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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 6.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 15.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia - Janez Janša
98.9%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia - Janez Janša
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 leads the desk at 65.0% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
Tinubu Wins APC Presidential Primary in Barau Kano Ward
Tinubu Wins APC Presidential Primary in Barau Kano Ward. 2027 : Tinubu re - election non - negotiable , says Eradiri. Who are Andy Burnham key aides and allies ?.
Sources: punchng.com, thenationonlineng.net, aol.co.uk
What Iranian Leaders Are Saying or Threatening as Trump Administration Seeks War End – PJ Media
What Iranian Leaders Are Saying or Threatening as Trump Administration Seeks War End – PJ Media. Deal or no deal. President Trump : Please Do Not Leave the Iranian Regime in Place.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 15.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels. Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz. Iran vows enemy weapons shipments cannot cross Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: aninews.in, thehindubusinessline.com, tribune.com.pk
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T leads the desk at 13.0% with $129K traded.
Lead stories
Elon Musk Just Linked SpaceX , xAI , Tesla , and Nvidia Into 1 Trade . Here How to Position Your Portfolio .. Elon Musk Just Linked SpaceX , xAI , Tesla , and Nvidia Into 1 Trade . Here How to Position Your Portfolio .. Anthropic Profit Set to Double , Humbling OpenAI Empire.
Sources: fool.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 16.0% with $76K traded.
Lead stories
AMVCA celebrates Africa new creative culture
AMVCA celebrates Africa new creative culture. 10 festivals and conventions to keep on your summer radar. 10 festivals and conventions to keep on your summer radar.
Sources: punchng.com, dailynews.com, pasadenastarnews.com
5 Ways to make Sacred Heart consecration change your family
5 Ways to make Sacred Heart consecration change your family. [ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Disordered Curiosity. Mel Gibson Resurrection of the Christ Unveils First Look at Jesus as It Pushes Release Date.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 leads the desk at 6.9% with $366K traded.
Lead stories
Current price of Bitcoin for May 18 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for May 18 , 2026. Strategy Stock : Buy , Sell , or Hold ? | The Motley Fool. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Wednesday , May 20 , 2026 : Opened lower but moving higher.
Sources: fortune.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake
Alberta Pension Powerhouse Pivots to Bitcoin : AIMCo Discloses Major MicroStrategy Stake. Grok AI is Bullish on MicroStrategy ( MSTR ) Despite Bitcoin Volatility. Bitcoin Supply Shock Incoming ? Galaxy CEO Warns Not Enough Supply For Michael Saylor Buying Strategy.
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA leads the desk at 1.1% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?. May 22 World Cup update : Trophy tour , Richards hurt , England squad. The betting history of the World Cup : Biggest upsets , long - shot surprises , odds of winners.
Sources: jagranjosh.com, fox5ny.com, nypost.com
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a James Harden problem . Can they solve it ?
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a James Harden problem . Can they solve it ?. James Harden , Donovan Mitchell versus the red - hot Knicks : Who will win , and why ?. New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers LIVE Score Updates in NBA Playoffs Game | 05 / 21 / 2026.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.3% with $260K traded.
Lead stories
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk.
Sources: euronews.com
Apple Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality : A Deep Dive into the 2025 Environmental Progress Report
Apple Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality : A Deep Dive into the 2025 Environmental Progress Report. India Renewable Energy Revolution : Leading sustainable future. El Niño could shape South - Central Pa . summer weather.
Sources: greentechlead.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$13K
Tinubu wins Kabo Ward APC primary vote in Kano - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian N.... APC primary : Tinubu sweeps Kabo ward as Barau hails exercise. Who are Andy Burnham key aides and allies ? | Andy Burnham.
Sources: nigerianeye.com, thenationonlineng.net, theguardian.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31 at 65.0% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 31.
