Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 4.4% and $532K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? - Iran leads the desk at 1.1% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Pompeo Says China Xi Has Lied Multiple Times to Multiple Presidents , Calls Taiwan Comments to Trump a Threat. Jimmy Kimmel Roasts Trump Trip to Home of America First Merch. Xi Jinping Drops Rare Putin Warning During Trump China Talks As The Russian President Visits Beijing.
Sources: theepochtimes.com, thedailybeast.com, benzinga.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 4.4% with $532K traded.
Lead stories
Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz
Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz. Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz. Iran announces launch of new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, tribune.com.pk, timesofoman.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic leads the desk at 96.9% with $51K traded.
Lead stories
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic. Chamath Palihapitiya Warns Anthropic Risks Becoming Friendster Of The AI Era After Claude Refuses Stock. Chamath Palihapitiya Warns Anthropic Risks Becoming Friendster Of The AI Era After Claude Refuses Stock.
Sources: bloomberg.com, benzinga.com, benzinga.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 15.0% with $238K traded.
Lead stories
10 festivals and conventions to keep on your summer radar
10 festivals and conventions to keep on your summer radar. 10 festivals and conventions to keep on your summer radar. Kardashian Sister Most A - List Boyfriends Ranked With Jacob Elordi Rumoured as Newest Addition.
Sources: dailynews.com, pasadenastarnews.com, ibtimes.co.uk
FIFA World Cup : Official branding blankets North Texas , local brewery offers soccer - themed beer
FIFA World Cup : Official branding blankets North Texas , local brewery offers soccer - themed beer. FIFA World Cup | FOX 7 Austin. ITV confirms 2026 World Cup presenter line - up with new 24 / 7 channel.
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 35.0% with $331K traded.
Lead stories
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility
Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : MicroStrategy Massive BTC Bet and IBIT Flows Keep Bulls Focused on $83K Retest. Billionaire Godfather has a blunt warning on Bitcoin.
Sources: insidermonkey.com, bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Cavaliers leads the desk at 42.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Do the Knicks match up better against the Pistons or the Cavaliers ?
Do the Knicks match up better against the Pistons or the Cavaliers ?. James Harden , Donovan Mitchell versus the red - hot Knicks : Who will win , and why ?. Knicks - Cavaliers matchup isnt a shock , but how we got here is surprising.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz. Manila Bulletin - San Antonio has one Filipino - American standout in its arsenal. Ben Simmon South Florida Sails Fishing Team Wins Walker Cay Blue Marlin Open in Bahamas.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 6.3% with $311K traded.
Lead stories
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future. OQ launches 2025 sustainability report , highlights 24 % rise in local value added. What Are the Best Sustainable Energy Options for Your Home ?.
Sources: techtimes.com, timesofoman.com, emagazine.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$3K
Iran Exiled Crown Prince Slams Trump Mixed Signal To The Islamist Regime , Says It Time To Finis. Iran Reportedly Hits UAE Nuclear Site , and Trump Patience With the Regime Appears Finished. Economic Fury : U . S . Treasury Targets Iranian Exchange and Hamas Flotilla Fools – PJ Media.
Sources: benzinga.com, redstate.com, pjmedia.com
Iran says new US aggression will result in stronger response
Iran says new US aggression will result in stronger response. Missiles , oil infra , maritime chokepoints : How Iran could retaliate if US - Israel strikes resume and why Gulf nat....
Sources: tribune.com.pk, moneycontrol.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? - Iran at 1.1% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? - Iran.
Lead event
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? - Iran
Trading at 1.1% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Top volume: Iran | 1.1% | $2M
Top odds: Nuclear | 1.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?) | 1.4% | $1M
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 6.3% | $596K
Top odds: December 31 | 29.0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Top volume & odds: June 30, 2026 | 2.0% | $350K
8.6%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $631M
Presidential election
Event volume $590M
Trump going to let Warsh do what he wants to do at Fed with rates. Best high - yield savings interest rates today , May 19 , 2026 : Earn up to 4 . 1 % APY. Best money market account rates today , May 19 , 2026 : Earn up to 4 . 01 % APY.
Iran imposes tolls as new Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control
Iran imposes tolls as new Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control. Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz , announces new body to regulate and toll shipping. Trump warns Iran clock is ticking ; UAE reports drone strike at nuclear power plant.
