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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $757 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "3.75%" at 38.0% and $138 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 85.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$14M
Highest implied
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.8%
Top priced
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? - Andy Burnham
98.8%
Volume leaders
$14M
12.0%
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - USA
$9M
1.3%
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Norway
$8M
5.0%
B1
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? - Yes leads the desk at 1.6% with $551K traded.
Lead stories
OPEC+ August Output Hike : What the 188 , 000 bpd Increase Means for Oil Prices , Gulf Exports and the UAE. Strategically aligned : Singapore , Indonesia pledge to keep Strait of Malacca open and free. Saudi Arabia Ships 34 Million Barrels Through Hormuz Despite Thin Tanker Traffic.
Sources: gulfnews.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, oilprice.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 85.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
How Warsh could change the way Spore analysts read markets
How Warsh could change the way Spore analysts read markets. Inflation Focus Sees Gold , Silver Slip as Citi Expands London Bullion Trading. After Slaughter and Cook : Future Fed Fights , and Maybe Some Midnight Firings.
Sources: straitstimes.com, bullionvault.com, aei.org
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T leads the desk at 5.0% with $57K traded.
Lead stories
Where Will Alphabet Stock Be in 5 Years ?
Where Will Alphabet Stock Be in 5 Years ?. Anthropic and OpenAI enter NATO annual summit as Europe is tired of America asking it to wait. Jason Calacanis Says Nvidia Is Taking the Gloves Off With Nemotron , Predicts Jensen Huang Will Challeng.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, benzinga.com
B5
Lead market: Elon Musk # tweets July 3 - July 10, 2026? - 60-79 leads the desk at 1.7% with $65K traded.
Lead stories
Elon Musk shares heartfelt post on Father Day
Elon Musk shares heartfelt post on Father Day. Melania Trump and Elon Musk : New details reveal a previously unknown White House dispute. Elon Musk Shares Wish For Mankind On 55th Birthday , Mom Maye Says Son Celebrated With Rocket And Moon Bas.
Sources: thenews.com.pk, hola.com, benzinga.com
Actors who earn more from businesses than movies
Actors who earn more from businesses than movies. Gatta Kusthi 2 Worldwide Box Office Collection | Gatta Kusthi 2 Box Office Collection Day 3 | Vishnu Vishal Gatta Kus.... AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 4 : 45 p . m . EDT.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 leads the desk at 86.0% with $112K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Going Parabolic Huge $1 Trillion Price Prediction Issued
Bitcoin Going Parabolic Huge $1 Trillion Price Prediction Issued. Bitcoin Price Tumbled 18 % in June . Here Why It Still a Buy This Summer .. Prediction : This Is What Bitcoin Will Do in the Next Bull Market.
Sources: forbes.com, fool.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: United States leads the desk at 12.0% with $14M traded.
Lead stories
When is the united states - Belgium game ? How to watch , key players and more
When is the united states - Belgium game ? How to watch , key players and more. When is the united states - Belgium game ? How to watch , key players and more. US seeks revenge for thrilling World Cup loss to Belgium in 2014.
Sources: nbcwashington.com, nbcmiami.com, twincities.com
Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets
Kalshi World Cup Giveaway : Win a Share of $1M and Two World Cup Tickets. Pele winner medal among auction World Cup items expected to fetch £2m. FIFA World Cup 2026 Betting Guide : Odds , favorites , key players , underdogs and is it legal ?.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.3% with $21K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
10 Simple Lifestyle Changes to Significantly Lower Your Carbon Footprint
10 Simple Lifestyle Changes to Significantly Lower Your Carbon Footprint. PM directs action plan to increase Bangladesh carbon credits. Queensland Crisafulli government scraps climate sustainability and emissions reports.
Sources: emagazine.com, thedailystar.net,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
98.7%
$1K
GPT-5.6 released by...? - July 31
98.0%
$49K
Taiwan military resumes anti - communist classes for graduates , citing Chinese threat | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking.... Taiwan military resumes anti - communist classes for graduates , citing Chinese threat. Taiwan records hike in Chinese incursions around its territory.
Sources: asahi.com, asiaone.com, news.webindia123.com
Mojtaba missing from funeral : Who are the three Khamenei sons by Ali Khamenei coffin ?
