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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 5.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?)" at 3.4% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.7%
Top priced
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.7%
$859
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 21.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan - May 2 , 2026
Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan - May 2 , 2026. US says it struck targets in Iran after attack on warships. Trump Pauses Project Freedom in Hope of Deal With Iran.
Sources: arynews.tv, dw.com, time.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes leads the desk at 3.4% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
IRGC says it will allow safe , stable transit via Hormuz with aggressor threats neutralized
IRGC says it will allow safe , stable transit via Hormuz with aggressor threats neutralized. The Strait of Hormuz candle : Why Sensex surged nearly 500 pts in 12 minutes today. Iran says ports ready to support shipping in Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, moneycontrol.com, moneycontrol.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI leads the desk at 2.8% with $41K traded.
Lead stories
Former OpenAI board member says Elon Musk offered her sperm donations
Former OpenAI board member says Elon Musk offered her sperm donations.
Sources: bbc.co.uk
Anthropic turns to Elon Musk - owned SpaceX for AI compute as Claude demand surges
Anthropic turns to Elon Musk - owned SpaceX for AI compute as Claude demand surges. The 1 Thing Tech Investors Arent Ready For -- but OpenAI Just Proved. Anthropic rolls out higher Claude usage limits after SpaceX compute deal.
Sources: indianexpress.com, fool.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 3.6% with $188K traded.
Lead stories
The Devil Wears Prada 2 box office collection Day 6 : Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway starrer crosses Rs 20 crore mark.... Michael Full Movie Collection : Michael box office collection day 14 : Antoine Fuqua directorial continues strong glo.... Webtoon IP gains traction in Hollywood , emerging markets.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com,
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 19.0% with $205K traded.
Lead stories
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Jim Cramer on Strategy Inc : You Want to Own Bitcoin ? Buy Bitcoin. Another retirement fund discloses $219M stake in MicroStrategy.
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Cavaliers leads the desk at 24.0% with $839K traded.
Lead stories
Paolo Banchero leads balanced Orlando effort in upset : Takeaways from Pistons - Magic Game 1
Paolo Banchero leads balanced Orlando effort in upset : Takeaways from Pistons - Magic Game 1. Pistons vs Magic Tactical Breakdown : Three Ways Detroit Can Beat Orlando. Bucks vs . Pistons Predictions , Odds & Stats – April 8.
Sources: nytimes.com, si.com, 973thegame.iheart.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 9.8% with $561K traded.
Lead stories
More logging wont quell large wildfires | Wallowa County Chieftain
More logging wont quell large wildfires | Wallowa County Chieftain. More logging wont quell large wildfires | Hermiston Herald. More logging wont quell large wildfires | Blue Mountain Eagle.
Sources: wallowa.com, hermistonherald.com, bluemountaineagle.com
Climate Change Commission report urges decisive action as major risks loom
Climate Change Commission report urges decisive action as major risks loom. Climate Change Commission report urges decisive action as major risks loom. BCI - Licensed U . S . Cotton Farmers Slash Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
98.7%
$328
US navy came under missile fire after US attack on Iranian oil tanker , Iran state media says. US imposes new sanctions on Iran , warns shippers not to pay Strait tolls. Iran says it attacked US Navy ships after they targeted Iranian tanker.
Sources: thestar.com.my, jpost.com, aljazeera.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 21.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 21.0% | $1M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 7.0% | $573K
Top odds: December 31 | 26.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.3% | $539K
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume: May 8 | 3.2% | $437K
Top odds: June 30 | 73.0%
Popular events
Vol $573K
8.1%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $604M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $570M0%
French aircraft carrier pre - positions for possible Hormuz mission. US Iran war LIVE : Good talk , says Trump ; Iran expected to respond to US peace proposal today. No ships pass through Strait of Hormuz in last 24 hours amid rising security risks.
Sources: digitaljournal.com, hindustantimes.com, tribune.com.pk
Some 1 , 500 ships trapped in Gulf due to Iran conflict : IMO
Some 1 , 500 ships trapped in Gulf due to Iran conflict : IMO. Macron seeks Iran cooperation on Strait of Hormuz shipping safety plan. US - Iran mutually agree to reopen Strait of Hormuz , ease naval blockade : Report.
