Crypto Most Experimental Blockchain.
Sources: benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Base launch a token by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 at 3.3% with $60K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Base launch a token by ___ ? - June 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.3% | $60K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 41.0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
Top volume: >$800M | 63.0% | $46K
Top odds: >$600M | 80.0%
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 50.0% | $37K
EXCLUSIVE : F1 ACADEMY champion Doriane Pin on learning a lot in new Mercedes role and working towards her F1 goal.
Sources: formula1.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid at 11.6% with $802K traded.
Top volume remains in UEFA Champions League Winner - Atletico Madrid.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.6% | $802K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 35.0%
Top volume & odds: Kylian Mbappe | 67.0% | $4K
Popular events
Will summer monsoons , super El Niño alleviate Colorado drought ?
Will summer monsoons , super El Niño alleviate Colorado drought ?. iTWire - Amazon Australia signs nine new renewable energy deals , taking Australian capacity to nearly 1GW. Michigan updates air quality alert system as wildfire smoke season approaches.
Sources: dailycamera.com, itwire.com, wndu.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k at 14.0% with $741 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7.5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$13,468
+$10,188
+$7,235
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
n/a