Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "3.75%" at 30.2%, with top volume on "4.25%" at 15.5% and $789 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?)" at 5.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
$10M
Highest implied
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↑ 65,000
98.8%
Top priced
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↑ 65,000
98.8%
Volume leaders
$10M
72.0%
$10M
29.0%
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Switzerland
$8M
1.5%
B1
Lead market: Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Pete Buttigieg leads the desk at 2.4% with $398K traded.
Lead stories
Catholic Church in Colombia calls for respecting presidential election results
Catholic Church in Colombia calls for respecting presidential election results. Catholic Church in Colombia calls for respecting presidential election results. How Trump Approval Rating Stands After US 250th Birthday.
Sources: catholicworldreport.com, myspiritfm.com, newsweek.com
Trump threatens Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei funeral saw open calls for his killing
Trump threatens Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei funeral saw open calls for his killing. Trump threatens Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei funeral saw calls for his killing. Trump threatens Iran after Ayatollah funeral saw open calls for his killing.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes leads the desk at 5.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
US seeks Iranian pledge to free up Strait of Hormuz
US seeks Iranian pledge to free up Strait of Hormuz. Europe weighs Oman - backed navigation fee plan in Hormuz to resolve dispute with Iran : Report. Europe reviews Malacca - based proposal to charge ships in Strait of Hormuz.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, livemint.com, thenews.com.pk
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI leads the desk at 1.9% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
Microsoft Reports a Massive 25 Percent Jump in Emissions
Microsoft Reports a Massive 25 Percent Jump in Emissions.
Sources: wired.com
Fidji Simo steps down from OpenAI No . 2 role
Fidji Simo steps down from OpenAI No . 2 role. Apple sues OpenAI over alleged trade secret theft : What happened and why it matters. What Smart People Are Saying About Apple Lawsuit Against OpenAI.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, businesstoday.in,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 3.8% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
Charli xcx Throws a Phone - Free Music , Fashion , Film Playback at New York City Metrograph
Charli xcx Throws a Phone - Free Music , Fashion , Film Playback at New York City Metrograph. AI and the future of movies - Chinadaily . com . cn. AI and the future of movies.
Sources: gq.com, europe.chinadaily.com.cn, global.chinadaily.com.cn
Perfection is of the Lord , by Funmi Komolafe
Perfection is of the Lord , by Funmi Komolafe. What Does Church Seating Communicate ?. Catholic Caucus : Daily Mass Readings 11 - July - 2026.
Sources: ,
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 leads the desk at 87.0% with $69K traded.
Lead stories
Dont buy Bitcoin yet , says legendary analyst forecasting $500 , 000
Dont buy Bitcoin yet , says legendary analyst forecasting $500 , 000. Strategy Says It Might Sell Up to $1 . 25 Billion in Bitcoin . So Is MSTR a Buy , Sell , or Hold Right Now ?. Strategy Says It Might Sell Up to $1 . 25 Billion in Bitcoin . So Is MSTR a Buy , Sell , or Hold Right Now ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: Max Holloway leads the desk at 72.0% with $10M traded.
Lead stories
UFC 329 breaks record thanks to Conor McGregor effect
UFC 329 breaks record thanks to Conor McGregor effect. UFC 329 Live Stream : How To Watch Conor McGregor Vs . Max Holloway 2 Online. UFC 329 : Conor McGregor vs . Holloway : Fight Card , Start Time , Free Trial Info , How To Watch UFC 329 on Paramount+.
Sources: thebiglead.com, tvline.com, decider.com
Will Spain keep finding a way ? Re - ranking the World Cup teams with six games remaining
Will Spain keep finding a way ? Re - ranking the World Cup teams with six games remaining. Is Yamal right to be confident about knocking France out of the World Cup ? Day 30 recap. SBN Reacts World Cup poll results : Champion and Golden Ball.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.3% with $24K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge
Utah measles outbreak has slowed , but the fall season may see another surge.
Sources: fortune.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in July?
98.1%
$23K
Sources: newsday.com, npr.org, boston.com
US Senators , Administration Agree To Advance Russia Sanctions Bill ; Kyiv Hails Move
US Senators , Administration Agree To Advance Russia Sanctions Bill ; Kyiv Hails Move. How Sen . Alex Padilla has emerged as a leading Democrat in voter rights advocacy. How Sen . Alex Padilla has emerged as a leading Democrat in voter rights advocacy.