Sources: koreatimes.co.kr, moneycontrol.com, indiatvnews.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes at 3.4% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? - Yes
Trading at 3.4% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?) | 3.4% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 29.0% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 50.0% | $298K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 51.0% | $199K
Top odds: ↑ $100 | 78.0%
Anthropic signs computing deal with SpaceX to meet AI demand
Anthropic signs computing deal with SpaceX to meet AI demand. Musk SpaceX strikes data center deal with Anthropic. Inside SpaceXAI : Elon Musk next AI venture after dissolving xAI.
Sources: businesstimes.com.sg, digitaljournal.com, thenews.com.pk
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI at 2.8% with $41K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI
Trading at 2.8% with $41K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.8% | $41K
Top odds: Anthropic | 76.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SX | 2.6% | $24K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 54.5%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 64.4% | $16K
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 3.1% | $12K
Top odds: June 30 | 92.4%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 23.5% | $6K
Episode 117 : Udo Jürgens , Austria Eurovision GOAT
Episode 117 : Udo Jürgens , Austria Eurovision GOAT. When and where is Eurovision Song Contest 2026 taking place. It was one of the biggest upsets in Eurovision history : Welcome to The Song Contest.
Sources: maximumfun.org, manchestereveningnews.co.uk, sbs.com.au
Isabel Klee Memoir About Fostering Dogs Hits # 1 on NYT Bestseller List
Isabel Klee Memoir About Fostering Dogs Hits # 1 on NYT Bestseller List. Gaming News , Reviews , and Walkthroughs from Destructoid. Did Microsoft just tease a new Xbox UI ?.
Sources: aol.co.uk, destructoid.com, theverge.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 3.6% with $188K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 3.6% with $188K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 3.6% | $188K
Top odds: December 31 | 20.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 8.0% | $21K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.8% | $14K
Top volume & odds: Aubry Bracco | 88.0% | $6K
Popular events
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , May 7 , 2026 : Bitcoin holds near $81 , 000 this morning. If The Bitcoin Price Crosses $400 , 000 , Will The Solana Price Reach $1 , 500 ?. $6B In Bitcoin Options Expire In December : Is $115K BTC Price Realistic ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com, cointelegraph.com
Bitcoin BTC USD price drop today reason : BTC USD price today : Bitcoin falls below $80 , 000 amid US – Iran tensions.... TD Cowen Lifts Strategy Price Target to $395 on STRC Funding Shift. Better Store of Value : Bitcoin vs . Gold - Backed Stablecoins.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 19.0% with $205K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 19.0% with $205K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 19.0% | $205K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 73.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.8% | $49K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0%
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 41.0% | $31K
Popular events
The Thunder have owned the Lakers . But the Lakers still have LeBron James. Thunder run away with Game 1 , but Lakers show some fight : Takeaways. Lakers forced the Thunder into an off night and still lost . What can they do ?.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
UCL Final : Martin Keown picks team he wants Arsenal to face between PSG , Bayern
UCL Final : Martin Keown picks team he wants Arsenal to face between PSG , Bayern. Simeone after being eliminated from the Champions League : Clear penalty on Griezmann. Bukayo Saka speaks after becoming a hero for Arsenal : Beautiful story , means a lot to us.
Sources: dailypost.ng, gazetaexpress.com, gazetaexpress.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: PSG | 58.0% | $126K
Top volume: Los Angeles Lakers | 1.5% | $118K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 63.0%
Top volume: Montreal Canadiens | 6.5% | $32K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 38.1%
Popular events
Sources: nzherald.co.nz, nzherald.co.nz, wwd.com
Carlsson , Terry lead Ducks to 5 - 2 win in Game 6 , eliminating the 2 - time conference champ Oilers – KTBB News , W....
Sources: ktbb.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 9.8% with $561K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 9.8% | $561K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$12,593
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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