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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $1B across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Gavin Newsom" at 25.2%, with top volume on "Hunter Biden" at 1.6% and $671K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 15.0% and $246K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Wes Moore
$0
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.5%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 6.6% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Taiwan says Chinese coast guard , research ships near key S . China Sea islands
Taiwan says Chinese coast guard , research ships near key S . China Sea islands. Taiwan says Chinese coast guard , research ships near key South China Sea islands. Trump keeps the door open to a call with Taiwan president even though China has warned against it.
Sources: thehindu.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, seattletimes.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 15.0% with $246K traded.
Lead stories
Iran conflict : Why more tankers are going dark in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran conflict : Why more tankers are going dark in the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz shutdown only benefits US energy firms , says Russia Rosneft chief Sechin. Iran Seizes US - Linked Vessel in Strait of Hormuz , Iran Media Report.
Sources: indianexpress.com, thenews.com.pk, khaama.com
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T leads the desk at 7.0% with $95K traded.
Lead stories
Binance Expands Pre - IPO Perpetuals with OpenAI Listing Following Strong Early Market Response
Binance Expands Pre - IPO Perpetuals with OpenAI Listing Following Strong Early Market Response. SpaceX IPO 2026 : US Stock Market IPO in 2026 : SpaceX , Anthropic , OpenAI , Inspire Brands , Discord . Check filing.... Understanding IPO Investing For Retail Investors - Apple ( NASDAQ : AAPL ), NVIDIA ( NASDAQ : NVDA ).
Sources: prnewswire.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, benzinga.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 15.0% with $280K traded.
Lead stories
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters
What Is Cannes Film Festival ? Date , History , Awards And Why It Matters. AMVCA celebrates Africa new creative culture. AMVCA 2026 Cultural Night : Stars celebrate African heritage.
Sources: newsx.com, punchng.com, theeagleonline.com.ng
Bay Area World Cup teams , from Algeria to Turkey
Bay Area World Cup teams , from Algeria to Turkey. Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets. Here what inside the new McDonald World Cup meals.
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 8.1% with $47K traded.
Lead stories
Satoshi - era BTC at center of $285 billion bitcoin lawsuit moves after 14 years
Satoshi - era BTC at center of $285 billion bitcoin lawsuit moves after 14 years.
Sources: coindesk.com
Current price of Ethereum for May 22 , 2026
Current price of Ethereum for May 22 , 2026. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , June 2 , 2026 : Bitcoin slides below $70 , 000. Current price of Ethereum for June 1 , 2026.
Sources: fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com,
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco leads the desk at 1.6% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history
The 50 greatest players in World Cup history. Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets. Where Person Fit Bet Online for World Cup 26 ? - Latest News In Nigeria , Nigeria News Today , Your Online Nigerian N....
Sources: aol.co.uk, rotowire.com, nigerianeye.com
Knicks storm through San Antonio to take Game 2 , head home with NBA Finals lead
Knicks storm through San Antonio to take Game 2 , head home with NBA Finals lead. A timeline of Knick misery and hope between 1999 and 2026 NBA Finals. Victor Wembanyama discovering road to glory is paved with hard lessons , heartbreaks.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.9% with $55K traded.
Lead stories
Climate action cannot wait | The Peninsula Qatar
Climate action cannot wait | The Peninsula Qatar. World Environment Day 2026 : UN Urges Faster Climate Action as Global Temperatures Near Record Highs. Global Environmental Shifts and the Future of Sustainable Living.
Sources: thepeninsulaqatar.com, greentechlead.com, yourthurrock.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
US eyes Iranian assets for Gulf allie reconstruction , source says.
Sources: internazionale.it
Graham Platner Controversy Deepens Democratic Unease Before Maine Senate Primary
Graham Platner Controversy Deepens Democratic Unease Before Maine Senate Primary. Whole Hog Politics : Independent Variable in Nebraska , Montana Worries GOP. Bernie Sanders Backs Graham Platner After Toxic Relationship Allegations.
