Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "4" at 54.4%, with top volume on "6" at 4.3% and $789 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?)" at 24.0% and $981K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia
$4M
Highest implied
Where will Trump and Putin meet next? - No meeting by June 30
98.6%
Top priced
Where will Trump and Putin meet next? - No meeting by June 30
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30 leads the desk at 8.9% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Where Israel stands nearly three years after Oct . 7 attack
Where Israel stands nearly three years after Oct . 7 attack. Where Israel stands nearly three years after Oct . 7 attack. Israeli Air Force Chief Says Major Attack on Iran Was Called Off Last Week.
Sources: jpost.com, jpost.com, news.antiwar.com
After Trump Iran deal announcement , US Democrats demand transparency
After Trump Iran deal announcement , US Democrats demand transparency. After Trump Iran deal announcement , US Democrats demand transparency. Quaker Lobby Welcomes Step toward Peace between U . S . and Iran | Friends Committee On National Legislation.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes leads the desk at 24.0% with $981K traded.
Lead stories
One hell of a problem for India : Taiwan crisis will be bigger than Hormuz
One hell of a problem for India : Taiwan crisis will be bigger than Hormuz. How will the Strait of Hormuz be demined ? Trump to address strategy at G7 summit. Tanker Companies Say Hormuz Traffic Will Take Week to Return to Normal.
Sources: businesstoday.in, fox9.com, breitbart.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic leads the desk at 94.8% with $34K traded.
Lead stories
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt. Just days after its IPO , SpaceX buys AI coding startup Cursor : 3 biggest things that made Elon Musk spending $60 bi.... Why SpaceX is spending $60 billion to acquire AI coding startup Cursor.
Sources: ewn.co.za, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, indianexpress.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 5.3% with $98K traded.
Lead stories
How to Watch the Las Culturistas Culture Awards 2026 – Date , Time , Hosts , Presenters , Nominees & Where to Stream....
Sources: justjared.com
Vancouver City Hall landmark exterior gets FIFA World Cup flair | Daily Hive
Vancouver City Hall landmark exterior gets FIFA World Cup flair | Daily Hive. Buy Monopoly FIFA World Cup Edition Panini Prizm Cards , Deal Game. BLACKPINK Lisa 2026 FIFA World Cup song receives flak over problematic lyrics ; netizens say , She so embarrassing.
Sources: ,
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000 leads the desk at 5.0% with $110K traded.
Lead stories
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price
Billionaire Mark Cuban Suddenly Flips On Bitcoin As Massive Crash Fear Hits Price. Bloodbath Bitcoin Price Crash Warning Issued As BlackRock Sell - Off Revealed. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , May 25 , 2026 : Down from last week , but rising this morning.
Sources: forbes.com, forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia leads the desk at 1.5% with $4M traded.
Lead stories
Best apps to watch FIFA World Cup 2026 live on your mobile phone free in India
Best apps to watch FIFA World Cup 2026 live on your mobile phone free in India. FIFA World Cup 2026 merchandise : Bring the hype home with our jersey , gear and merch guide. FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 : Did you know Michael Jackson Earth Song was featured on the 2006 album Voices From The FIFA Wor....
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, abc11.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 4.1% with $44K traded.
Lead stories
Standard Chartered Sustainability Report 2025 : $1 . 07 bn Sustainable Finance Income , $157 bn Mobilised , Net Zero.... Potential Tropical Cyclone One may become T . S . Arthur in the Gulf. Ohio Has Blocked a Lot of Wind and Solar . Its Residents Pay the Price ..
Sources: greentechlead.com, wxii12.com, clevescene.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in July?
98.4%
$72K
Iranian negotiators recruit psychologists believing Trump is impaired : journalist
Iranian negotiators recruit psychologists believing Trump is impaired : journalist. Trump Says Iranian Officials Contacted Him Seeking End to U . S . Strikes. Iran says Trump claim that Iranian officials asked him to stop bombing is false.
Sources: rawstory.com, breitbart.com, aa.com.tr
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30 at 8.9% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? - June 30.
Event leaders
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?) | 48.0% | $780K
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Top volume & odds: Troop Withdrawal | 71.0% | $475K
9.1%
-0.2pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $660M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $631M0%
US Fed meeting outcome today : 5 things investors should watch as policymakers weigh inflation risks. The Fed Maintains Rates : What It Means for Your Money. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at Kevin Warsh first meeting as chair.
Fed rate cut unlikely ; would be like throwing oil on the fire of inflation , expert says
Fed rate cut unlikely ; would be like throwing oil on the fire of inflation , expert says. Fed rate cut unlikely ; would be like throwing oil on the fire of inflation , expert says. Fed rate cut unlikely ; would be like throwing oil on the fire of inflation , expert says.
