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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.0% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 17.0% and $603K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.6%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 31.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Iran War Live Updates : Theyll be blown off the face of the Earth , Trump ups the ante against Iran
Iran War Live Updates : Theyll be blown off the face of the Earth , Trump ups the ante against Iran.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com
U . S . Sanctions Tighten Grip on Iran - China Oil Trade - United States Department of State
U . S . Sanctions Tighten Grip on Iran - China Oil Trade - United States Department of State. Sen . Lindsey Graham urges Second Amendment solution to topple Iranian regime. Iran after Khamenei : IRGC still holds power and economy.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 17.0% with $603K traded.
Lead stories
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm
Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz will bring calm. Trump admin pitches new international coalition to coordinate reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Japan confirms ship passage through Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, nypost.com, aa.com.tr
B4
Lead market: What will SpaceX's public ticker be? - $X leads the desk at 48.0% with $16K traded.
Lead stories
Why Anthropic Draws Line Between Who Can Access Opus , Mythos
Why Anthropic Draws Line Between Who Can Access Opus , Mythos. Why Anthropic Draws Line Between Who Can Access Opus , Mythos. Claude Sonnet 4 . 8 Leaks and Gemini 3 . 5 Arena Tests.
Sources: bankinfosecurity.com, govinfosecurity.com, geeky-gadgets.com
Meta wants to spend more even after it lost $80 billion on the Metaverse and over 20 million users
Meta wants to spend more even after it lost $80 billion on the Metaverse and over 20 million users.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 2.7% with $229K traded.
Lead stories
Jaafar Jackson pays tribute to Michael Jackson at Met Gala 2026
Jaafar Jackson pays tribute to Michael Jackson at Met Gala 2026. KD The Devil Movie Box Office Collection Day 5 : Dhruva Sarja Starrer Earns Rs 16 . 27 Crore , Holds Strong Amid Raja.... Devil Wears Prada 2 takes top spot in US box office.
Sources: news.az, newsx.com, hurriyetdailynews.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 leads the desk at 5.0% with $192K traded.
Lead stories
Strategy Just Gobbled Up 0 . 5 % of the Bitcoin Supply in 90 Days . Here What Could Happen Next .
Strategy Just Gobbled Up 0 . 5 % of the Bitcoin Supply in 90 Days . Here What Could Happen Next ..
Sources: fool.com
Sudden Bitcoin Price Surge Fuels Huge $16 Trillion Supercycle Prediction
Sudden Bitcoin Price Surge Fuels Huge $16 Trillion Supercycle Prediction. Bitcoin Closes 2 Green Monthly Candles : Here What Historical Data Says Is Coming Next. Bitcoin Price Flips Volatile on Iran Events as $80 , 000 Battle Heats Up.
Sources: forbes.com,
B7
Lead market: Cavaliers leads the desk at 18.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
2026 NBA title odds : Thunder , Spurs well ahead of the rest of the field
2026 NBA title odds : Thunder , Spurs well ahead of the rest of the field. Cavaliers vs . Pistons Series Prediction , Odds , Best Bets for NBA Playoffs ( Can Cavs Upset ?). Underdog Cavaliers expect physical grind in playoff series with Pistons.
Sources: nytimes.com, si.com, news-herald.com
LeBron James biggest underdog of career vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1
LeBron James biggest underdog of career vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1. Lakers vs . Thunder Series Prediction , Odds , Best Bets for NBA Playoffs ( Expect a Quick Series ?). Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 05 / 05 / 2026.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k leads the desk at 59.0% with $338 traded.
Lead stories
WA government defends decision to abandon emissions reduction targets
WA government defends decision to abandon emissions reduction targets. Opinion | The fastest way to cut aviation emissions. New Research Reveals How to Significantly Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Wisconsin Agriculture.
Sources: abc.net.au, bostonglobe.com, urbanmilwaukee.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.4%
$111K
Sources: state.gov, foxnews.com, jpost.com
Democratic Ad Attacks Collins on Healthcare , Iran War
Democratic Ad Attacks Collins on Healthcare , Iran War. Trump retribution ? What to watch in Tuesday elections in Indiana , Ohio and Michigan. Michigan special election to decide state Senate control and give clues about fall midterms.
