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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" Event volume totals $48M across outcomes, with $3M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "December 31" at 69.0%, with top volume on "June 15" at 9.0% and $2M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 12.0% and $657K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia
$3M
Highest implied
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.6%
Top priced
Maine Democratic Senate Primary Winner - Graham Platner
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 leads the desk at 9.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
John Brittas to take part in INDIA bloc meeting , CPI ( M ) conveys concern over systematic campaign by Congress duri.... INDIA Bloc Meeting In Delhi To See Participation Of 23 Parties , Says Congress Leader Jairam Ramesh. Iran operation is not a new war : Trump.
Sources: news.webindia123.com, freepressjournal.in, morungexpress.com
Peruvians head to polls for presidential runoff
Peruvians head to polls for presidential runoff. Peru votes for new president ninth time in 10 years. Peru votes for new president for ninth time in 10 years.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 12.0% with $657K traded.
Lead stories
Two - thirds of tankers going dark to pass through Strait of Hormuz : analysts
Two - thirds of tankers going dark to pass through Strait of Hormuz : analysts. 300 ships signed up for safe passage thru Strait of Hormuz : Iran. US escorts about 70 ships through Strait of Hormuz in May media.
Sources: nypost.com, nypost.com, azertag.az
US forces down 2 Iranian drones threatening traffic in Strait of Hormuz
US forces down 2 Iranian drones threatening traffic in Strait of Hormuz. US led over 100 vessels via Strait of Hormuz in May NYT. US led over 100 vessels via Strait of Hormuz in May NYT.
B4
Lead market: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T leads the desk at 78.0% with $50K traded.
Lead stories
AI companies are barreling toward huge Wall Street debuts . A look at the biggest players
AI companies are barreling toward huge Wall Street debuts . A look at the biggest players. Did Anthropic and Google Just Give Investors 2 . 2 Billion Reasons to Buy the SpaceX IPO ?. Did Anthropic and Google Just Give Investors 2 . 2 Billion Reasons to Buy the SpaceX IPO ?.
Sources: asiaone.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 14.0% with $267K traded.
Lead stories
Drishyam 3 Box Office Collection Day 17 : Mohanlal Starrer Jumps 62 . 5 Percent As Overseas Collections Cross Rs 111.... Peddi Box Office Collection Day 3 : Ram Charan Blockbuster Rushes Towards Rs 200 Crore Milestone. Tribeca Film Festival 2026 : Party and Events Guide.
Sources: newsx.com, newsx.com, variety.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit June 1-7? - ↓ 58,000 leads the desk at 1.4% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed
Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed. Should You Buy Bitcoin While It Under $100 , 000 ?. Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price.
Sources: forbes.com, fool.com, forbes.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia leads the desk at 1.9% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Vancouver is really starting to look like a FIFA World Cup host city | Daily Hive
Vancouver is really starting to look like a FIFA World Cup host city | Daily Hive. You could get paid $50K to watch every World Cup game . Here how to apply. Messi : Neymar one of best , has to be at World Cup.
Sources: dailyhive.com, cbs8.com, china.org.cn
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak
2026 NBA Finals odds : Spurs open as clear favorites despite Knick win streak. Watch Air Corgi make Knicks - Spurs NBA Finals prediction. Spurs Falter Late Again , Fall To Knicks 105 - 104 In Game Two Of NBA Finals | Ticket 760.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 5.8% with $140K traded.
Lead stories
Climate action cannot wait | The Peninsula Qatar
Climate action cannot wait | The Peninsula Qatar. How Technology Is Helping Fight Climate Change and Build a Sustainable Future. OQ launches 2025 sustainability report , highlights 24 % rise in local value added.
Sources: thepeninsulaqatar.com, techtimes.com, timesofoman.com
Climate Change Weekly # 581 It Hurricane Season , and Nothing Is New
Climate Change Weekly # 581 It Hurricane Season , and Nothing Is New. World Environment Day 2026 : UN Urges Faster Climate Action as Global Temperatures Near Record Highs. What Are the Best Sustainable Energy Options for Your Home ?.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
#1 Awaiting data
n/a
#2 Awaiting data
n/a
#3 Awaiting data
n/a
Kalshi via Jupiter
+$41,491
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
98.4%
$23K
Iran Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65 % As U . S . Naval Blockade Bites
Iran Floating Oil Stockpile Jumps 65 % As U . S . Naval Blockade Bites. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan. Iranian Rial Rate Today in Pakistan.
Sources: zerohedge.com, arynews.tv, arynews.tv
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15 at 9.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 15.