Sources: wset.com, wcyb.com, turnto10.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes at 24.0% with $981K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? - Yes
Trading at 24.0% with $981K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?) | 24.0% | $981K
Top volume & odds: No change | 81.0% | $450K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 52.0% | $171K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 55.0% | $140K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 91.0% | $135K
Popular events
Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt. Elon Musk AI tool Grok was used in strikes against Iran : US govt. US says Grok was used in strikes against Iran.
Sources: arynews.tv, geo.tv, pakistantoday.com.pk
OpenAI Just Took the First Step Toward Its IPO . Here How to Invest in the Stock Now .
OpenAI Just Took the First Step Toward Its IPO . Here How to Invest in the Stock Now .. Buy the SpaceX IPO -- or Wait for Anthropic and OpenAI ? The Answer May Surprise You .. Buy the SpaceX IPO -- or Wait for Anthropic and OpenAI ? The Answer May Surprise You ..
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic at 94.8% with $34K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of June? - Anthropic
Trading at 94.8% with $34K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 94.8% | $34K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 13.0% | $9K
Top odds: ↑$1.1T | 96.8%
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 54.0% | $6K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 49.0% | $4K
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 95.0% | $3K
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?
Guest commentary : Who is a Christian ?. This is one of the oldest depictions of the Sacred Heart. 5 Ways to make Sacred Heart consecration change your family.
Sources: idahopress.com, aleteia.org, aleteia.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 5.3% with $98K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 5.3% with $98K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 5.3% | $98K
Top odds: December 31 | 10.0%
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?) | 86.0% | $45K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $20K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 20.8% | $12K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 60.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 7.0% | $5K
Ethereum Jumps 10 % As Crypto Trade Reignites. Ethereum Price Prediction : ETH is Frozen at $1 , 770 Waiting on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. BlockDAG 5000 TPS Leap Outpaces Tron and Mantle.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, ibtimes.com, punchng.com
Can SpaceX Save Solana ? Tokenized SPCX Stocks Rack Up $100 Million In Trading Volume
Can SpaceX Save Solana ? Tokenized SPCX Stocks Rack Up $100 Million In Trading Volume. SpaceX Drives Historic Surge In Tokenized Stock Trading , Market Commentator Says : Solana Dwarfed All O. SpaceX Drives Historic Surge In Tokenized Stock Trading , Market Commentator Says : Solana Dwarfed All O.
Sources: benzinga.com, benzinga.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000 at 5.0% with $110K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in June? - ↑ 75,000.
Event leaders
What price will Solana hit in June?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 60 | 15.6% | $14K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 7.0% | $12K
Popular events
2026 World Cup : 9 WAGs to Watch
2026 World Cup : 9 WAGs to Watch. FIFA WC 2026 : Physically fit Haaland primed for massive impact , says Norway coach Solbakken. 17 - year - old Nigeria - eligible Forward , Ngumoha Named in England World Cup Traveling Squad – THISDAYLIVE.
Sources: vogue.com, prokerala.com, thisdaylive.com
Re - ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day six : France and Argentina justify their top spots
Re - ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day six : France and Argentina justify their top spots. Oldest Players at FIFA World Cup 2026. Qatar paying for fans to cheer them on at Vancouver FIFA World Cup match | Daily Hive.
Sources: nytimes.com, jagranjosh.com, dailyhive.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia at 1.5% with $4M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Colombia.
Event leaders
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Harry Kane | 20.0% | $118K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 25.0%
FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Top volume: Portugal | 96.9% | $53K
Top odds: USA | 97.8%
Top volume & odds: Czechia | 53.0% | $31K
Which continent will win the World Cup?
Top volume: South America (CONMEBOL) | 20.0% | $24K
Top odds: Europe (UEFA) | 72.0%
Popular events
Why states are walking back their own climate and energy laws , and what they could do instead. Govt takes multifaceted plans to tackle climate change impacts : PM. Why states are walking back their own climate and energy laws , and what they could do instead.
Sources: theconversation.com, bssnews.net, hometownregister.com
FSU Scientists Uncover Differences in Drivers of Long - Term Temperature Changes in Atlantic , Pacific Oceans. Anthropic joins Big Tech climate coalition as group pledges. Uzbekistan highlights climate progress at U . N . session in Bonn.
Sources: newswise.com, americanbazaaronline.com, trend.az
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 4.1% with $44K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 4.1% | $44K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 83.0% | $240
Popular events
+$201,666
+$46,585
+$41,497
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard
#1
Awaiting data
n/a
#2
Awaiting data
n/a
#3
Awaiting data
n/a
#4
Awaiting data
n/a
#5
Awaiting data
n/a