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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $20M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?)" at 29.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner - Keiko Fujimori
98.9%
Top priced
Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner - Keiko Fujimori
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 leads the desk at 17.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Cryptocurrency industry is on track to surpass 2024 spending on Texas midterm races
Cryptocurrency industry is on track to surpass 2024 spending on Texas midterm races. EU hosts Palestinian peace conference as it seeks greater sway in the Middle East. EU hosts Palestinian peace conference as it seeks sway in Middle East.
Sources: click2houston.com, ksat.com, mcall.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes leads the desk at 29.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Unique status of Strait of Hormuz – Shafaqna English | International Shia News & Fatwas
Unique status of Strait of Hormuz – Shafaqna English | International Shia News & Fatwas. Iranian cargo ship defies Trump blockade to transit Strait of Hormuz. India in touch with Iran to secure safe Hormuz passage for its ships.
Sources: en.shafaqna.com, express.co.uk, rediff.com
Ruling party announces 1st parliamentary by - election candidate
Ruling party announces 1st parliamentary by - election candidate. Fed chief nominee Warsh pledges new divestment in updated financial filing. Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination : Live Updates and Commentary.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI leads the desk at 17.9% with $175K traded.
Lead stories
Google rolls out Gemini in Chrome in seven new countries
Google rolls out Gemini in Chrome in seven new countries.
Sources: techcrunch.com
Anthropic Mythos : What to know amid rising concerns
Anthropic Mythos : What to know amid rising concerns. Marvell Technology shares gain on report of AI deal talks with Google. How Google is quietly planning to take on Nvidia.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, bnnbloomberg.ca,
B5
Lead market: Bachelorette Season 22 Winner - Richard Van De Water leads the desk at 16.3% with $399K traded.
Lead stories
Selena Gomez , Gigi Hadid step up to make Taylor Swift , Travis Kelce summer wedding unforgettable
Selena Gomez , Gigi Hadid step up to make Taylor Swift , Travis Kelce summer wedding unforgettable. Maura Higgins signs up for major TV show in the US – and it NOT The Bachelorette. Maura Higgins set for HUGE US payday after The Traitors success.
Sources: thenews.com.pk, goss.ie, goss.ie
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 8.6% with $46K traded.
Lead stories
Weekly Blockchain Blog - April 2026 # 3 | BakerHostetler
Weekly Blockchain Blog - April 2026 # 3 | BakerHostetler. Forget Shiba Inu ( SHIB ): All Hype , No Durable Adoption. Blazpay 10× Potential : Can $BLAZ Deliver Exponential Crypto.
Sources: jdsupra.com, finance.yahoo.com, openpr.com
Top Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week : RaveDAO , Pi Network , Aave
Top Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week : RaveDAO , Pi Network , Aave.
Sources:
B7
Lead market: Timberwolves leads the desk at 32.0% with $484K traded.
Lead stories
DraftKings Promo Code : Get $300 Bonus for Timberwolves vs . Nuggets Game 2 , NBA Playoffs Today
DraftKings Promo Code : Get $300 Bonus for Timberwolves vs . Nuggets Game 2 , NBA Playoffs Today. Timberwolves vs . Nuggets Game 2 prediction : NBA playoffs picks , odds , best bet. FanDuel Promo Code : Get $250 Bonus for Timberwolves vs . Nuggets Game 2 , BetProtect+ for NBA Playoffs on Monday.
Sources: covers.com, nypost.com, covers.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k leads the desk at 10.2% with $633 traded.
Lead stories
Hong Kong health authorities investigate third measles case among airport staff
Hong Kong health authorities investigate third measles case among airport staff. City of Camden issues voluntary water conservation.
GOLDSTEIN : Climate hysteria wasted our money , failed to reduce need for fossil fuels
GOLDSTEIN : Climate hysteria wasted our money , failed to reduce need for fossil fuels. What happened to New York climate goals ? - City & State New York. CleanMax Secures 30 MW Hybrid Renewable Deal With Shell For India Operations.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Peru election chief resigns over logistical problems in hotly disputed presidential contest – Winnipeg Free Press. Peru election chief resigns over logistical problems in hotly disputed presidential contest. Redding Chico Eureka.
Sources: winnipegfreepress.com, yahoo.com, krcrtv.com
No More Deals With Devils | Frontpage Mag
No More Deals With Devils | Frontpage Mag. Stefanik Shreds Liberal Media Host in Heated Exchange Over Genocide in Iran and Viral Trump Post. Trump shocking Iran nuclear retreat after screaming at top generals.
Sources: frontpagemag.com, redstate.com, dailymail.co.uk
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22 at 17.0% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - April 22.