Event leaders
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Top volume & odds: Keiko Fujimori | 80.0% | $948K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?) | 1.9% | $561K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Wes Moore | 1.3% | $310K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 25.2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $261K
Popular events
7.8%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $652M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $619M0%
Sources: prokerala.com, azertag.az, globalsecurity.org
US shoots down two Iranian drones threatening intl shipping in Strait of Hormuz
US shoots down two Iranian drones threatening intl shipping in Strait of Hormuz. US Says It Shot Down Two Iranian Drones Launched By Iran At Strait Of Hormuz. Iran War Live News Updates : US says it shot down two Iranian drones threatening Hormuz shipping.
Sources: jpost.com, theyeshivaworld.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 12.0% with $657K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 12.0% with $657K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 12.0% | $657K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?) | 1.3% | $320K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 33.0% | $149K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of June? | 91.0% | $50K
Tech stocks today : Nvidia stock drops 6 % in ugly day for chip stocks. The Anthropic IPO Could Make These 5 AI Stocks Unexpected Winners. SpaceX vs Anthropic : Here Which Mega - IPO Im More Likely to Buy.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
SpaceX , Anthropic , and OpenAI Wont Be Added to the S & P 500 in 2026 . Here What Investors Can Do About It ..
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T at 78.0% with $50K traded.
Top volume remains in SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ? - >$1.8T.
Event leaders
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Anthropic | 10.0% | $24K
Top odds: Cursor | 90.0%
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 85.6% | $18K
Popular events
Vancouver is really starting to look like a FIFA World Cup host city | Daily Hive. Messi : Neymar one of best , has to be at World Cup. Madonna , Shakira , BTS to headline first FIFA World Cup half - time show.
Sources: dailyhive.com, china.org.cn, philstar.com
Catholic Caucus : Daily Mass Readings 7 - June - 2026
Catholic Caucus : Daily Mass Readings 7 - June - 2026. Utah delegation defends LDS Church as Christian after new Pentagon classification. Hardship : Remain steadfast in Christ , things will get better - Cleric urges Nigerians.
Sources: freerepublic.com, eastidahonews.com, dailypost.ng
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 14.0% with $267K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 14.0% with $267K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 14.0% | $267K
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 90.0% | $16K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $12K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 30.0% | $8K
Top odds: 2 | 61.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 56.0% | $3K
Ethereum Exchange Inflows Climb To Four Month High - What This Means For Price. Ethereum Breakdown Warning : This Key Level Could Trigger More Downtrend. Tom Lee BitMine Prices 9 . 5 % Preferred Shares to Fund Ethereum Strategy.
Sources: newsbtc.com, newsbtc.com, finance.yahoo.com
Should You Buy Bitcoin While It Under $100 , 000 ?
Should You Buy Bitcoin While It Under $100 , 000 ?. Bitcoin BTC USD price prediction by Cathie Wood : BTC USD price forecast : Why Cathie Wood predicts Bitcoin could rea.... BlackRock Sells $1B Bitcoin as BTC ETFs Hit 6 Day Losing Streak What Is Happening ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit June 1-7? - ↓ 58,000 at 1.4% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit June 1-7? - ↓ 58,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit June 1-7?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 58,000 | 1.4% | $69K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $200M | 78.0% | $15K
Top odds: $50M | 94.7%
Popular events
Sources: nytimes.com, thebiglead.com, ticket760.iheart.com
Steph Curry : NBA star signs shoe deal with Chinese brand Li - Ning
Steph Curry : NBA star signs shoe deal with Chinese brand Li - Ning. Jalen Brunson takes over as Knicks surge past Spurs in Game 1 of NBA Finals. NBA champion and Bulls broadcaster Stacey King dies at 59.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com, wibw.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia at 1.9% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia.
Event leaders
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Top volume & odds: San Francisco Giants | 62.0% | $117K
Top volume: Carolina Hurricanes | 37.0% | $88K
Top odds: Vegas Golden Knights | 63.0%
Popular events
Vol $751K
Sources: wattsupwiththat.com, greentechlead.com, emagazine.com
Golden Knights and Hurricanes both bring a hyper - defensive focus into the Stanley Cup Final
Golden Knights and Hurricanes both bring a hyper - defensive focus into the Stanley Cup Final. Six Reasons to Root for the Carolina Hurricanes in the Stanley Cup Final. Canada lengthy Stanley Cup drought continues as Habs fall to Hurricanes – Brandon Sun.
Sources: tsn.ca, gardenandgun.com, brandonsun.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 5.8% with $140K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 5.8% | $140K
Popular events
+$7,556
+$6,715
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
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#2
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#3
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#4
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#5
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