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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $763 traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "3.75%" at 30.4%, with top volume on "3.5%" at 13.6% and $115 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 93.0% and $3M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain
$8M
Highest implied
Israeli parliament dissolved by...? - July 31
98.8%
Top priced
Israeli parliament dissolved by...? - July 31
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? - July 17 leads the desk at 17.4% with $379K traded.
Lead stories
The $300 billion question : Funding peace , or Iran next proxy war ?
The $300 billion question : Funding peace , or Iran next proxy war ?. Why fresh US - Iran escalation has left mediator Pakistan in dire straits. Explainer : Is the U . S .- Iran memorandum of understanding still alive ?.
Sources: washingtonexaminer.com, moneycontrol.com, timesofoman.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 93.0% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Top Fed officials embrace cooler inflation reading , clamor for more
Top Fed officials embrace cooler inflation reading , clamor for more. Warsh says Fed policymakers have no tolerance for elevated inflation. Top Fed officials embrace cooler inflation reading , clamour for more.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, foxbusiness.com, businesstimes.com.sg
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google leads the desk at 2.3% with $35K traded.
Lead stories
OpenAI and Anthropic Are Developing Their Own Custom AI Chips : Here Are the Stocks That Could Benefit The Most. GitHub - hkjarral / AVA - AI - Voice - Agent - for - Asterisk : An open - source AI Voice Agent that integrates with.... Tech & AI News today : TCS is building AI army , Nadella shares new paradox , and Samsung hikes prices.
Sources: fool.com, github.com, financialexpress.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 3.8% with $62K traded.
Lead stories
Denis Villeneuve , Vija Celmins to Be Honored at 2026 LACMA Gala
Denis Villeneuve , Vija Celmins to Be Honored at 2026 LACMA Gala. Olivier Rousteing Joins Rabanne : 5 Iconic Celebrity Looks. Josie and the Pussycats Films 25 - Year Legacy : A Look at Its Prescient Take on the Music Industry.
Sources: wwd.com, hellobeautiful.com, artistdirect.com
Stranger Things Photo Book , Behind - the - Scenes Photos : Buy Online
Stranger Things Photo Book , Behind - the - Scenes Photos : Buy Online. Frustration as lorries shun town new bypass. How 80s icon Howard Jones curates new wave Things Can Only Get Better tour – Orange County Register.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 72,500 leads the desk at 12.0% with $104K traded.
Lead stories
Current price of Bitcoin for July 14 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for July 14 , 2026. Crypto Market Today , July 14 : Ethereum Soars 6 % on Cooler Inflation Data. Bitcoin Hits $64 , 000 , Ethereum Gains 5 % on Ice - Cold Inflation Print : What Is Happening ?.
Sources: fortune.com, fool.com, benzinga.com
COIN Stock Alert : 3 Reasons Why Coinbase Shares Are In Focus
COIN Stock Alert : 3 Reasons Why Coinbase Shares Are In Focus. Bitcoin holds near $62 , 000 as RHODL compression signals the historic market rotation. Current price of Ethereum for July 14 , 2026.
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain leads the desk at 58.2% with $8M traded.
Lead stories
Spain sparkles to shock France 2 - 0 and advance to the World Cup final
Spain sparkles to shock France 2 - 0 and advance to the World Cup final. Spain shocks France to advance to the World Cup final : NPR. Spain sparkles to shock France 2 - 0 and advance to the World Cup final.
When can England play Lionel Messi and Argentina at the World Cup ?
When can England play Lionel Messi and Argentina at the World Cup ?. England possible routes to the World Cup final 2026 with dates and kick - off times | Football. England possible routes to the World Cup final 2026 with dates and kick - off times | Football.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.0% with $52K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Saskatchewan storm season close to breaking records as tornado totals rise - Saskatoon
Saskatchewan storm season close to breaking records as tornado totals rise - Saskatoon. No end in sight for united kingdom heatwave as weather maps stay red. When will it rain ? Met Office gives verdict on next rain forecast for united kingdom.
Sources: globalnews.ca, birminghammail.co.uk,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.3%
$74K
US - Iran War Live : US launches fresh strikes on Iran , begins blockade of Iranian ports. US - Iran War Live Updates : US launches fresh strikes on Iran ahead of naval blockade ; explosions rock Bandar Abbas.
Iran live updates : US launches airstrikes against Iran , official says
Iran live updates : US launches airstrikes against Iran , official says. Tehran celebrated Lindsey Graham death . Washington shouldnt shrug it off. US sanctions more than 50 individuals , entities , vessels tied to Iranian shipping ..
