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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.8% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 7.0% and $659K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026 leads the desk at 6.9% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Epstein Cellmate Hits Back at Brother Claim Suicide Note Is a Fake
Epstein Cellmate Hits Back at Brother Claim Suicide Note Is a Fake. Epstein files on display at New York pop - up exhibit , all 3 . 5 million pages. Jeffrey Epstein Brother Claims Bombshell Suicide Note Was a Forgery.
Sources: radaronline.com, geo.tv, radaronline.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 7.0% with $659K traded.
Lead stories
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns.
Sources: globalsecurity.org
US confirms Warsh as Fed chair amid pressure from Trump
US confirms Warsh as Fed chair amid pressure from Trump. Who is Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh ?. Who is Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh ? - MyNorthwest . com.
Sources: dailysabah.com, seattletimes.com,
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI leads the desk at 2.5% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments
Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments. Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking News.... Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, asahi.com, seattletimes.com
UK takeaway serving burgers and chips crashes into liquidation - open since 2022
UK takeaway serving burgers and chips crashes into liquidation - open since 2022.
B5
Lead market: Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026? - 80-99 leads the desk at 1.2% with $798K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI Trial Highlights Criticism of Musk , Altman Management Styles
OpenAI Trial Highlights Criticism of Musk , Altman Management Styles. The Global Story - What Elon Musk did next. What Shivon Zilis , mother of Elon Musk four children , told court about her relationship with Tesla CEO.
Sources: bloomberg.com, bbc.co.uk, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 40.0% with $368K traded.
Lead stories
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. MicroStrategy Reveals It Will Sell Bitcoin Under These Conditions. Analyst Says Trump Can Take Bitcoin to 500K . This ETF Might Go Parabolic.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Current price of Bitcoin for May 31 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for May 31 , 2026. Here When Bitcoin Could Reach $10M Under Power Law Model. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , May 13 , 2026 : Prices holding as China summit kicks off.
B7
Lead market: Cavaliers leads the desk at 24.0% with $377K traded.
Lead stories
Pistons take 2 - 0 series lead over Cavs thanks to defense and sharp 3 - point shooting : Takeaways
Pistons take 2 - 0 series lead over Cavs thanks to defense and sharp 3 - point shooting : Takeaways. Cavs ride 22 - 0 run to Game 4 victory , tie series as it returns to Detroit. Pistons look to extend lead to 2 - 0 in Game 2 of semifinals against Cleveland.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, fox2detroit.com
Jason Collins , NBA first openly gay player , dies of brain tumor
Jason Collins , NBA first openly gay player , dies of brain tumor. Jason Collins , NBA first openly gay player , dies of brain tumor. Jason Collins , NBA first openly gay player , dies of brain tumor.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.2% with $919K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus a concern as spring cleaning is around the corner - DiscoverEstevan . com - Local news , Weather , Sports....
Sources: discoverestevan.com
Ocean Heat and El Niño Raise Global Alarm as Rising Ocean Temperatures Trigger Growing Climate Impacts. Electricity emissions fall for third consecutive year. Nedbank report signals ESG shift towards climate transition investing.
Sources: ,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.8%
$4K
NBA MVP - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98.4%
$20K
Tensions over pro - Israel lobbying group highlight rifts in Democratic primaries. Trump brushes aside Taiwan concerns ahead of Xi meet. Now is the time for a US grand deal with Azerbaijan.
Sources: marketscreener.com, bssnews.net, atlanticcouncil.org
You failed my people - Adamawa South senator , Yaroe tells Tinubu , APC
You failed my people - Adamawa South senator , Yaroe tells Tinubu , APC. The Hindu Morning Digest : May 10 , 2026. Pennsylvania primary election voter guide | FOX 29 Philadelphia.
Sources: dailypost.ng, thehindu.com, fox29.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026 at 6.9% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026.
Lead event
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026
Trading at 6.9% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 6.9% | $1M
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume: Donald Trump Jr. | 1.5% | $414K
Top odds: JD Vance | 18.7%
Top volume: Michelle Bolsonaro | 1.5% | $371K
Top odds: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 44.0%
Popular events
8.8%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $616M
Presidential election
Event volume $580M
Iran , Oman hold talks on Hormuz Strait , discuss sovereign rights over strategic waterway
Iran , Oman hold talks on Hormuz Strait , discuss sovereign rights over strategic waterway. Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz fall nearly 30 % in first quarter : EIA. UK to contribute drones , jets and warship to Multinational Mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, aa.com.tr, globalsecurity.org
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 7.0% with $659K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 7.0% with $659K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 7.0% | $659K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 32.0% | $204K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 52.0% | $156K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 82.0%
Sources: express.co.uk
Anthropic is making its Claude chatbot more appealing to consumers
Anthropic is making its Claude chatbot more appealing to consumers. OpenAI takes on Anthropic Claude Mythos with new cybersecurity AI system Daybreak. AI Helped Hackers Create Undetectable Cyberattack for the First Time Ever.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, businesstoday.in, propakistani.pk
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI at 2.5% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - OpenAI
Trading at 2.5% with $37K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: OpenAI | 2.5% | $37K
Top odds: Anthropic | 86.0%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SPAX | 3.0% | $7K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 59.9%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 92.0% | $4K
Top odds: June 30 | 96.4%
Popular events
When is Eurovision 2026 and final date as latest winner odds revealed | TV & Radio | Showbiz & TV. What we know so far about Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 , with Philippines confirmed among participants. Eurovision 2026 watch party confirmed for Newcastle with themed drinks and fancy dress contest.
News brief in progress
Editors are compiling the latest reports on Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027.
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026? - 80-99 at 1.2% with $798K traded.
Top volume remains in Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026? - 80-99.
Event leaders
Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 80-99 | 1.2% | $798K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 1.1% | $139K
Top odds: December 31 | 15.0%
Popular events
Sources: fortune.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
How Eric Trump American Bitcoin Lost $500 Million In Shareholder Value In 8 Months - American Bitcoin (. Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Monday , April 27 , 2026 : Prices hold ahead of potential peace talks and Fed meeting. 1 Reason Bitcoin Could Still Make You a Retirement Millionaire.
Sources: benzinga.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 40.0% with $368K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 40.0% with $368K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 40.0% | $368K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 86.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.0% | $28K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0%
Popular events
Sources: fox10phoenix.com, fox2detroit.com, ktvu.com
Craig Berube Fired by Maple Leafs , Toronto Owns No . 1 Pick in 2026 NHL Draft
Craig Berube Fired by Maple Leafs , Toronto Owns No . 1 Pick in 2026 NHL Draft. Carolina and Colorado have yet to lose in these NHL playoffs , making history with their hot starts. Jessica Pegula putting family experience in NFL and NHL to use in tennis prize money protest.
Sources: bleacherreport.com, durangoherald.com, abc.net.au
Event leaders
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.8% | $267K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 59.0%
Top volume: Anaheim Ducks | 1.8% | $61K
Top odds: Carolina Hurricanes | 38.0%
Top volume & odds: PSG | 58.0% | $57K
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
Top volume: Minnesota Timberwolves | 3.1% | $29K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 70.0%
Popular events
Vol $377K
Sunkonnect plans to cut emissions by 9 . 6 lakh tonne a year across India event , exhibition ind
Sunkonnect plans to cut emissions by 9 . 6 lakh tonne a year across India event , exhibition ind. Carney government to agree to weaken carbon price in Alberta. Western Cape energy transition attracts billions in renewable investment.
Sources: dailyexcelsior.com, niagarafallsreview.ca, cbn.co.za
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.2% with $919K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.2% | $919K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$11,206
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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