Event leaders
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume: Glenn Youngkin | 1.1% | $727K
Top odds: JD Vance | 19.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?) | 1.1% | $582K
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 25.4% | $550K
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 68.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Mark Kelly | 2.8% | $540K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 27.3%
Popular events
6.5%
-0.3pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $573M+1%
Presidential election
Event volume $545M+1%
Sources: koreaherald.com, finance.yahoo.com, kiplinger.com
Oil new normal : Why Brent and WTI crude face a fresh Hormuz shock
Oil new normal : Why Brent and WTI crude face a fresh Hormuz shock. VNOM $100 Oil Windfall Revives Dividend Safety After 2025 Price Collapse. Trump invokes Cold War - era Defense Production Act to fund new energy projects ( USO : NYSEARCA ).
Sources: businesstoday.in, finance.yahoo.com, seekingalpha.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes at 29.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? - Yes
Trading at 29.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?) | 29.0% | $1M
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Top volume & odds: Kevin Warsh | 94.2% | $364K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↓ $60 | 3.6% | $135K
Top odds: ↓ $85 | 86.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 70.0% | $112K
Who Will Win Race for AI - Driven Cyber - Anthropic or OpenAI ?
Who Will Win Race for AI - Driven Cyber - Anthropic or OpenAI ?. Fintech CTO slams Anthropic over mass Claude suspensions , warns developers never put all your eggs in one basket. Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return.
Sources: bankinfosecurity.com, livemint.com, techcrunch.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI at 17.9% with $175K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of April? - OpenAI
Trading at 17.9% with $175K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Top volume: OpenAI | 17.9% | $175K
Top odds: Anthropic | 80.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 53.1% | $22K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 1.9% | $9K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 65.3%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.9% | $7K
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Top volume: OpenAI | 19.2% | $4K
Top odds: Anthropic | 79.0%
Luxury fashion brands are financing Hollywood projects – and becoming more visible onscreen. Sydney Sweeney Dominates HBO Max with Two Hits Despite Box Office Flop. Big Sean , Tinashe , Rauw : Inside Coachella Secret Parties.
Sources: theglobeandmail.com, aceshowbiz.com, blackamericaweb.com
Tabernacle Choir Music and the Spoken Word Reaches Millions in 25 African Countries
Tabernacle Choir Music and the Spoken Word Reaches Millions in 25 African Countries. Viral photo of Israeli soldier smashing Jesus statue in Lebanon sparks global outrage. Israeli soldier smashes Jesus statue in Lebanon , activists condemn Western silence.
Sources: prnewswire.com, moneycontrol.com, albawaba.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Bachelorette Season 22 Winner - Richard Van De Water at 16.3% with $399K traded.
Top volume remains in Bachelorette Season 22 Winner - Richard Van De Water.
Lead event
Bachelorette Season 22 Winner - Richard Van De Water
Trading at 16.3% with $399K in volume.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Richard Van De Water | 16.3% | $399K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: April 30 | 1.5% | $372K
Top odds: December 31 | 22.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.9% | $298K
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Top volume: Bernard Arnault | 1.1% | $70K
Top odds: Elon Musk | 91.0%
Popular events
Majority of consumers think 2026 wont be the year of bitcoin comeback : Deutsche Bank
Majority of consumers think 2026 wont be the year of bitcoin comeback : Deutsche Bank. Bitcoin Price Retakes $76 , 500 As Iran Tensions And Oil Volatility Drive Market Uncertainty. Bitcoin Price Gives Back Gains , But Structure Remains Bullish.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, bitcoinmagazine.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 8.6% with $46K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.6% | $46K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $300M | 58.0% | $32K
Top odds: $50M | 95.9%
Popular events
Is it now Man City title to lose ? How awful are Chelsea ? Will the gap get too big for Spurs ?. City beat Arsenal to seize title race control. Opta supercomputer delivers Liverpool Champions League verdict.
Sources: nytimes.com, tribune.com.pk, empireofthekop.com
Former W Series driver points to major financial flaw of F1 Academy
Former W Series driver points to major financial flaw of F1 Academy. Atiqa Mir zooms to P2 in Italy for highest finish by an Indian in WSK history. Nurburgring racer loses licence after 210km / h breach triggers instant DSQ.
Sources: motorsport.com, dailyexcelsior.com, planetf1.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Timberwolves at 32.0% with $484K traded.
Top volume remains in Timberwolves.
Event leaders
Top volume: Atletico Madrid | 11.8% | $219K
Top odds: Bayern Munich | 35.0%
Popular events
Vol $484K
Sources: edmontonsun.com, cityandstateny.com, freepressjournal.in
India forests could nearly double carbon storage by 2100 , study finds
India forests could nearly double carbon storage by 2100 , study finds. Georgia drought raises wildfire threat as crews respond to over 50 weekend fires. Georgia drought raises wildfire threat as crews respond to over 50 weekend fires.
Sources: thehindu.com, wtoc.com, wctv.tv
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k at 10.2% with $633 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑10k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$12,679
+$9,249
+$7,504
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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