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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" Event volume totals $23M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?)" at 7.0% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?)" at 2.7% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia - Janez Janša
98.9%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Slovenia - Janez Janša
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 26 leads the desk at 10.0% with $6M traded.
Lead stories
US Iran news live : Tehran agrees to uranium move as peace framework nears finish line
US Iran news live : Tehran agrees to uranium move as peace framework nears finish line.
Sources: moneycontrol.com
Iran war : Rubio says significant progres made in talks as details of potential deal emerge - follow live. US official says Washington , Tehran reach preliminary deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz : Reports. Iran Nuclear Deal : Iran agrees to give up enriched uranium as deal with Donald Trump largely negotiated : Report.
Sources: bbc.com,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes leads the desk at 2.7% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels
Iran defines boundaries of Strait of Hormuz , mandates coordination and permit for vessels. Iran announces new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz. Iran announces launch of new regulatory body to manage Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: aninews.in, thehindubusinessline.com, timesofoman.com
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3.2T leads the desk at 8.0% with $59K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceX IPO charts reveal a company spending like an AI giant : Chart of the Day
SpaceX IPO charts reveal a company spending like an AI giant : Chart of the Day. Tech stocks today : Investors stoke AI trade , even as Nvidia stock faces another downbeat earnings reaction. Inside the $40 Billion Google Deal Fueling Anthropic 2026 IPO.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, geeky-gadgets.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 16.0% with $130K traded.
Lead stories
Athiradi Full Movie Collection : Athiradi box office collections day 10 : Tovino Thomas film shows impressive weekend.... The Night of the Stars , the Cannes Film Festival Closes. Mike Myers , 63 - Actor | AceShowbiz.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, gazetaexpress.com, aceshowbiz.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 leads the desk at 4.4% with $372K traded.
Lead stories
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price. Bitcoin Price Could Fall To $72 . 5K Before Next Rebound Here Why. Bitcoin LTH Supply Surge Does Not Reflect Real Demand Here Why.
Sources: forbes.com, newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA leads the desk at 1.2% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?
Which City Hosted the 1998 World Cup Final ?. Brazil Must Use World Cup Pressure as Motivation , Says Star. 2026 FIFA World Cup guide for Bay Area matches and watch parties – NBC Bay Area.
Sources: jagranjosh.com, punchng.com, nbcbayarea.com
Charles Barkley fed up with Victor Wembanyama narrative in Thunder vs . Spurs series
Charles Barkley fed up with Victor Wembanyama narrative in Thunder vs . Spurs series. Thunder vs . Spurs Game 4 prediction , odds : OKC depth continuing to outweigh Spurs. Open Thread : Sean Elliott surprises H - E - B shoppers with free groceries.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.3% with $126K traded.
Lead stories
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk
Is Hantavirus a threat to Europe ? Climate change and habitat destruction are increasing the risk.
Sources: euronews.com
Building a resilient business in a changing climate - BusinessWorld Online
Building a resilient business in a changing climate - BusinessWorld Online. Solar energy boosts sustainability in agriculture and livestock sector. Community centre in Oxfordshire gets green solar panel boost.
Sources: bworldonline.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
#1 Awaiting data
n/a
#2 Awaiting data
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#3 Awaiting data
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Kalshi via Jupiter
+$77,609
98.7%
$2K
Iran Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65 % As U . S . Naval Blockade Bites
Iran Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65 % As U . S . Naval Blockade Bites. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan.
Sources: zerohedge.com, arynews.tv, arynews.tv
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 26 at 10.0% with $6M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - May 26.
Event leaders
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 11.7% | $806K
Top odds: December 31 | 45.0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Top volume: May 31 | 1.8% | $681K
Top odds: December 31 | 26.0%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume & odds: JD Vance | 19.0% | $677K
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Top volume: May 31 | 32.0% | $533K
Top odds: June 30 | 70.0%
Popular events
8.8%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $638M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $599M+1%
UAE strategic plan to bypass Hormuz gains pace with new oil pipeline amid Iran conflict. Iran imposes tolls as new Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control. Iran tightens grip on Strait of Hormuz , announces new body to regulate and toll shipping.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, jpost.com, moneycontrol.com
Crypto Traders Nailed April $110 Oil Surge Prediction : Here The Price They Expect It To Hit In May Af. Is W & T Offshore ( WTI ) One of the Best Performing NYSE Stocks So Far in 2026 ?. Dont Expect Oil Prices to Drop Until 2027 . Here Are 2 Stocks to Buy for This Exact Scenario ..