Sources: jpost.com, moneycontrol.com, independent.ie
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 4.4% with $532K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 4.4% with $532K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 4.4% | $532K
Top volume & odds: No change | 98.0% | $316K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 27.0% | $294K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $150 | 2.0% | $185K
Top odds: ↑ $110 | 61.0%
Top volume: Apple | 2.8% | $111K
Top odds: Largest Company end of June? | 85.0%
Popular events
How united kingdom investors can get exposure to OpenAI , Anthropic and SpaceX ahead of their blockbuster listings. SpaceX IPO Buzz Grows as Elon Musk Pushes AI , Robotaxis , and Space Dominance. BingX Becomes First Exchange to Offer OpenAI Pre - IPO Airdrop.
Sources: proactiveinvestors.co.uk, techstory.in, newswire.ca
Grok downloads fall nearly 60 %
Grok downloads fall nearly 60 %. What Fronter AI Models Like Mythos & GPT - Cyber Mean for Cybersecurity. AI tensions and chip controls dominate Trump - Xi summit in Beijing.
Sources: socialmediatoday.com, infosecurity-magazine.com, domain-b.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic at 96.9% with $51K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic
Trading at 96.9% with $51K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 96.9% | $51K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 29.0% | $36K
Top odds: Anthropic | 67.7%
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 81.0% | $30K
Top odds: June 30 | 97.6%
Top volume & odds: Goldman Sachs | 98.4% | $23K
Sources: fox4news.com, fox7austin.com, tvguide.co.uk
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Sharing In Eternal Glory. Christ , Christendom , and the Gulf in Between. How wet noodle Christian surrendered America to Marxists.
Sources: freerepublic.com, redstate.com, theblaze.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 15.0% with $238K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 15.0% with $238K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 15.0% | $238K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 94.0% | $151K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $46K
Top volume & odds: Aubry Bracco | 96.9% | $10K
Popular events
Bitcoin and ethereum price today , Monday , April 27 , 2026 : Prices hold ahead of potential peace talks and Fed meeting. It Time Bitcoin Suddenly Braced For Price Shock After Surprise BlackRock Flip. Bitcoin Price Yet To Bottom Based On MVRV Bands $43K Still Possible ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, forbes.com, newsbtc.com
Could Buying Bitcoin Today Still Set You Up for Life ?
Could Buying Bitcoin Today Still Set You Up for Life ?. If You Invested $1 , 000 in Bitcoin on Inauguration Day 2025 , Here What Youd Have Now. North America Largest Bitcoin ATM Operator Files For Bankruptcy.
Sources: fool.com, finance.yahoo.com, wsus1023.iheart.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 35.0% with $331K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 35.0% with $331K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 35.0% | $331K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 85.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.4% | $15K
Ethereum all time high by ___?
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 3.4% | $10K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 11.0%
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $500M | 47.0% | $6K
Top odds: $50M | 94.8%
Popular events
Sources: yardbarker.com, mb.com.ph, bleacherreport.com
Ex - NBA champ Rick Fox appointed opposition senator in Bahamas
Ex - NBA champ Rick Fox appointed opposition senator in Bahamas. Former NBA champ Rick Fox appointed opposition senator in the Bahamas after election loss. New Car Accident Movie Beats Aaron Pierre Epic Sports Comedy on Streaming.
Sources: abc7.com, pressdemocrat.com, comingsoon.net
Event leaders
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 4.2% | $597K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 42.0%
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 32.0% | $158K
Top odds: New York Knicks | 70.0%
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 54.0% | $136K
Top volume: Montreal Canadiens | 10.9% | $107K
Top odds: Colorado Avalanche | 39.7%
Popular events
On Nature : Climate Change Choice | News , Sports , Jobs - Tama - Toledo News Chronicle. Column : Legislature falls short on climate action again | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Electricity emissions fall for third consecutive year.
Sources: tamatoledonews.com, staradvertiser.com, rte.ie
Stanley Cup playoffs : Hurricanes and Canadiens square off in the Eastern Conference finals
Stanley Cup playoffs : Hurricanes and Canadiens square off in the Eastern Conference finals. The Hurricanes are about to test whether there such thing as too much playoff rest. Hurricanes Open 2 - 0 Lead in NHL Standings Push Nhl Standings.
Sources: abc11.com, russianmachineneverbreaks.com, el-balad.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 6.3% with $311K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 6.3% | $311K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,115
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a