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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 13.0% and $463K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.8%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 15 leads the desk at 2.4% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Now is the time for a US grand deal with Azerbaijan
Now is the time for a US grand deal with Azerbaijan. Pennsylvania primary election voter guide | FOX 29 Philadelphia. ED arrests ex - Bengal minister Sujit Bose in municipality recruitment scam.
Sources: atlanticcouncil.org, fox29.com, newindianexpress.com
Piers Morgan brutally takes down Keir Starmer in humiliating 10 - word dig
Piers Morgan brutally takes down Keir Starmer in humiliating 10 - word dig. If cabinet members start resigning , Keir Starmer is probably finished. UK Labour crisis deepens as MPs demand Starmer resignation.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 13.0% with $463K traded.
Lead stories
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns. Indian sailor dies in dhow fire near Strait of Hormuz , 17 crew members rescued. France deploys its sole aircraft carrier toward Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, rediff.com, nypost.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic leads the desk at 84.0% with $44K traded.
Lead stories
Sundar Pichai Explains How He Handles Pressure Amid Google AI Push
Sundar Pichai Explains How He Handles Pressure Amid Google AI Push.
Sources: indianexpress.com
Chamath Palihapitiya Says Anthropic Deal Has A Lesson For Elon Musk $2T SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA. Microsoft CEO to testify on his role in OpenAI founding. Microsoft boss to testify on his role in OpenAI founding.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Eurovision Winner 2026 - Greece leads the desk at 21.8% with $341K traded.
Lead stories
Eurovision 2026 : How Israel Became Eurovision Biggest Controversy
Eurovision 2026 : How Israel Became Eurovision Biggest Controversy. Boycotting Spain , Ireland , Slovenia will not show Eurovision. My Lovely boycott : RTÉ Eurovision night schedule is genius trolling.
Sources: forbes.com, digitaljournal.com, irishcentral.com
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 37.0% with $446K traded.
Lead stories
MicroStrategy Reveals It Will Sell Bitcoin Under These Conditions
MicroStrategy Reveals It Will Sell Bitcoin Under These Conditions. Strategy has already sold bitcoin before for tax loss harvesting in December 2022. Scaling Back for Stability : Strategy Smallest Bitcoin Buy of 2026 Signals Tactical Pivot.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, econotimes.com
B7
Lead market: Pistons leads the desk at 53.0% with $598K traded.
Lead stories
Pistons take 2 - 0 series lead over Cavs thanks to defense and sharp 3 - point shooting : Takeaways
Pistons take 2 - 0 series lead over Cavs thanks to defense and sharp 3 - point shooting : Takeaways. Pistons look to extend lead to 2 - 0 in Game 2 of semifinals against Cleveland. Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 05 / 11 / 2026.
Sources: nytimes.com, fox2detroit.com, vavel.com
Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs
Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs. Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs. Thunder strikes first against Lakers as Pistons down Cavs.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 8.8% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Climate Scientist Uncovers Massive Global Emissions Data Errors in Major Climate Pollution Database
Climate Scientist Uncovers Massive Global Emissions Data Errors in Major Climate Pollution Database. There No Such Thing as Climate Policy for Any Government. South Africa : DA Welcomes Latest in Crucial French and German Climate Financing.
Sources: natureworldnews.com, foreignpolicy.com, allafrica.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
98.8%
$25K
Sources: express.co.uk, irishtimes.com, pmnewsnigeria.com
Iran claims missile strike on US forces after alleged attack on tanker in Strait of Hormuz
Iran claims missile strike on US forces after alleged attack on tanker in Strait of Hormuz. US navy came under missile fire after attack on oil tanker : Iran media. Iran says US Navy hit with missiles after its tanker attacked.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, dunyanews.tv, samaa.tv
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 15 at 2.4% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 15.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 6.0% | $591K
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 19.0% | $530K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 2.0% | $440K
Popular events
8.3%
-0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $613M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $576M0%
Italy says no Hormuz mission underway despite naval movements. Confirmed strike on vessel may reshape Seoul stance on joining US - led Hormuz mission : experts. Confirmed strike on vessel may reshape Seoul stance on joining US - led Hormuz mission : experts.