Sources: benzinga.com, insidermonkey.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes at 2.7% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? - Yes
Trading at 2.7% with $2M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?) | 2.7% | $2M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 47.0% | $601K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $130 | 1.9% | $269K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 80.0%
Top volume & odds: No change | 97.4% | $140K
OpenAI Andrej Karpathy Joins Anthropic To Boost Claude Research. OpenAI to provide latest cybersecurity AI model to Japanese firms | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking News , Japan News an.... Grok falls flat in Washington , undercutting SpaceX AI growth story.
Sources: finanznachrichten.de, asahi.com, zawya.com
Sam Altman under scrutiny as OpenAI heads for IPO
Sam Altman under scrutiny as OpenAI heads for IPO. He Knows the Flaws Because He Knows the Man : Why Elon Musk OpenAI Attack Is Really About xAI. Top AI Coins Akash Network , FET , Venice Token Jumps Ahead of OpenAI IPO.
Sources: irishtimes.com, 247wallst.com, banklesstimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3.2T at 8.0% with $59K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3.2T.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.3% | $18K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 74.0% | $18K
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 74.6% | $16K
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Top volume & odds: Other (incl $SPCX) | 97.0% | $16K
Popular events
Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music. What is the big deal about Pentecost ?. Gunman who believed he was Jesus Christ opened fire on White House checkpoint , neutralized by Secret Service ( named....
Sources: air1.com, christianpost.com, freerepublic.com
Neymar suffers fresh injury setback before World Cup
Neymar suffers fresh injury setback before World Cup. Cried for several hours , says Neymar after Brazil World Cup squad inclusion. NEYMAR PICKED FOR BRAZIL WORLD CUP SQUAD | The Shillong Times.
Sources: prokerala.com, timesofoman.com, theshillongtimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 16.0% with $130K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 16.0% with $130K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 16.0% | $130K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $29K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 89.0% | $12K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 19.0% | $7K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 63.0%
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
Top volume: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 2.3% | $6K
Top odds: Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026? | 24.0%
Weekend Round - Up : Bitcoin Big Players , XRP ETFs , SpaceX BTC Holdings And More. The 2022 Bitcoin Pattern Is Back and the Second Drop Was Worse Than the First. Goldman Sachs Dumps XRP and Solana , Cuts Ethereum Exposure by 70 %.
Sources: benzinga.com, 247wallst.com, finance.yahoo.com
Michael Saylor reveals most interesting story in Bitcoin right now
Michael Saylor reveals most interesting story in Bitcoin right now. Could Buying XRP Today Set You Up for Life ?. Harvard University Sold Some Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q1 . Should You ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000 at 4.4% with $372K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in May? - ↑ 85,000.
Event leaders
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Top volume: May 31, 2026 | 12.0% | $115K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 79.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit May 18-24?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 80,000 | 1.3% | $40K
Printr public sale total commitments?
Top volume & odds: >$3M | 1.2% | $15K
Popular events
Sources: thebiglead.com, nypost.com, poundingtherock.com
Knicks just did something the NBA hasnt seen since the Warriors dynasty
Knicks just did something the NBA hasnt seen since the Warriors dynasty. The Chicago Bulls ended the 2025 - 26 season with two centers and big questions. Celebrating 12 Famous Male Siblings On National Brothers Day.
Sources: dailyknicks.com, pippenainteasy.com, madamenoire.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA at 1.2% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA.
Event leaders
NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Champion
Top volume: Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.5% | $587K
Top odds: New York Knicks | 97.8%
Top volume: San Antonio Spurs | 17.0% | $269K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 60.0%
Top volume & odds: Avalanche | 93.0% | $154K
Popular events
PWHL goes the way of San Jose in adding a fourth expansion team and growing to 12 overall - Boston News , Weather , S....
Sources: whdh.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.3% with $126K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.3% | $126K
Popular events
+$23,195
+$9,899
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
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#2
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#4
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#5
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