Sources: abcnews.com, washingtonexaminer.com, aa.com.tr
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? - July 17 at 17.4% with $379K traded.
Top volume remains in Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? - July 17.
Lead event
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? - July 17
Trading at 17.4% with $379K in volume.
Event leaders
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Top volume: July 17 | 17.4% | $379K
Top odds: August 15 | 44.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 19.0% | $267K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 10.0% | $177K
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 10.0% | $116K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 19.0%
Popular events
12.1%
0.0pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $674M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $659M0%
Lights out : How Iran quietly moved millions of barrels through Hormuz under America nose. Iranian FM mocks Trump over Strait of Hormuz payment demand : We will be fair. Trump guardian fee : How much would a supertanker have to pay to cross Strait of Hormuz ?.
Oil eases off day highs after Trump nixes proposed 20 % Strait of Hormuz transit fee ( USO : NYSEARCA ). US Crude Oil , Gasoline Inventories Still Falling. Gas Prices Expected To Rise With Renewed US / Iran War | 106 . 7 The Eagle.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, oilprice.com, 1067theeagle.iheart.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 93.0% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 93.0% | $3M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 1.5% | $492K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $85 | 56.0% | $229K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 53.0% | $168K
Popular events
Anthropic is Keeping Free Claude Fable 5 Access Longer Than Planned. Gemini 3 . 5 Pro Delay Rumors Explained Amid GPT - 5 . 6 Push. Richest AI founder isnt Sam Altman or Dario Amodei It this Chinese Billionaire - US News.
Sources: propakistani.pk, geeky-gadgets.com, financialexpress.com
S & P Global : AI - native firms pose significant threat to Indian IT service providers
S & P Global : AI - native firms pose significant threat to Indian IT service providers. IBM shares plunge 25 % as AI spending boom disrupts business.
Sources: rediff.com, nzherald.co.nz
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google at 2.3% with $35K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Google.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume: Google | 2.3% | $35K
Top odds: Anthropic | 96.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 9.0% | $29K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 91.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: PayPal | 79.0% | $2K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 86.0%
Top volume: 1.5T+ | 3.9% | $1K
Top odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 81.0%
Sources: variety.com, yahoo.com, ocregister.com
Obsession Officially Holds A Major 2026 Box Office Record
Obsession Officially Holds A Major 2026 Box Office Record. I , Nobody Box Office : How Much Does It Need To Crack Prithviraj Sukumaran Top 5 Highest - Grossing Films In India ?. Michael $1 Billion Chances Just Got a Huge Box Office Boost.
Sources: screenrant.com, koimoi.com, comingsoon.net
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 3.8% with $62K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 3.8% with $62K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 3.8% | $62K
Top odds: December 31 | 8.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $48K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 5.8% | $14K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 75.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $10K
Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
Top volume & odds: Este Haim | 94.7% | $3K
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, fortune.com
The Clarity Act isnt a ticket to sanctions evasion , actually
The Clarity Act isnt a ticket to sanctions evasion , actually. Three US Senators Oppose CLARITY Act on Ethics Grounds with Vote Expected Soon. Trump Asks Senate to Pass Crypto Bill in Honor of Lindsey Graham Elizabeth Warren Wants Guardrails to.
Sources: coindesk.com, cointelegraph.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 72,500 at 12.0% with $104K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 72,500.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 38.0% | $44K
What price will Ethereum hit in July?
Top volume & odds: ↑ 1,900 | 95.0% | $38K
Popular events
World Cup 2026 : Time for Lamine Yamal to ignite ? Or another Mbappe World Cup masterclass ?
World Cup 2026 : Time for Lamine Yamal to ignite ? Or another Mbappe World Cup masterclass ?. Luka Vuskovic : Brighton sign Croatia defender from Tottenham for club record £46m. Spain are not covered in stardust . It one of the reasons they are in the World Cup final.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bbc.co.uk, nytimes.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain at 58.2% with $8M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Spain.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Spain | 58.2% | $8M
Top volume & odds: England | 35.25% | $1M
2026 FIFA World Cup: Top Goalscorer
Top volume: Kylian Mbappe | 37.0% | $932K
Top odds: Lionel Messi | 51.2%
Popular events
Vol $1M
Bangladesh floods heighten dengue , cholera risks , says IFRC
Bangladesh floods heighten dengue , cholera risks , says IFRC.
Sources: channelnewsasia.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.0% with $52K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.0% | $52K
Popular events
+$47,014
+$32,003
+$25,810
Kalshi via Jupiter
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