Sources: aa.com.tr, koreaherald.com, koreaherald.com
Diamondback bets on wider WTI - Brent gap amid US export ban concerns
Diamondback bets on wider WTI - Brent gap amid US export ban concerns. Brent Crude price comes around $102 amid hopes of US - Iran Deal. $7 Billion In Perfectly Timed Oil Bets Sparks Insider Trading Fears.
Sources: marketscreener.com, en.dailypakistan.com.pk, oilprice.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 13.0% with $463K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 13.0% with $463K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 13.0% | $463K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 36.0% | $332K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 50.0% | $187K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 63.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 96.7% | $177K
Some Early OpenAI Workers Became Very , Very Rich
Some Early OpenAI Workers Became Very , Very Rich. OpenAI employees cashed out $6 . 6B in stock sales last fall , earning up to $30M each : report. San Francisco Real Estate Is Booming Even Before the AI IPOs.
Sources: newser.com, nypost.com, businessinsider.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic at 84.0% with $44K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic
Trading at 84.0% with $44K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 84.0% | $44K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 29.2% | $13K
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 94.6% | $8K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Top volume & odds: >$1T | 95.0% | $8K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?) | 1.6% | $7K
Popular events
The Global Story - What Elon Musk did next. Has Elon Musk Been Tweeting From His Mother X Account ?. What Shivon Zilis , mother of Elon Musk four children , told court about her relationship with Tesla CEO.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, brobible.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Eurovision Winner 2026 - Greece at 21.8% with $341K traded.
Top volume remains in Eurovision Winner 2026 - Greece.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 1.7% | $169K
Top odds: December 31 | 18.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $138K
Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Top volume: 40-59 | 1.4% | $65K
Top odds: Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026? | 20.0%
Popular events
Bitcoin Whales Have Stacked 270K BTC in 30 Days : Could It Be a Bottom Signal ?. Bitcoin Trend Reversal Signal Flashes as $82 . 5K Resistance Key for Bulls. Can Bitcoin Price Cross $200 , 000 ? Pundit Reveals 3 - Year Roadmap For Success.
Sources: 247wallst.com, cointelegraph.com, newsbtc.com
Bitcoin Traders Prepare for New Local Highs as $80 , 000 Holds
Bitcoin Traders Prepare for New Local Highs as $80 , 000 Holds. Bitcoin Risks 30 % Drop as Multi - Month Resistance Caps BTC Price Again. Oil Spike , BTC Swings and a $32 . 6M Bet on Bitcoin Scaling.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, partners.coinspeaker.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 37.0% with $446K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 37.0% with $446K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 37.0% | $446K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 87.0%
Popular events
The Thunder have owned the Lakers . But the Lakers still have LeBron James
The Thunder have owned the Lakers . But the Lakers still have LeBron James. Thunder run away with Game 1 , but Lakers show some fight : Takeaways. Lakers forced the Thunder into an off night and still lost . What can they do ?.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Pistons | 53.0% | $598K
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 16.9% | $308K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 63.0%
Top volume & odds: Thunder | 83.0% | $195K
Top volume & odds: PSG | 58.0% | $93K
Top volume: Colorado Avalanche | 35.7% | $22K
Top odds: Carolina Hurricanes | 37.0%
Popular events
APG|SGA Sustainability Report 2025 : significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Malaysia needs a credible carbon pricing framework. The Air - Brushing of Climate Change.
Sources: webwire.com, freemalaysiatoday.com, counterpunch.org
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020
Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs.
Sources: wral.com, wnep.com, mauinews.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 8.8% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 8.8% | $2M
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,773
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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