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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 5.7% and $607K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Top priced
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑2k
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 leads the desk at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Trump endorses Ken Paxton in Texas , gambling on a challenger with baggage in a crucial race
Trump endorses Ken Paxton in Texas , gambling on a challenger with baggage in a crucial race. Georgia GOP secretary of state primary shaped by 2020 election debates. Delta Speaker Guwor , Ex - Governor Uduaghan Daughter , Others Win APC Tickets For 2027 Elections.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, foxnews.com,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 5.7% with $607K traded.
Lead stories
Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz
Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz. Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz. Iran announces launch of new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, tribune.com.pk, timesofoman.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic leads the desk at 97.3% with $55K traded.
Lead stories
Facebook Meta to begin notifying staff of layoffs
Facebook Meta to begin notifying staff of layoffs. Meta Layoffs : Meta begins 8 , 000 global job cuts in Asian hub of Singapore , ETTelecom. Warren Buffett Successor Greg Abel Just Dumped Amazon Stock : 2 AI Stocks He Is Still Bullish On.
Sources: rte.ie, telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com, fool.com
Anthropic commits $100 billion to Amazon AWS
Anthropic commits $100 billion to Amazon AWS. Pentagon inks AI procurement deals with seven companies , leaves out Anthropic. Claude just took over the data center Grok needed most.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 leads the desk at 1.2% with $204K traded.
Lead stories
It not pro - black : Why black culture is an anti - white counterculture
It not pro - black : Why black culture is an anti - white counterculture.
Sources: theblaze.com
Vancouver is really starting to look like a FIFA World Cup host city | Daily Hive
Vancouver is really starting to look like a FIFA World Cup host city | Daily Hive. Madonna , Shakira , BTS to headline first FIFA World Cup half - time show. Vietnam U17 generation backed for long - term 2034 World Cup mission.
Sources: dailyhive.com, ,
B6
Lead market: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 leads the desk at 20.0% with $391K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : MicroStrategy Massive BTC Bet and IBIT Flows Keep Bulls Focused on $83K Retest. Goldman Sachs Dumps XRP and Solana , Cuts Ethereum Exposure by 70 %. Bitcoin at two - week low as crypto liquidations top US$800mil.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, finance.yahoo.com, freemalaysiatoday.com
B7
Lead market: Spurs leads the desk at 25.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
A Knicks miracle in Game 1 is more reason to believe they could win it all
A Knicks miracle in Game 1 is more reason to believe they could win it all. Spurs vs . Thunder Prediction , Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 2. Spurs vs . Thunder Game 2 Time , TV & Stream – May 20.
Sources: nytimes.com, si.com, buzztulsa.iheart.com
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz. Mavericks announce departure of head coach Jason Kidd. Manila Bulletin - San Antonio has one Filipino - American standout in its arsenal.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.7% with $403K traded.
Lead stories
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley Highlights Emission Reductions in County Operations
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley Highlights Emission Reductions in County Operations. How Residential Solar Panels Improve Climate Conditions. Summer 2026 : WUSA9 Weather Trends.
Sources: milwaukeecourier.com, emagazine.com, wusa9.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.8%
$7K
Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran War
Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran War. Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran War. Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran War.
Sources: wcvb.com, wxii12.com, wmur.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 at 23.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 29.0% | $474K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 5.0% | $451K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 4.8% | $285K
Top odds: December 31 | 28.0%
Popular events
8.7%
+0.1pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $633M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $592M0%
Iran imposes tolls as new Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control. Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz , announces new body to regulate and toll shipping. Iran offers insurance lifeline for ships crossing Hormuz.
Sources: jpost.com, moneycontrol.com, finance.yahoo.com
U . S . crude oil plunges below $100 on U . S .- Iran optimism ; three supertankers exit Hormuz
U . S . crude oil plunges below $100 on U . S .- Iran optimism ; three supertankers exit Hormuz. Oil Prices Ease as Trump Signals Quick End to Iran Conflict – 20 May 2026. Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, heraldgoa.in, oilprice.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 5.7% with $607K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 5.7% with $607K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 5.7% | $607K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 34.0% | $444K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 37.0% | $219K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 73.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 97.8% | $176K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 69.6% | $113K
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, siliconangle.com, digitaltrends.com
Anthropic turns to Elon Musk - owned SpaceX for AI compute as Claude demand surges
Anthropic turns to Elon Musk - owned SpaceX for AI compute as Claude demand surges. Want SpaceX Exposure ? These 3 AI Titans Have Previously Invested in What Should Be Wall Street Largest - Ever IPO. XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic.
Sources: indianexpress.com, fool.com, nextbigfuture.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic at 97.3% with $55K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of May? - Anthropic
Trading at 97.3% with $55K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 97.3% | $55K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume & odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 98.4% | $50K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 71.3% | $26K
Trump : If we had Jesus Christ come down and count the votes ... * WorldNetDaily * by Joe Kovacs
Trump : If we had Jesus Christ come down and count the votes ... * WorldNetDaily * by Joe Kovacs. When Did The New Covenant Begin ?. Church of Jesus Christ makes $25M donation to UNICEF to support children nutrition.
Sources: wnd.com, patheos.com, ksl.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31 at 1.2% with $204K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - May 31
Trading at 1.2% with $204K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: May 31 | 1.2% | $204K
Top odds: December 31 | 15.0%
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 92.0% | $140K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $16K
Top volume & odds: Jonathan Young | 1.5% | $13K
Popular events
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , May 20 , 2026 : Opened lower but moving higher. Bitcoin Fall Under $77 , 000 Triggers Spike In Social Media FUD. Crypto News : Pepeto Crosses $10 . 13 Million While Bitcoin Price Prediction Targets $150 , 000 as Senate Votes to En....
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, newsbtc.com, manilatimes.net
Bitcoin Struggles As Bond Yields Rise
Bitcoin Struggles As Bond Yields Rise. Bitfinex margin longs hit 2 . 5 - year high as bitcoin faces key resistance levels. How Much Bitcoin Do You Need To Retire By 2040 ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, 247wallst.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026 at 20.0% with $391K traded.
Top volume remains in MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026.
Lead event
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? - May 31, 2026
Trading at 20.0% with $391K in volume.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 20.0% | $391K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 82.0%
Popular events
Sources: yardbarker.com, kltv.com, mb.com.ph
2026 FIFA World Cup guide for Bay Area matches and watch parties – NBC Bay Area
2026 FIFA World Cup guide for Bay Area matches and watch parties – NBC Bay Area. You can predict the outcomes of the World Cup until 21 : 00 on 11 June in the Fresh Publishers World Cup 2026 pool. Bayern Manuel Neuer keeps mum on potential Germany return for World Cup.
Sources: nbcbayarea.com, freshplaza.com, arynews.tv
Event leaders
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 3.1% | $790K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 43.0%
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 52.0% | $235K
Top volume & odds: Colorado Avalanche | 40.5% | $231K
Popular events
Vol $2M
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Japan
Vol $456K
UK climate advisers urge setting maximum working temperature. The Zero - Emission Event : How Mobile Solar Platforms Are Powering Sustainable Gatherings. Bangladesh Garment Sector Renewable Energy | Garment sector far off renewable energy target.
PWHL goes the way of San Jose in adding a fourth expansion team and growing to 12 overall - Boston News , Weather , S....
Sources: whdh.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.7% with $403K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.7% | $403K
Popular events
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,115
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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