Sources: globalsecurity.org, dailynews.com, dailybreeze.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Pete Buttigieg at 2.4% with $398K traded.
Top volume remains in Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Pete Buttigieg.
Event leaders
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Top volume: Pete Buttigieg | 2.4% | $398K
Top odds: JD Vance | 19.9%
US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 40.0% | $277K
Top odds: December 31 | 60.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $233K
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Top volume: July 15 | 2.3% | $136K
Top odds: December 31 | 34.0%
Popular events
10.5%
-1.5pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $672M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $656M0%
Stop attacks in Hormuz , or ...: US gives ultimatum to Iran as war continues. Live updates : Iran foreign minister in Oman to discuss Strait of Hormuz. Tehran , Oman discussed appropriate mechanism to keep Hormuz shipping safe , says Iran.
Fed officials fret over inflation risk , weigh rate hikes
Fed officials fret over inflation risk , weigh rate hikes. Supreme Court Reshapes Presidential Control of Federal Agencies : What Employers Need to Know | FordHarrison. Dow Jones Top Markets Headlines at 7 PM ET : South Korean Memory Chip Maker Historic U . S . Debut Jolts Stocks | Fed....
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, jdsupra.com, morningstar.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes at 5.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Yes
Trading at 5.0% with $1M in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 5.0% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 64.0% | $151K
Top volume & odds: No change | 78.0% | $122K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 59.0% | $88K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $95 | 10.2% | $87K
Top odds: ↑ $80 | 52.0%
Why the 2026 IPO boom is about to broaden beyond AI mega - deals
Why the 2026 IPO boom is about to broaden beyond AI mega - deals. A $28 Billion AI IPO Trading at Just 7x Earnings : Too Cheap or Too Cyclical to Trust ?. India to augment AI compute capacity : Ashwini Vaishnaw.
Sources: fortune.com, finance.yahoo.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI at 1.9% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - OpenAI.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: OpenAI | 1.9% | $38K
Top odds: Anthropic | 95.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 22.0% | $10K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume & odds: ↑$1.25T | 92.0% | $2K
Popular events
Christopher Nolan : Obsession , Backrooms Prove Moviegoers Reject AI Slop
Christopher Nolan : Obsession , Backrooms Prove Moviegoers Reject AI Slop. 10 Highest - Grossing Movies With A Budget Less Than $1 Million. When KJo admitted he was skeptical about John Abraham acting skills.
Sources: hollywoodreporter.com, movieweb.com, prokerala.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 3.8% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 3.8% with $69K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 3.8% | $69K
Top odds: December 31 | 8.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $8K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 2.7% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 73.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $2K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 21.0% | $1K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 73.0%
Ethereum ( ETH ) Price Prediction : ETH Slips Towards $1 , 746 as Bulls Eye $1 , 800 Breakout and OBV Confirmation. Ether rises 3 % on tokenization and Robinhood Chain momentum but faces $1 , 800 resistance amid weak onchain metrics .. BitMine Immersion Technologies ( NASDAQ : BMNR ) Chairman Tom Lee Spots Key Ethereum Support Levels As Token Trades 6....
Oil Is Below $76 . So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65 , 000 ?
Oil Is Below $76 . So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65 , 000 ?. Traders See No Bitcoin Bull - Market Comeback Despite 10 % July Gains. Oil Is Below $76 . So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65 , 000 ?.
Sources: fool.com, cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 at 87.0% with $69K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 65,000 | 87.0% | $69K
Popular events
World Cup Betting Promos ( July 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup
World Cup Betting Promos ( July 2026 ): Best Promos for the World Cup. World Cup 2026 : Spain snatch late winner against Belgium to reach World Cup semi - final. FIFA World Cup Viral Theory : Has the strange Japan factor already guessed 2026 champion ?.
Sources: rotowire.com, lbc.co.uk, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Max Holloway at 72.0% with $10M traded.
Top volume remains in Max Holloway.
Event leaders
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Top volume & odds: Max Holloway | 72.0% | $10M
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Jude Bellingham | 2.6% | $142K
Top odds: Kylian Mbappe | 52.0%
2026 FIFA World Cup: Nation to Reach Final
Top volume: England | 59.0% | $113K
Top odds: France | 60.0%
Popular events
Vol $10M
76mm of rain leaves parts of Dhaka waterlogged , disrupts daily life.
Sources: thedailystar.net
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.3% with $24K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.3% | $24K
Popular events
+$47,014
+$32,003
+$22,582
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard