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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?" Event volume totals $3M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "December 31, 2026" at 3.1% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 66.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
F1 Drivers' Champion - Oscar Piastri
$3M
Highest implied
Israeli parliament dissolved by...? - July 31
98.8%
Top priced
Israeli parliament dissolved by...? - July 31
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 20.0% with $571K traded.
Lead stories
US - Iran news LIVE : Bahrain sounds air raid sirens ; Bushehr hit after Trump major attack warning
US - Iran news LIVE : Bahrain sounds air raid sirens ; Bushehr hit after Trump major attack warning. Iran claims to down US MQ - 1 drone over Hormuz as Trump says blockade targets only Iran.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, moneycontrol.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 66.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Top 5 Economic Events Every Trader Should Watch in July 2026
Top 5 Economic Events Every Trader Should Watch in July 2026. Fed Waller concerned about rising inflation. A July rate hike from the Fed ? The odds are rising.
Sources: vanguardngr.com, nationalmortgagenews.com, cnbc.com
Who guards Hormuz and who gets paid ? Trump and Iran clash over control of the strait
Who guards Hormuz and who gets paid ? Trump and Iran clash over control of the strait. Guardian of the Hormuz Strait : Iran Rejects Trump 20 % Cargo Fee Proposal | World News. Trump Announces 20 Percent Cargo Charge , Declares US Guardian of Hormuz Strait Amid Fresh Iran Tensions.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic leads the desk at 96.0% with $32K traded.
Lead stories
GPT - 6 Release Rumors : Is OpenAI Finished Training ?
GPT - 6 Release Rumors : Is OpenAI Finished Training ?. Cursor Sand : the Claude Cowork rival with a Musk catch. Elon Musk does not agree with companies who want employees to use in - house AI models , says : You should continue u....
Sources: geeky-gadgets.com, thenextweb.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
The Same TypeScript Costs 73 % More Tokens on Claude Than GPT
The Same TypeScript Costs 73 % More Tokens on Claude Than GPT. We Asked 4 AI Models if Saylor Strategy ( MSTR ) Survives if Bitcoin Price Falls to $50K. HIGH Reasoning Sweet Spot for Anthropic Fable and OpenAI GPT 5 . 6.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 3.8% with $92K traded.
Lead stories
Free three - day festival SankofaFest is launching in Toronto
Free three - day festival SankofaFest is launching in Toronto. Michael Biopic Crosses A Billion , 1st Biopic In History. Obsession Movie OTT Release : 2026 horror sensation all set to stream online ; when to watch it on Netflix.
Sources: toronto.com, hot97.com, livemint.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 leads the desk at 64.0% with $147K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , July 13 , 2026 : Strong price openings backtracking this morning. Michael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Purchases With Orange Dot Analyst Sees Great Opportunity in. Bitcoin Prices Drop As Geopolitical Turmoil Triggers Risk - Off Selling.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, benzinga.com, forbes.com
B7
Lead market: F1 Drivers' Champion - Oscar Piastri leads the desk at 1.5% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Max Verstappen teammate to Kimi Antonelli or Lando Norris : Would it work ?
Max Verstappen teammate to Kimi Antonelli or Lando Norris : Would it work ?. The Coolest Cars of the 2026 Goodwood Festival of Speed. Ryan Blaney emerges from rain - soaked Georgia race with OT win.
Sources: grandprix247.com, autoweek.com, yardbarker.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.5% with $18K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
2026 EPI : Climate Bright Spots but Slow Progress Globally
2026 EPI : Climate Bright Spots but Slow Progress Globally. Climate disclosure gives Canadian companies an edge with European investors , new research shows. Kyrgyzstan Adopts Central Asia First Framework Climate Law - The Times Of Central Asia.
Sources: environment.yale.edu, theconversation.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.2%
$44K
Iran says US - Iran MoU in crisis phase , suspends commitments until US complies. Why has the Iran - US ceasefire memorandum frayed ?. Why has the Iran - US ceasefire memorandum frayed ?.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, irishtimes.com, tribune.com.pk
The index that reveals the truth about life in Israel
The index that reveals the truth about life in Israel. Israel energy blind spot : Why gas export strategy risks long - term security. When are Israel 2026 elections ? Full timeline and key dates explained.
