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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.7% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 4.8% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.9%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.3% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
Sweden Sentences Teen over Plot to Kill Iranian Researcher
Sweden Sentences Teen over Plot to Kill Iranian Researcher. US releases 20 Iranian sailors off Singapore. US sanctions Lebanese lawmakers , security officials over Hezbollah influence.
Sources: english.aawsat.com, news.az, clickorlando.com
Iowa Hinson leans into Trump alliance , pushes congressional trading ban in Senate campaign
Iowa Hinson leans into Trump alliance , pushes congressional trading ban in Senate campaign. Colombia 2026 Presidential Election – Analysis – Eurasia Review. U . S . sanctions Hezbollah finance network.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 4.8% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
UAE strategic plan to bypass Hormuz gains pace with new oil pipeline amid Iran conflict
UAE strategic plan to bypass Hormuz gains pace with new oil pipeline amid Iran conflict. Iran offers insurance lifeline for ships crossing Hormuz. Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, finance.yahoo.com, tribune.com.pk
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic leads the desk at 75.4% with $76K traded.
Lead stories
Elon Musk - led SpaceX files publicly for stock listing amid AI ambitions
Elon Musk - led SpaceX files publicly for stock listing amid AI ambitions.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
SpaceX IPO filing explained : The biggest IPO in history just filed : SpaceX IPO docs are out . Moonbase Alpha , Mars.... Business news live updates : SpaceX IPO filing lays bare losses and Musk control as it stakes future on AI. Mega IPOs on the way : SpaceX releases filing as OpenAI reportedly prepares for September listing.
Sources: ,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - June 30 leads the desk at 2.3% with $124K traded.
Lead stories
The Devil Wears Prada 2 North America Box Office : Can The Fashion Sequel Overtake Michael In This Year Domestic Rank.... TGMA is not the platform to judge fashion Nana Akua Addo. Cher at 80 : The Celebrity Style Evolution Behind Her Most Iconic Fashion Moments.
Sources: koimoi.com, businessghana.com, fashiontimes.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 leads the desk at 8.0% with $283K traded.
Lead stories
Strategy Quietly Confirms Shock Plan To Sell Bitcoin , Sparking Sudden Price Crash Panic
Strategy Quietly Confirms Shock Plan To Sell Bitcoin , Sparking Sudden Price Crash Panic. Prediction : Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Million -- Here the Timeline. Current price of Bitcoin for May 18 , 2026.
Sources: forbes.com, fool.com, fortune.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway leads the desk at 2.5% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
You can predict the outcomes of the World Cup until 21 : 00 on 11 June in the Fresh Publishers World Cup 2026 pool. Bayern Manuel Neuer keeps mum on potential Germany return for World Cup. The betting history of the World Cup : Biggest upsets , long - shot surprises , odds of winners.
Sources: freshplaza.com, arynews.tv, nypost.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.4% with $248K traded.
Lead stories
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future
How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future. OQ launches 2025 sustainability report , highlights 24 % rise in local value added. What Are the Best Sustainable Energy Options for Your Home ?.
Sources: techtimes.com, timesofoman.com, emagazine.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
98.7%
$3K
Sources: yahoo.com, eurasiareview.com, albawaba.com
Deal vs War : Trump - Netanyahu Clash on Iran in Tense Call
Deal vs War : Trump - Netanyahu Clash on Iran in Tense Call.
Sources: rediff.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? - Yes at 7.3% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?) | 7.3% | $5M
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 6.0% | $441K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 4.3% | $417K
Top odds: December 31 | 26.0%
Popular events
8.7%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $634M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $593M0%
Fed Barkin : Policy in good place to respond to ongoing shocks. Why Kevin Warsh Will Have to Defy Trump on Interest Rate Cuts. Fed minutes show more officials warned of rate - hike scenario.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, fool.com, moneycontrol.com
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels. Maths behind Hormuz toll : Is paying Iran for transit cheaper than blockade ?. IRGC Navy says more ships transiting Strait of Hormuz under its coordination.
Sources: aninews.in, aljazeera.com, globalsecurity.org
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 4.8% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 4.8% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 4.8% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 31.0% | $316K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $130 | 5.0% | $275K
Top odds: ↓ $95 | 74.0%
SpaceX Listed Grok Spicy Mode as a Risk in Its IPO Filing
SpaceX Listed Grok Spicy Mode as a Risk in Its IPO Filing. SpaceX IPO : xAI losses surge to $6 . 4 billion as Musk accelerates AI investments. SpaceX , Anthropic and OpenAI sprint to go public defines the AI boom big day.
Sources: wired.com, moneycontrol.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic at 75.4% with $76K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic
Trading at 75.4% with $76K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 75.4% | $76K
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 97.8% | $46K
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Top volume: Super Heavy booster explodes? | 69.0% | $41K
Top odds: By June 30 | 98.6%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 72.0% | $22K
ICE will be out there every day during World Cup , DHS chief says. ICE will be out there every day during World Cup , DHS chief says. ICE will be out there every day during World Cup , DHS chief says.
Sources: fox4news.com, fox2detroit.com, fox9.com
Church , designers expect new Temple Square to help visitors clearly identify one Latter - day Saint belief. Coeur dAlene approves utility work for new LDS temple. Do You Need to Consume Jesus Under Both Species to Receive All of Him ? ( The Patrick Madrid Show ).
Sources: yahoo.com, krem.com, relevantradio.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - June 30 at 2.3% with $124K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - June 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - June 30
Trading at 2.3% with $124K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: June 30 | 2.3% | $124K
Top odds: December 31 | 15.0%
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 93.0% | $73K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $66K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 3.1% | $8K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 16.5%
Popular events
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming ? Galaxy CEO Warns Not Enough Supply For Michael Saylor Buying Strategy.
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin Demand Weakens as BTC Price Risks Prolonged Consolidation
Bitcoin Demand Weakens as BTC Price Risks Prolonged Consolidation. Bitcoin Accumulation Weakens as BTC Realized Losses Hit $600M. Nakamoto Reverse Stock Split as it Faces Nasdaq Delisting.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 at 8.0% with $283K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 15.0% | $215K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 80.0%
Popular events
James Harden , Donovan Mitchell versus the red - hot Knicks : Who will win , and why ?. DraftKings Promo Code : Get $100 Bonus for Cavaliers - Knicks Game 1 , NBA Playoffs. Knicks vs . Cavaliers series odds , prediction : Jalen Brunson & co . have the edge in conference finals.
Sources: nytimes.com, covers.com, nypost.com
Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Semifinals Game 1
Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Semifinals Game 1. Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction , Odds , Best Prop Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 1. Stanley Cup playoffs : Hurricanes and Canadiens square off in the Eastern Conference finals.
Sources: 1049foxsports.iheart.com, si.com, abc11.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway at 2.5% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Canadiens | 85.0% | $754K
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 31.5% | $409K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 49.0%
Popular events
Asia - Pacific Power Grids Face Climate Risks Amid Renewable Energy Boom , Warns Ember Analyst Muyi Yang. NOAA Forecasts a Below - Average Hurricane Season. Extreme weather is a menace to homes . Here how you can protect your investment.
Sources: greentechlead.com, eos.org, edition.cnn.com
Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Semifinals Game 1
Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Semifinals Game 1. Canadiens vs . Hurricanes Prediction , Odds , Best Prop Bet for NHL Playoffs Game 1. Stanley Cup playoffs : Hurricanes and Canadiens square off in the Eastern Conference finals.
Sources: 1049foxsports.iheart.com, si.com, abc11.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.4% with $248K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.4% | $248K
Popular events
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes
Vol $248K
Vol $754K
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,115
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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