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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?" Event volume totals $7M across outcomes, with $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "3.75%" at 32.0%, with top volume on "4.0%" at 25.5% and $5 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 94.3% and $640K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Argentina
$3M
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.2%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.2%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 28.0% with $651K traded.
Lead stories
US - Iran news LIVE : Iran claims 2 tankers exploded in Hormuz , US denies ; sirens go off in Bahrain.
Sources: hindustantimes.com
Ukraine cuts off Crimea from Russia , plunging it into an energy crisis | Russia - Ukraine war News
Ukraine cuts off Crimea from Russia , plunging it into an energy crisis | Russia - Ukraine war News. Comment by the MFA on the Ninth OSCE ODIHR Report documenting the Russian Federation widespread violations of interna.... The Battle for Borsch.
Sources:
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 94.3% with $640K traded.
Lead stories
US Fed official supports higher rates to curb inflation
US Fed official supports higher rates to curb inflation. Fed rate - hike voices swell before July decision , rates still seen on hold. FxWirePro : AUD / USD eases as risk sentiment remains fragile.
Sources: hurriyetdailynews.com, spokesman.com, econotimes.com
US strikes hit Iran for seventh consecutive night
US strikes hit Iran for seventh consecutive night. Iran Guards say two oil tankers explode after hitting mines in Hormuz. Why the Strait of Hormuz has become Iran biggest bargaining chip.
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic leads the desk at 98.1% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub
Robotics company sets up shop in Fremont for cutting - edge tech hub.
Sources: mercurynews.com
China Moonshot AI claims Kimi K3 can rival OpenAI and Anthropic
China Moonshot AI claims Kimi K3 can rival OpenAI and Anthropic. Should You Try Kimi K3 ? Here How AI Model Compares With ChatGPT And Claude. Bitcoin faces fresh headwinds as China Kimi beats Claude , GPT in coding benchmark.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, forbes.com,
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 6.0% with $142K traded.
Lead stories
Abbott anniversary , Pride Festival , Canandaigua Arts Fest
Abbott anniversary , Pride Festival , Canandaigua Arts Fest. Shola Animashaun : Jack of shots , master of photography. Zendaya Goddess Style Sets The Odyssey Carpets Alight.
Sources: whec.com, thenationonlineng.net, thewrap.com
OK Church Grocery Giveaway Helps Hundreds as 35 Turn to Christ
OK Church Grocery Giveaway Helps Hundreds as 35 Turn to Christ. What happens when you turn a Saint into a scapegoat ?. [ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : The Quiet Strength of Meekness Saturda....
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 70,000 leads the desk at 14.0% with $297K traded.
Lead stories
BlackRock CEO Issues Surprise 12 - Month Bitcoin And Crypto Price Prediction
BlackRock CEO Issues Surprise 12 - Month Bitcoin And Crypto Price Prediction. Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , July 17 , 2026 : Prices ease as conflict in Iran escalates. Price Prediction : MicroStrategy Has 260 % Upside as Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates.
Sources: forbes.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
B7
Lead market: 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Argentina leads the desk at 40.5% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
List of World Cup winners ahead of Argentina vs . Spain 2026 final – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth
List of World Cup winners ahead of Argentina vs . Spain 2026 final – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth. List of World Cup winners ahead of Argentina vs . Spain 2026 final – NBC4 Washington. List of World Cup winners ahead of Argentina vs . Spain 2026 final – NBC 7 San Diego.
Sources: nbcdfw.com, nbcwashington.com, nbcsandiego.com
How To Listen To Third Place World Cup Game Between France And England
How To Listen To Third Place World Cup Game Between France And England. How To Listen To Third Place World Cup Game Between France And England. How To Listen To Third Place World Cup Game Between France And England.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.1% with $15K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Rivers rise above danger levels across Barishal division , pontoons submerged in Bhola
Rivers rise above danger levels across Barishal division , pontoons submerged in Bhola.