Event leaders
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 3.0% | $959K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 3.0% | $812K
Top odds: December 31 | 26.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $736K
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 70.0% | $495K
Top odds: June 30 | 82.0%
Popular events
Vol $812K
8.8%
—
$12M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $637M
Presidential election
Event volume $596M
Strait of Hormuz toll revenue talks : Iran , Oman discuss proposal despite US warning. Against US warning : Iran , Oman negotiate toll system for Strait of Hormuz. Against US warning : Iran , Oman negotiate toll system for Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: thenews.com.pk, jpost.com, jpost.com
Warsh takes the Fed helm as inflation climbs , consumer sentiment dives
Warsh takes the Fed helm as inflation climbs , consumer sentiment dives. Trump tells Warsh to do own thing as Fed chair sworn in. Warsh takes the Fed helm as inflation climbs , consumer sentiment dives.
Sources: ksl.com, financialpost.com, businesstimes.com.sg
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 15.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 15.0% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 15.0% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 62.0% | $586K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $120 | 5.4% | $238K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 77.0%
Pentagon inks AI procurement deals with seven companies , leaves out Anthropic. Claude just took over the data center Grok needed most. Anthropic turns to Elon Musk - owned SpaceX for AI compute as Claude demand surges.
Sources: siliconangle.com, digitaltrends.com, indianexpress.com
XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic
XAI Will Breakeven by Renting AI Data Center to Anthropic. Grok Told Delusional User Suicide Was Readines as New AI Safety Tests Reveal Which Chatbots Fuel Psychosis and Which.... The 1 Thing Tech Investors Arent Ready For -- but OpenAI Just Proved.
Sources: nextbigfuture.com, ibtimes.co.uk, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T at 13.0% with $129K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 74.5% | $28K
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.0% | $28K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 73.0% | $11K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume: $SEX | 1.4% | $9K
Top odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 97.2%
Sources: aleteia.org, freerepublic.com, freerepublic.com
Neymar Out of Grêmio Vs Santos on May 23
Neymar Out of Grêmio Vs Santos on May 23. Neymar suffers fresh injury setback before World Cup. Did FIFA big experiment make the World Cup too big for its own good ? – Chicago Tribune.
Sources: el-balad.com, haitisun.com, chicagotribune.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 16.0% with $76K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 16.0% with $76K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 16.0% | $76K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $38K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 88.0% | $18K
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 4.1% | $9K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 19.8%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 4 | 4.9% | $6K
Top odds: 2 | 62.0%
Sources: econotimes.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : MicroStrategy Massive BTC Bet and IBIT Flows Keep Bulls Focused on $83K Retest. This Bitcoin Momentum Signal Preceded Last October Crash Another Downturn Incoming ?. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : IBIT Stays Neutral as BTC Eyes $79 . 2K CME Gap After $75K Retest.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, newsbtc.com, bravenewcoin.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 at 6.9% with $366K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 13.0% | $138K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 82.0%
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 50.0% | $16K
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
Top volume: June 30, 2026 | 1.3% | $7K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 37.0%
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, vavel.com
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz
The NBA Playoffs scoring leader quiz. Mavericks announce departure of head coach Jason Kidd. Shai Gilgeous - Alexander Wins Second Consecutive MVP.
Sources: yardbarker.com, kltv.com, blazersedge.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA at 1.1% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Knicks | 68.0% | $999K
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 15.0% | $562K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 65.0%
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 89.0% | $128K
Popular events
Vol $999K
Hong Kong Astronaut Operates Greenhouse Gas Observatory on Tiangong Space Station
Hong Kong Astronaut Operates Greenhouse Gas Observatory on Tiangong Space Station. ADPD warns climate backtracking against everyone interests. Tropics is quiet as Florida braces for start of 2026 hurricane season.
Sources: chinatechnews.com, independent.com.mt, yahoo.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.3% with $260K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.3% | $260K
Popular events
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes
Vol $260K
Vol $475K
+$77,609
+$23,195
+$9,899
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
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#3
Awaiting data
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#4
Awaiting data
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#5
Awaiting data
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