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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in June?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 96.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 1.3% and $796K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - May 31
98.8%
Top priced
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? - May 31
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes leads the desk at 3.9% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Angus Taylor attempts to clarify bad country remark as Iranian Australians respond
Angus Taylor attempts to clarify bad country remark as Iranian Australians respond. Scott , just for a second ! CNN panel gets heated over price of Trump unpopular war. Iranian exile faces Canada court battle over defamation allegations.
Sources: sbs.com.au, rawstory.com, jpost.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in June? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 1.3% with $796K traded.
Lead stories
Fed Meeting Underscores Tough Task Ahead for Warsh
Fed Meeting Underscores Tough Task Ahead for Warsh. Too Late Powell Just Made His Final Move As Fed Chair. Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged In Unusually Divided Vote.
Sources: nytimes.com, townhall.com, finanznachrichten.de
B4
Lead market: Claude 5 released by…? - June 30, 2026 leads the desk at 26.0% with $54K traded.
Lead stories
How Sam Altman , Elon Musk and AI Rivals Are Shaping the Future of Technology
How Sam Altman , Elon Musk and AI Rivals Are Shaping the Future of Technology. Gemini Can Now Generate Files , Including Microsoft Word And LaTeX Documents. Mythos effect : Trump administration seeks to end Pentagon AI standoff , reinstate Anthropic Claude , says report.
Sources: dailypioneer.com, engadget.com, livemint.com
B5
Lead market: Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 96.6% with $9M traded.
Lead stories
Polymarket $16M Clavicular Bet Sparks Oracle Dispute
Polymarket $16M Clavicular Bet Sparks Oracle Dispute.
Sources: forbes.com
BLACKPINK Lisa makes history as first K - pop star on Met Gala 2026 host committee
BLACKPINK Lisa makes history as first K - pop star on Met Gala 2026 host committee. 2026 Anne Hathaway movies ranked by Oscar potential. Breaking News - Award - Winning Comedian , Entertainer & Cultural Sensation Druski Set to Host BET Awards 2026.
Sources: moneycontrol.com,
B6
Lead market: MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B leads the desk at 11.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
HTX Opens Trading for MEGA ( MegaETH )
HTX Opens Trading for MEGA ( MegaETH ).
Sources: finanznachrichten.de
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes
FxWirePro - Key Crypto Updates - EconoTimes.
Sources: econotimes.com
This Set It and Forget It Cryptocurrency Could Make You a Multimillionaire With Almost No Effort
This Set It and Forget It Cryptocurrency Could Make You a Multimillionaire With Almost No Effort. Why The Bitcoin Price Could Hit $68 , 000 Again. Bitcoin Crash Is Coming : Pundit Says It Time To Sell All Your BTC.
B7
Lead market: Stars leads the desk at 48.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Stars vs . Wild Game 6 prediction : Odds , picks , best bet for Stanley Cup playoffs Thursday
Stars vs . Wild Game 6 prediction : Odds , picks , best bet for Stanley Cup playoffs Thursday. FanDuel Promo Code : Get $250 Bonus for Stars vs . Wild , NHL Playoffs on Thursday. Jason Robertson Game 6 Preview vs . Wild – 4 / 30 / 2026.
Sources: nypost.com, covers.com, am1300thezone.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 15.0% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
We Need To Speak Out Against Policies That Are Exacerbating Climate Change
We Need To Speak Out Against Policies That Are Exacerbating Climate Change. Hoymiles Releases 2025 Sustainability Report , Advancing High - Quality Growth Through ESG Leadership. Hoymiles Releases 2025 Sustainability Report , Advancing High - Quality Growth Through ESG Leadership.
Sources: cleantechnica.com, philippinetimes.com, sydneysun.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
98.4%
$587
Iranian exile faces Canada court battle over defamation allegations
Iranian exile faces Canada court battle over defamation allegations. Free Press Opinion : Do we really know our enemy ? | Chattanooga Times Free Press. Gulf states reject Iran proposal to share custodianship of Hormuz.
Sources: jpost.com, timesfreepress.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes at 3.9% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 3.9% | $4M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 35.0% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 8.0% | $1M
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Top volume: May 31 | 25.0% | $700K
Top odds: June 30 | 47.0%
Popular events
7.6%
0.0pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $594M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $560M0%
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm. Trump admin pitches new international coalition to coordinate reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices hit wartime high as Iran vows to keep control of Hormuz strait.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, nypost.com, irishtimes.com
Trump Iran Naval Blockade Sends Brent Crude Toward $120 , Dow Futures Slide Tehran Taunts US Over Rising. BREAKING : Crude oil hits $115 per barrel , highest since 2022. Higher oil prices set to give feds a windfall in next budget.
Sources: benzinga.com, dailypost.ng, cbc.ca
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in June? - 25 bps increase at 1.3% with $796K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in June? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 6.0% | $764K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 4.5% | $519K
Top odds: ↑ $115 | 10.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 56.9% | $313K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 21.0% | $255K
Popular events
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM ): One of the Harvard University Stock Picks.
Sources: insidermonkey.com
Grok Told Delusional User Suicide Was Readines as New AI Safety Tests Reveal Which Chatbots Fuel Psychosis and Which.... DeepSeek unveils V4 model , with rock - bottom prices and close integration with Huawei chips. China DeepSeek rolls out a long - anticipated update of its AI model.
Sources: ibtimes.co.uk, fortune.com, baltimoresun.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Claude 5 released by…? - June 30, 2026 at 26.0% with $54K traded.
Top volume remains in Claude 5 released by…? - June 30, 2026.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 26.0% | $54K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 26.0% | $53K
Top odds: Anthropic | 65.9%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 13.3% | $24K
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 94.6% | $18K
Popular events
How Swamp Thing # 88 Makes Jesus A Major Part Of DC Comics Continuity
How Swamp Thing # 88 Makes Jesus A Major Part Of DC Comics Continuity. San Diego : Latter - day Saints church to open for non - Mormon visitors. Here how you can tour San Diego iconic Mormon temple in La Jolla.
Sources: bleedingcool.com, mercurynews.com, sandiegouniontribune.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes at 96.6% with $9M traded.
Top volume remains in Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?) | 96.6% | $9M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $932K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 3.6% | $155K
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.2% | $74K
Popular events
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B at 11.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch? - >$2B.
Event leaders
Popular events
Steven Gerrard names his Champions League favourite after Arsenal draw vs Atletico Madrid | Football. UCL : Lookman denied as Atlético settle for draw against Arsenal. Keith Andrews Hints Brentford Avfc Could Need Liverpool Win.
Sources: metro.co.uk, premiumtimesng.com, el-balad.com
Nuggets vs . Timberwolves Game 4 Time , TV & Stream – April 25
Nuggets vs . Timberwolves Game 4 Time , TV & Stream – April 25. Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 04 / 25 / 2026. Nuggets vs . Timberwolves Game 6 Time , TV & Stream – April 30.
Sources: sportsradio957.iheart.com, vavel.com, kxno.iheart.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Nuggets | 73.0% | $254K
Popular events
Ryan Poehling scores early in OT , Ducks push Oilers to the brink with 4 - 3 win in Game 4 – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
OceanaGold Releases 2025 Sustainability Report
OceanaGold Releases 2025 Sustainability Report. OceanaGold Releases 2025 Sustainability Report. OceanaGold Releases 2025 Sustainability Report.
Sources: singaporestar.com, australiannews.net, malaysiasun.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 15.0% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Popular events
+$70
+$24
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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