Sources: thedailystar.net
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
US targets Dubai financier tied to Khamenei in fresh Iran sanctions
US targets Dubai financier tied to Khamenei in fresh Iran sanctions. BREAKING : U . S . Strikes Iran After More Ceasefire Violations. U . S . Squeezes Iran Regime Financiers and Shadow Banking Networks.
Sources: thenews.com.pk, pjmedia.com, globalsecurity.org
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 28.0% with $651K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 28.0% | $651K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 9.0% | $362K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 11.0% | $266K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 78.1% | $185K
Top volume & odds: Nigel Farage | 95.3% | $117K
Popular events
14.5%
0.0pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $676M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $663M0%
Sources: bbc.co.uk, arabnews.com, moneycontrol.com
Fuel price : Global oil prices climb to over 4 per cent
Fuel price : Global oil prices climb to over 4 per cent. Exclusive : Skip USO and BNO ? Louis Navellier Explains Why Traders Should Prefer Individual Stock Like. Oil Prices Rise Nearly 12 % This Week As US - Iran Conflict Raises Supply Concerns.
Sources: dailypost.ng, benzinga.com, freepressjournal.in
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 94.3% with $640K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 94.3% | $640K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?) | 1.4% | $268K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $110 | 4.0% | $115K
Top odds: ↑ $85 | 70.0%
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 50.0% | $60K
Popular events
Anthropic schedules investor meetings ahead of potential IPO
Anthropic schedules investor meetings ahead of potential IPO. Nvidia Loses Top Spot to Apple as Chip Selloff Hits Valuation. Nvidia briefly drops below Apple as top - valued company.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, deccanchronicle.com, freemalaysiatoday.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic at 98.1% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of July? - Anthropic
Trading at 98.1% with $37K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.1% | $37K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.5T | 69.0% | $16K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 92.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.0% | $5K
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume & odds: Paramount | 75.0% | $2K
Blake Lively Finds This Part of Her Friendship With Taylor Swift Incredibly Unfair Source
Blake Lively Finds This Part of Her Friendship With Taylor Swift Incredibly Unfair Source. Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce Disheartened by Wedding Fallout Source. Chef died after car crashed on rural road near Welshpool.
Sources: realitytea.com, aol.com, countytimes.co.uk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 6.0% with $142K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 6.0% with $142K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $142K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $8K
Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
Top volume & odds: Max Martin | 47.0% | $7K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: The Odyssey | 7.1% | $6K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 75.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 2 | 63.0% | $2K
Is Robinhood Chain Success Bullish or Bearish for ETH ?. The Latest Inflation Print Was Cooler . Does That Make Crypocurrencies a Buy ?. Bitcoin falls nearly 2 % to $63 , 000 as geopolitical tensions weigh on crypto markets.
Trump to Meet Senators on CLARITY Act push
Trump to Meet Senators on CLARITY Act push. Trump urges Senate to pass crypto Clarity Act in honor of late Lindsey Graham. Clarity Act negotiations : High - level White House meeting planned , sources say.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, hindustantimes.com, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 70,000 at 14.0% with $297K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 70,000.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 43.0% | $38K
Popular events
Antonelli fastest in second Belgian Grand Prix practice , Gasly crashes
Antonelli fastest in second Belgian Grand Prix practice , Gasly crashes. Our Blood Institute offering chance to meet Jaylin Williams with blood donation. Chad Ochocinco pushes back on Stephen A . Smith claim that NASCAR drivers arent athletes.
Sources: timeslive.co.za, fox23.com, motorsport.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Argentina at 40.5% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner - Argentina.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: France | 52.0% | $1M
Popular events
Vol $1M
Henkel Sustainability Report 2025 : 97 Percent Renewable Electricity , 29 Percent Emissions Cut Strengthen Net - Zero.... Carbon trading crucial breakthrough for green economy : envoy. Vampire Planet : What the Story of China and Australia Solar Success Gets Wrong.
Sources: greentechlead.com, en.antaranews.com, counterpunch.org
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.1% with $15K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.1% | $15K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 88.0% | $281
Popular events
+$47,014
+$32,003
+$30,563
Kalshi via Jupiter
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