Sources: nytimes.com, aei.org, forbes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes at 6.6% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?) | 6.6% | $1M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Top volume: June 15 | 7.0% | $984K
Top odds: December 31 | 68.0%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Hunter Biden | 1.6% | $671K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 25.2%
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume: Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 32.6% | $527K
Top odds: Keiko Fujimori | 67.0%
Popular events
7.8%
+0.1pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $652M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $618M0%
Russia Sechin says U . S . companies benefit from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Market Flying Blind as Dark Tanker Traffic Surges in Hormuz. U . S . military strikes Iranian radar sites.
Sources: cnbc.com, oilprice.com, sana.sy
U . S . mortgage rates are staying high and the Fed can do very little about it
U . S . mortgage rates are staying high and the Fed can do very little about it. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Trump Demand That Could Impact Social Security. Kevin Warsh job just got a lot more complicated.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, 247wallst.com, livemint.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 15.0% with $246K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 15.0% with $246K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 15.0% | $246K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?) | 1.4% | $215K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 81.0% | $148K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 32.0% | $98K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 49.0% | $60K
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic
Musk xAI Unveils First Coding Agent in Bid to Rival Anthropic. Claude just took over the data center Grok needed most. Anthropic tops OpenAI as most valuable AI start - up.
Sources: bloomberg.com, digitaltrends.com, straitstimes.com
Anthropic Code with Claude showed off coding future whether you like it or not
Anthropic Code with Claude showed off coding future whether you like it or not. How to try Claude Opus 4 . 8 , the honest Anthropic AI. Claude Lemieux Death Certificate Released , Body Moved To North Carolina For Burial.
Sources: technologyreview.com, mashable.com, tmz.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T at 7.0% with $95K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$3T.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume: Google | 12.0% | $34K
Top odds: Anthropic | 85.1%
Top volume & odds: 2.0T-2.5T | 46.0% | $17K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Pizza Hut | 84.0% | $3K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 88.0%
Popular events
Sources: eastbaytimes.com, rotowire.com, thetab.com
INNER CIRCLE : Love Is … | Keith Giles
INNER CIRCLE : Love Is … | Keith Giles. Philip Anthony Mitchell church releases viral worship anthem. Healing conference explores abundant life through union with Christ.
Sources: patheos.com, christianpost.com, christiantoday.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 15.0% with $280K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 15.0% with $280K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 15.0% | $280K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 90.0% | $22K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $21K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 18.0% | $6K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 57.0%
Current price of Bitcoin for June 1 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for June 1 , 2026. 1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 600 %, According to Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , June 5 , 2026 : Prices continue their descent.
Sources: fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 8.1% with $47K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 8.1% | $47K
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 1,500 | 95.1% | $45K
What price will Bitcoin hit June 1-7?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 58,000 | 18.2% | $39K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 78.0% | $6K
Top odds: $50M | 94.6%
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak. History between Knicks and Spurs ahead of NBA Finals matchup – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth. History between Knicks and Spurs ahead of NBA Finals matchup – NBC4 Washington.
Sources: nytimes.com, nbcdfw.com, nbcwashington.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco at 1.6% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Morocco.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: New York Knicks | 78.2% | $1M
Top volume & odds: Hurricanes | 52.0% | $253K
Top volume: Vegas Golden Knights | 45.2% | $74K
Top odds: Carolina Hurricanes | 55.0%
Popular events
Telephone town hall connects families with measles experts amid outbreak - SteinbachOnline . com - Local news , Weath....
Sources: steinbachonline.com
NHL Stanley Cup Finals : Watch Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights on Channel 2
NHL Stanley Cup Finals : Watch Carolina Hurricanes vs Vegas Golden Knights on Channel 2. Golden Knights vs . Hurricanes Prediction & Picks - Stanley Cup Final Game 2. Radiocarbon Dating Confirms Teutonic Knights Built This Transylvania Fortress in the 13th Century.
Sources: wsbtv.com, 1049foxsports.iheart.com, ancient-origins.net
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.9% with $55K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.9% | $55K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 83.0% | $817
Popular events
Vol $253K
+$43,128
+$8,016
+$6,715
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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