Mojtaba missing from funeral : Who are the three Khamenei sons by Ali Khamenei coffin ?. Where Is Iran New Supreme Leader ? Khamenei Three Sons Attend Funeral , Successor Nowhere in Sight. Khamenei Funeral : Questions Over Location Of Supreme Leader Successor.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, ibtimes.co.uk, newsweek.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? - Yes at 1.6% with $551K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? - Yes
Trading at 1.6% with $551K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?) | 1.6% | $551K
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?) | 6.3% | $117K
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Top volume: July 15 | 10.0% | $91K
Top odds: December 31 | 41.0%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Top volume: July 15 | 6.0% | $90K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 58.0%
Popular events
10.6%
+0.1pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $669M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $647M0%
OPEC+ August Output Hike : What the 188 , 000 bpd Increase Means for Oil Prices , Gulf Exports and the UAE. Strategically aligned : Singapore , Indonesia pledge to keep Strait of Malacca open and free. Saudi Arabia Ships 34 Million Barrels Through Hormuz Despite Thin Tanker Traffic.
Sources: gulfnews.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, oilprice.com
Oil , gas tankers cross Hormuz via Oman - Side route after u - turns
Oil , gas tankers cross Hormuz via Oman - Side route after u - turns. Centre says 15 fertiliser ships have cleared Hormuz , easing Kharif supply concerns. Washington Plan to Neutralize Iran Hormuz Leverage.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, hindustantimes.com, oilprice.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 85.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 85.0% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 59.0% | $343K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 11.0% | $256K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GameStop acquire eBay?) | 13.0% | $27K
Hermes MoA 2 . 0 Combines GPT , Claude and DeepSeek to Outscore Any One Model. OpenAI limits GPT - 5 . 6 rollout after government request , says restrictions shouldnt be the norm. New Google Framework Dubs AI Agents as Potential Insider Threats.
Sources: techtimes.com, businessghana.com, tech.co
Trump restrictions on private AI models turn attention to open source
Trump restrictions on private AI models turn attention to open source. Etched Hits $5B Valuation With $1B AI Chip Contracts. We Tried Base44 First LLM Model to Make a Website.
Sources: yahoo.com, memeburn.com, businessinsider.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T at 5.0% with $57K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$4.0T
Trading at 5.0% with $57K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$4.0T | 5.0% | $57K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 91.0%
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 86.0% | $43K
When will Satoshi's identity be proven?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 7.7% | $2K
Popular events
Sources: moneycontrol.com, filmibeat.com, santamariatimes.com
Legendary NFL coach Andy Reid joins Tabernacle Choir tribute to America 250th anniversary
Legendary NFL coach Andy Reid joins Tabernacle Choir tribute to America 250th anniversary. Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music. Christianity rise seen in newly decoded Aramaic inscription at Mithras temple.
Sources: eastidahonews.com, air1.com, foxnews.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Elon Musk # tweets July 3 - July 10, 2026? - 60-79 at 1.7% with $65K traded.
Top volume remains in Elon Musk # tweets July 3 - July 10, 2026? - 60-79.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 4.1% | $50K
Top odds: December 31 | 7.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $20K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 16.0% | $14K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 74.0%
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Top volume & odds: Elon Musk | 96.6% | $8K
PYMNTS | Dormant Bitcoin Address Reawakens During Crypto Lawsuit. Best Crypto Casinos 2026 : Top Bitcoin & Crypto Sites Ranked.
Sources: pymnts.com, electroiq.com
Vidusha Nathavitharana inspires IDL leadership with session on Collective Leadership
Vidusha Nathavitharana inspires IDL leadership with session on Collective Leadership. Jamie Dimon Said JPMorgan Will Fight Stablecoin Yield Rules in the CLARITY Act Before Congress Breaks for Its August.... CLARITY Act Faces Tight August 7 Deadline as Lawmakers Race Against Senate Recess.
Sources: ft.lk, fool.com, econotimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 at 86.0% with $112K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 65,000 | 86.0% | $112K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 6.6% | $54K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 46.0% | $17K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | $8K
Popular events
Sources: rotowire.com, aol.co.uk, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Ghana Bow Out of World Cup After Narrow Colombia Defeat
Ghana Bow Out of World Cup After Narrow Colombia Defeat. UK sanctions Russians involved with chemical weapons that killed Navalny.
Sources: allafrica.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by United States at 12.0% with $14M traded.
Top volume remains in United States.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Colombia | 42.0% | $395K
Top volume & odds: Argentina | 72.0% | $363K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Erling Haaland | 11.4% | $357K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 48.0%
Popular events
Super typhoon Bavi nears US Pacific islands
Super typhoon Bavi nears US Pacific islands. US CO2 Emissions Jump 3 . 2 % in 2025 as Coal Consumption Rebounds , Driving One - Third of Global Carbon Increase. Super Typhoon Bavi hits US Pacific islands.
Sources: dw.com, greentechlead.com, dw.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.3% with $21K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.3% | $21K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 76.0% | $5K
Popular events
+$55,388
+$50,547
+$29,414
Kalshi via Jupiter
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