Sources: factcheck.org, stcatharinesstandard.ca, mynorthwest.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 31.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 31.0% | $1M
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.7% | $912K
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume & odds: JD Vance | 20.6% | $793K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?) | 11.0% | $452K
Popular events
8.0%
-2.5pp
$11M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $601M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $569M+1%
Recent inflation data was bad news , Fed Goolsbee says. The Fed As Inflation Fighter Is Rooted In Phillips Curve Mysticism. Too Late Powell Just Made His Final Move As Fed Chair.
Sources: cnbc.com, forbes.com, townhall.com
Oil prices hit wartime high as Iran vows to keep control of Hormuz strait
Oil prices hit wartime high as Iran vows to keep control of Hormuz strait. Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic almost at a standstill , UN says. Could a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran threaten another vital link ?.
Sources: irishtimes.com, yahoo.com, scmp.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 17.0% with $603K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 17.0% with $603K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 17.0% | $603K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 46.0% | $488K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $200 | 1.8% | $194K
Top odds: ↓ $100 | 93.0%
Spotify isnt the only service now integrated with Anthropic Claude
Spotify isnt the only service now integrated with Anthropic Claude. Anthropic adds routines to redesigned Claude Code , here how it works. Anthropic releases 9 Claude connectors for creative tools , including Blender and Adobe.
Sources: 9to5mac.com, 9to5mac.com, 9to5mac.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by What will SpaceX's public ticker be? - $X at 48.0% with $16K traded.
Top volume remains in What will SpaceX's public ticker be? - $X.
Event leaders
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $X | 48.0% | $16K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 50.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 27.0% | $8K
Top odds: Anthropic | 64.1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Top volume & odds: >$1T | 93.6% | $2K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 89.0% | $2K
Popular events
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Jesu Transforming Peace. LDS Church announces open house , dedication dates for Montpelier Idaho Temple. Gab Pangilinan breaks down Mary Magdalene role in Jesus Christ Superstar.
Sources: freerepublic.com, eastidahonews.com, philstar.com
2026 NBA title odds : Thunder , Spurs well ahead of the rest of the field
2026 NBA title odds : Thunder , Spurs well ahead of the rest of the field. ArenaPlus becomes NBA first official betting partner in the Philippines. Adrian Odie Smith , a basketball Hall of Famer who played at Kentucky and in the NBA , dies at 89.
Sources: nytimes.com, manilatimes.net, wfaa.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 2.7% with $229K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 2.7% with $229K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 2.7% | $229K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.4% | $174K
Top volume & odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 98.4% | $111K
Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 80-99 | 1.3% | $31K
Popular events
Bitcoin Next Stop May Be $85K : Here Why
Bitcoin Next Stop May Be $85K : Here Why. Bitcoin Analysts Flip Bullish at $80K : Key BTC Price Levels to Watch Next. Strategy ( MSTR ) Pauses Bitcoin Buys Ahead Of Earnings.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, bitcoinmagazine.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026 at 5.0% with $192K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - June 30, 2026
Trading at 5.0% with $192K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 5.0% | $192K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 10.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 3.0% | $56K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 90,000 | 73.0% | $50K
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume & odds: $150M | 71.0% | $32K
Popular events
Sources: newson6.com, si.com, vavel.com
Simeone after being eliminated from the Champions League : Clear penalty on Griezmann
Simeone after being eliminated from the Champions League : Clear penalty on Griezmann. Bukayo Saka speaks after becoming a hero for Arsenal : Beautiful story , means a lot to us. Saka Fires Arsenal Into First Champions League Final In 20 Years.
Sources: gazetaexpress.com, gazetaexpress.com, channelstv.com
Event leaders
Top volume: Minnesota Wild | 5.7% | $87K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 35.2%
Popular events
Bengaluru rains flood iconic Church Street bookstore , over 4000 books destroyed : This feels terrible.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers – KTBB News , W....
Sources: ktbb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k at 59.0% with $338 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑3k.
Event leaders
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 59.0% | $338
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$12,142
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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