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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.1% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 4.6% and $791K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30 leads the desk at 11.0% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Around 120 , 000 Syrian refugees return home from Lebanon
Around 120 , 000 Syrian refugees return home from Lebanon. Early this morning right - wing activists chained themselves to the Syrian border. As Netanyahu spotlights Israel ties to the UAE , its rulers prefer to be discreet – Twin Cities.
Sources: arabnews.com, israelnationalnews.com, twincities.com
An unlikely politician , Julia Letlow could be Bill Cassidy successor
An unlikely politician , Julia Letlow could be Bill Cassidy successor. Xi Jinping vs Donald Trump : Summit Signals China Rise - Pakistan Today. China : Donald Trump Beijing visit was more vibes than details . And Xi Jinping set the tone.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 4.6% with $791K traded.
Lead stories
Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz
Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz. LPG tanker Symi reaches Kandla after safe passage through Strait of Hormuz. As Britain , France try prying Hormuz open with their own crowbars , Uncle Sam forms new coalition * WorldNetDaily *....
Sources: tribune.com.pk, moneycontrol.com, wnd.com
Larry Kudlow : Jay Powell Is Stupid to Stay at Fed Reserve
Larry Kudlow : Jay Powell Is Stupid to Stay at Fed Reserve. Wall Street is keeping a close eye on Kevin Warsh . This is what theyre watching out for. We need to talk about Kevin Warsh economy : Morning Brief.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic leads the desk at 92.0% with $68K traded.
Lead stories
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic. Claude just took over the data center Grok needed most. Chamath Palihapitiya Warns Anthropic Risks Becoming Friendster Of The AI Era After Claude Refuses Stock.
Sources: bloomberg.com, digitaltrends.com, benzinga.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 1.1% with $65K traded.
Lead stories
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters. Can Cannes stay Cannes in the age of influencers ?. Cannes 2026 Opening Ceremony : Time , Host , Performers , Celebrity Guest , Live Streaming And TV Channel Broadcast.
Sources: newsx.com, theweek.in, newsx.com
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 31.0% with $288K traded.
Lead stories
Unstoppable Crypto Exchange Halts Trading After $10 Million Theft
Unstoppable Crypto Exchange Halts Trading After $10 Million Theft. BeInCrypto Institutional Research : 15 Firms Leading On - Chain Finance Infrastructure. Italy Largest Bank Adds Bitcoin , Eth and XRP Exposure in Q1.
Sources: gizmodo.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Michael Saylor Floated Bitcoin Sales Idea to Avoid Impairing The Asset
Michael Saylor Floated Bitcoin Sales Idea to Avoid Impairing The Asset. We Asked Claude AI Where Bitcoin ( BTC ) Will Be On The Day The Fed Cuts Rates. Current price of Bitcoin for May 31 , 2026.
B7
Lead market: Cavaliers leads the desk at 38.0% with $247K traded.
Lead stories
Cavaliers vs . Pistons Game 7 prediction : Beware of James Harden in closeout games
Cavaliers vs . Pistons Game 7 prediction : Beware of James Harden in closeout games. Dabble promo code NYPBONUS : Get $10 when you sign - up for Cavaliers vs . Pistons. Chalkboard promo code NYPOST : Get a 100 % deposit match up to $100 + free pick for Cavaliers vs . Pistons.
Sources: nypost.com, nypost.com, nypost.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.2% with $241K traded.
Lead stories
Column : Legislature falls short on climate action again | Honolulu Star - Advertiser
Column : Legislature falls short on climate action again | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Travel industry executives remain committed to environment and sustainability. Ed Miliband wind turbines and solar farms ARE bad for environment.
Sources: staradvertiser.com, eturbonews.com, dailymail.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
#1 Awaiting data
n/a
#2 Awaiting data
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#3 Awaiting data
n/a
Kalshi via Jupiter
+$77,609
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
98.7%
$11K
Sources: yahoo.com, pakistantoday.com.pk, 9news.com.au
Community Notes Levels Hilarious Claim From Iranian Regime Account About Encounter With US Warship
Community Notes Levels Hilarious Claim From Iranian Regime Account About Encounter With US Warship. US imposes new sanctions on IRGC oil networks. WSJ : Iranians Starting to Notice Nepo Babytollah Absence.
Sources: redstate.com, israelnationalnews.com, hotair.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30 at 11.0% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in Israel x Syria security agreement by...? - June 30.
Event leaders
Israel x Syria security agreement by...?
