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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.1% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 31.0% and $552K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? - December 31 leads the desk at 18.0% with $794K traded.
Lead stories
Third round of Israel - Lebanon talks open in Washington
Third round of Israel - Lebanon talks open in Washington. Hezbollah MP says direct talks free concession to Israel. Israel and Lebanon meet in D . C . again for peace talks.
Sources: prokerala.com, naharnet.com, klcc.org
Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan
Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan. Araghchi slams Kuwait for attacking Iranian boat , demands release of nationals. Pezeshkian : The Iranian people have shown that the path to overcoming difficulties lies through national solidarity.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 31.0% with $552K traded.
Lead stories
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns
Countries obeying US sanctions will certainly face problem in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Army warns.
Sources: globalsecurity.org
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible
Trump says Iran in state of collapse , wants Strait of Hormuz opened as soon as possible.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google leads the desk at 23.0% with $103K traded.
Lead stories
Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments
Japan SoftBank racks up huge profit gains with lift from lucrative AI investments. Sam Altman held over $2 billion in stakes in OpenAI partner firms , court filings show. UK takeaway serving burgers and chips crashes into liquidation - open since 2022.
Sources: seattletimes.com, indianexpress.com, express.co.uk
B5
Lead market: Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria leads the desk at 1.6% with $130K traded.
Lead stories
Armenia to perform sixth in Eurovision semi - final
Armenia to perform sixth in Eurovision semi - final. Armenia to perform sixth in Eurovision semi - final. Take the ultimate Eurovision quiz ! Can you avoid nul points ?.
Sources: panarmenian.net, panarmenian.net, theguardian.com
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters. AMVCA 2026 Cultural Night : Stars celebrate African heritage. Jaafar Jackson pays tribute to Michael Jackson at Met Gala 2026.
Sources: ,
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 57.0% with $299K traded.
Lead stories
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming ? Galaxy CEO Warns Not Enough Supply For Michael Saylor Buying Strategy.
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 66.0% with $267K traded.
Lead stories
Victor Wembanyama , Spurs shine in Game 5 win over Timberwolves
Victor Wembanyama , Spurs shine in Game 5 win over Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards saves the day as Timberwolves tie series after Victor Wembanyama ejection. Highlights and points of Minnesota Timberwolves 108 - 115 San Antonio Spurs in NBA Playoffs 2026 | 05 / 08 / 2026.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, vavel.com
NYT Connections Answers Explained For Friday , May 15 (# 1 , 069 )
NYT Connections Answers Explained For Friday , May 15 (# 1 , 069 ). How to live stream NBA Draft Lottery , odds , TV channel. NBA Champion Moses Moody bringing teammate Stephen Curry to Little Rock.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.5% with $707K traded.
Lead stories
What Are the Best Sustainable Energy Options for Your Home ?
What Are the Best Sustainable Energy Options for Your Home ?. Energy minister Dix says four new wind farms will power B . C . energy sovereignty. China goes electric , but can it get off coal ?.
Sources: emagazine.com, panow.com, dw.com
India top banks failing to tackle climate risk as threats grow
India top banks failing to tackle climate risk as threats grow. Energy minister Dix says four new wind farms will power B . C . energy sovereignty. Mark Carney is hoping building up Canada will drive down greenhouse gases.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
98.6%
$4K
Epstein Cellmate Hits Back at Brother Claim Suicide Note Is a Fake
Epstein Cellmate Hits Back at Brother Claim Suicide Note Is a Fake. Epstein files on display at New York pop - up exhibit , all 3 . 5 million pages. Jeffrey Epstein Brother Claims Bombshell Suicide Note Was a Forgery.
Sources: radaronline.com, geo.tv, radaronline.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? - December 31 at 18.0% with $794K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? - December 31.
Event leaders
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $794K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 6.0% | $514K
Top odds: December 31 | 27.0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 6.7% | $433K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 1.1% | $411K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 12.0% | $306K
Top odds: December 31 | 64.0%
Popular events
8.8%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $616M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $581M0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair as central bank faces Trump assault. US confirms Warsh as Fed chair amid pressure from Trump. Warsh clinches Senate approval to be Fed next chair.
Sources: straitstimes.com, dailysabah.com, koreaherald.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 31.0% with $552K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 31.0% with $552K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 31.0% | $552K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 7.0% | $481K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $140 | 4.4% | $136K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 80.0%
Trump , Xi meet in Beijing for talks on trade , AI , global issues.
Sources: pajhwok.com
OpenAI chief Altman has over $2 billion stake in companies that dealt with OpenAI , court filing shows. Altman said to have over $2b stake in firms doing business with OpenAI. OpenAI chief Altman has over $2 billion stake in companies that dealt with OpenAI : court filing.
Sources: thestar.com.my, dealstreetasia.com, marketscreener.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google at 23.0% with $103K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Google
Trading at 23.0% with $103K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume: Google | 23.0% | $103K
Top odds: Anthropic | 78.0%
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Top volume & odds: AI / Artificial Intelligence | 27.0% | $17K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 25.0% | $16K
Top odds: Anthropic | 67.9%
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 7.5% | $3K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 58.0%
Bucks Fizz crowned united kingdom best Eurovision entry for second year running
Bucks Fizz crowned united kingdom best Eurovision entry for second year running. Bucks Fizz crowned united kingdom best Eurovision entry for second year running. Bucks Fizz crowned united kingdom best Eurovision entry for second year running.
Sources: bristolpost.co.uk, plymouthherald.co.uk, somersetlive.co.uk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria at 1.6% with $130K traded.
Top volume remains in Eurovision Winner 2026 - Bulgaria.
Event leaders
GTA VI released before June 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (GTA VI released before June 2026?) | 1.1% | $96K
Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner
Top volume & odds: Israel | 52.0% | $24K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 3.5% | $20K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 7.1%
Popular events
Current price of Bitcoin for May 14 , 2026. Is It Time To Sell ? Bitcoin Price Enters Redistribution Phase That Previously Led To A 78 % Crash. What Is Strategy ( MSTR )? The Bitcoin Treasury Company.
Sources: fortune.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Firm Nakamoto Records Q1 Net Loss Despite Revenue Boom
Bitcoin Firm Nakamoto Records Q1 Net Loss Despite Revenue Boom. Dartmouth Endowment Invests in Solana ETF , Holds $14M in Crypto Exposure. Bitcoin lagging gold is exciting , says Anchorage head of research.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 57.0% with $299K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 57.0% with $299K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 57.0% | $299K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 92.0%
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 2.1% | $138K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 17.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.6% | $20K
Popular events
Sources: forbes.com, thebiglead.com, thv11.com
How to Watch Cubs vs . Braves : Streaming & TV on May 14 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate
How to Watch Cubs vs . Braves : Streaming & TV on May 14 | 1049 Fox Sports Upstate. Cubs vs . Braves odds , prediction : MLB picks , best bets Thursday. Atlanta Braves first team to reach 30 wins this season.
Sources: 1049foxsports.iheart.com, nypost.com, wsbtv.com
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spurs | 66.0% | $267K
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Top volume & odds: Chicago Cubs | 88.0% | $162K
Top volume & odds: Scottie Scheffler | 34.0% | $52K
Top volume & odds: Colorado Avalanche | 39.4% | $52K
Popular events
Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020
Flyers beat Hurricanes in 3 - 2 in a shootout and secure their first playoff berth since 2020. Flyers beat East top seed Hurricanes 3 - 2 in SO and secure their first playoff berth since 2020 | News , Sports , Jobs. Buffalo Sabres ending their NHL - record playoff drought inspires joy beyond Buffalo.
Sources: wnep.com, mauinews.com, tsn.ca
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.5% with $707K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.5% | $707K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$17,569
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#5
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