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 20.0% with $571K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 20.0% | $571K
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 27.0% | $300K
Top odds: August 15 | 38.0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 10.0% | $184K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Top volume: September 30 | 17.0% | $122K
Top odds: December 31 | 29.0%
Popular events
12.1%
-0.1pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $673M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $658M0%
Falling gas prices cut U . S . inflation in June but Iran worries remain
Falling gas prices cut U . S . inflation in June but Iran worries remain. Fed officials deeply divided over future path of US inflation. Kevin Warsh Has Grand Ambitions for the Fed , But a Family Fight Stands in His Way.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, wbaltv.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 66.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 66.0% | $1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 2.7% | $485K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 80.2% | $177K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $85 | 53.0% | $158K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 71.0% | $141K
Popular events
Sources: playcode.io, finance.yahoo.com, nextbigfuture.com
Elon Musk Says He Was Clearly Wrong About Anthropic Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) Models . Here Why That Outstanding.... OpenAI Sam Altman criticizes Elon Musk space data center plans amid public feud. AI price war heats up as OpenAI , Meta and Musk slash model costs.
Sources: fool.com, proactiveinvestors.com, latimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic at 96.0% with $32K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
Trading at 96.0% with $32K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 96.0% | $32K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 11.0% | $24K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 91.0%
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume: None by June 30, 2027 | 12.0% | $2K
Top odds: Paramount | 82.0%
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 77.0% | $1K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 20.0% | $1K
If indeed one ought to call him a man : New study shows historical Jesus had bigger impact than we thought. Lubbock school supply drive accepting donations through July 23 ahead of free Back - 2 - School Bash. Was Jesus Married ? Did He Have a Wife ?.
Sources: theblaze.com, kcbd.com, biblestudytools.com
Luka Vuskovic : Brighton sign Croatia defender from Tottenham for club record £46m
Luka Vuskovic : Brighton sign Croatia defender from Tottenham for club record £46m. AL Rookie of the Year Odds : Kevin McGonigle Ahead of Munetaka Murakami at All - Star Break. NL Rookie of the Year Odds : JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart Battling at the Top.
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 3.8% with $92K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 3.8% with $92K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 3.8% | $92K
Top odds: December 31 | 8.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $13K
Top volume & odds: Kevin McGonigle | 71.0% | $3K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Toy Story 5 | 5.3% | $2K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 73.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 1 | 36.0% | $1K
Top odds: 2 | 61.0%
Trump urges Senate to pass crypto Clarity Act in honor of late Lindsey Graham. Trump Urges Senate to Pass Key Crypto Bill to Honor Lindsey Graham. Trump Revives Push for CLARITY Act After Senate Committee Clearance.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, theepochtimes.com, econotimes.com
If you invested just $100 a month in Bitcoin since 2015 , here what it worth today
If you invested just $100 a month in Bitcoin since 2015 , here what it worth today. Bitcoin under pressure as US - Iran crisis deepens. Crypto Market Today , July 13 : Crypto Slides on Renewed Inflation Fears.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, arynews.tv, fool.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000 at 64.0% with $147K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 65,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 65,000 | 64.0% | $147K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 39.0% | $51K
Popular events
FIFA World Cup 2026 Semi - Final : France vs Spain Date , Time , Venue , Head - to - Head and Where to Watch.
Sources: jagranjosh.com
Ranking the top 50 players at the 2026 World Cup : Who were the winners and losers from the quarter - finals ?. Who are the World Cup record holders ?. VIDEO : Lionel Messi , Argentina leave Kansas City for Atlanta.
Sources: nytimes.com, businessghana.com, kmbc.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by F1 Drivers' Champion - Oscar Piastri at 1.5% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in F1 Drivers' Champion - Oscar Piastri.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: France | 40.5% | $2M
Top volume & odds: France | 39.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: England | 36.0% | $266K
Popular events
Heavy floods submerge roads , vehicles in northern China
Heavy floods submerge roads , vehicles in northern China. Heavy floods submerge roads , vehicles in northern China.
Sources: tribune.com.pk, adaderana.lk
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.5% with $18K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.5% | $18K
Popular events
+$47,014
+$32,003
+$25,810
Kalshi via Jupiter
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