Top volume & odds: June 30 | 11.0% | $4M
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Top volume & odds: Iran | 2.0% | $2M
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 1.2% | $556K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 6.0% | $383K
Top odds: December 31 | 28.0%
8.6%
-0.4pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $620M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $584M0%
Sources: mediaite.com, fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com
Tehran asserts sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz shipping
Tehran asserts sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz shipping. Unacceptable : India condemns attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz at UN. Iran Says It Will Block Enemy Arms Shipments Through Hormuz.
Sources: middleeasteye.net, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, khaama.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 4.6% with $791K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 4.6% with $791K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 4.6% | $791K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.0% | $248K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 29.0% | $226K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 1.9% | $86K
Top odds: ↑ $105 | 83.0%
Popular events
Chamath Palihapitiya Warns Anthropic Risks Becoming Friendster Of The AI Era After Claude Refuses Stock. Chamath Palihapitiya Says Anthropic Deal Has A Lesson For Elon Musk $2T SpaceX IPO - Tesla ( NASDAQ : TSLA. Trump heads to China to spread the gospel of American tech.
Sources: benzinga.com, benzinga.com, theguardian.com
SpaceX IPO 2026 : US Stock Market IPO in 2026 : SpaceX , Anthropic , OpenAI , Inspire Brands , Discord . Check filing.... Cerebras just had the biggest US tech IPO since Snowflake . SpaceX , OpenAI , and Anthropic are next .. SpaceX heads into IPO with deepest moat that exist as investors vow to never bet against Elon.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, thenextweb.com, fortune.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic at 92.0% with $68K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic
Trading at 92.0% with $68K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 92.0% | $68K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 23.0% | $21K
Top odds: Anthropic | 72.8%
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 98.7% | $11K
Breaking News - Survivor 50 Announces One Final Vote in the Hands of the Fans. Rob Cesternino Defends Rizo Decision To Betray His Survivor 50 Allies. Survivor Jeff Probst Addresses Zac Brown Cameo Backlash.
Sources: thefutoncritic.com, cinemablend.com, eonline.com
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : The Hour of Glory - Sunday , May 17 ,.... The perfect priesthood of Christ and the longest prayer in the Gospels. Can worship be mixed with doubt ?.
Sources: freerepublic.com, catholicworldreport.com, philstar.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 1.1% with $65K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 1.1% with $65K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 1.1% | $65K
Top odds: December 31 | 13.0%
Top volume & odds: Aubry Bracco | 94.0% | $21K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $18K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 3.6% | $5K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 12.5%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 17.0% | $2K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 59.0%
Popular events
Sources: cointelegraph.com, 247wallst.com, fortune.com
Strategy Quietly Confirms Shock Plan To Sell Bitcoin , Sparking Sudden Price Crash Panic
Strategy Quietly Confirms Shock Plan To Sell Bitcoin , Sparking Sudden Price Crash Panic. Current price of Bitcoin for May 14 , 2026. Bitcoin Slides Under $79K on Macro Fears : Is a Rebound Around the Corner ?.
Sources: forbes.com, fortune.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 31.0% with $288K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 31.0% with $288K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 31.0% | $288K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 85.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit May 11-17?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 76,000 | 8.9% | $89K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 80.0% | $12K
Top odds: $50M | 93.4%
Popular events
Mohamed Salah & Arne Slot : Liverpool unrest continues as Xabi Alonso chooses Chelsea. Casemiro : Brazilian prepares to say farewell to Man Utd and Old Trafford. Xabi Alonso Reportedly Hired As Chelsea Manager for 2026 EPL Season , Latest Contract Details.
Sources: bbc.com, bbc.com, bleacherreport.com
NYT Connections Answers Explained For Friday , May 15 (# 1 , 069 )
NYT Connections Answers Explained For Friday , May 15 (# 1 , 069 ). Shai Gilgeous - Alexander Wins Second Consecutive MVP. Billy Donovan to step down from the Chicago Bulls.
Sources: forbes.com, blazersedge.com, vavel.com
Event leaders
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Top volume & odds: San Diego Padres | 94.7% | $237K
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 23.3% | $113K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 59.0%
Top volume: Montreal Canadiens | 7.0% | $45K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 39.8%
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume: Detroit Pistons | 24.1% | $31K
Top odds: New York Knicks | 66.0%
Popular events
Power Purchase Agreement for renewable energy projects in Mahout and Duqm awarded. Can engineering save the environment ? | Borneo Post Online. Progressive Charlestown : The High Cost of Climate Change Inaction.
Stanley Cup Odds : Hurricanes and Avalanche on Collision Course for Stanley Cup Final
Stanley Cup Odds : Hurricanes and Avalanche on Collision Course for Stanley Cup Final. Blake OT winner gives Carolina Hurricanes win in Game 4 to complete sweep over Philadelphia Flyers.
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 7.2% with $241K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 7.2% | $241K
Popular events
+$23,195
+$12,674
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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