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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $232M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Abiy Ahmed" at 94.9%, with top volume on "Gedion Timothewos" at 2.2% and $2K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in July?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 78.6% and $389K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Belete Molla
$0
Highest implied
MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.7%
Top priced
MLB: NL Platinum Glove Winner - Pete Crow-Armstrong
98.7%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 25.0% with $580K traded.
Lead stories
Iran - backed Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia in response to airstrikes in Yemen
Iran - backed Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia in response to airstrikes in Yemen. Iran - backed Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia in response to airstrikes in Yemen. Iran - backed Houthis fire missiles at Saudi Arabia in response to airstrikes in Yemen.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, bostonglobe.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in July? - No change leads the desk at 78.6% with $389K traded.
Lead stories
Investors are in the dark about the Fed decision this week - and that just how Warsh wants it
Investors are in the dark about the Fed decision this week - and that just how Warsh wants it. Kevin Warsh Just Vowed to Bring a Regime Change to the Fed . It Could Rattle Wall Street .. Global bonds are reeling as oil surge rekindles inflation threat.
Sources: morningstar.com, fool.com, businesstimes.com.sg
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 86.0% with $6K traded.
Lead stories
Better Buy : SpaceX or Nvidia ?
Better Buy : SpaceX or Nvidia ?. Elon Musk Wouldnt Rule Out a Tesla - SpaceX Merger on the July 22 Earnings Call . Here What It Would Mean for the Sha.... Trump faces AI backlash from unions and data - center critics : Analysis.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, cnbc.com
AI Industry Red & Yellow Flags - CleanTechnica
AI Industry Red & Yellow Flags - CleanTechnica. OpenAI Employees Dropped More Than $296 , 000 On Democrats While Republicans Got Nothing , Filings Show. SpaceXAI Grok 4 . 5 is 11th on Openrouter Token Share.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 6.0% with $66K traded.
Lead stories
Karavali box office collections day 1 : Prajwal Devaraj - Raj B . Shetty starrer earns Rs 1 . 82 Cr India Net , opens.... 7 Nollywood Sleeper - hit Films Everyone Should Watch. Euro - afric festival 2026 to unite africa , europe through music.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, ynaija.com, businessghana.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 leads the desk at 28.0% with $79K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed If the Fed Helps , Says Grayscale
Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed If the Fed Helps , Says Grayscale. Is Bitcoin Still a Millionaire Maker ? | The Motley Fool. 1 Popular Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 125 %, According to Cathie Wood Ark Invest.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
Anthony Scaramucci : Bitcoin Fear Remains Extreme , But It Will Grind Higher
Anthony Scaramucci : Bitcoin Fear Remains Extreme , But It Will Grind Higher. Letter : Keep housing affordable after covenant expires | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Bitcoin nation : Trump bets America future on crypto.
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane leads the desk at 43.7% with $73K traded.
Lead stories
2026 Ballon dOr : Kane , Yamal Lead Contenders ; Messi , Mbappé
2026 Ballon dOr : Kane , Yamal Lead Contenders ; Messi , Mbappé. Pre - Match Poser no . 36 : Can you answer this elite - level football quiz question ?.
Sources: punchng.com, fourfourtwo.com
34 Behaviors That Set Very Intelligent People Apart From Everyone Else
34 Behaviors That Set Very Intelligent People Apart From Everyone Else.
Sources: aol.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.4% with $16K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
China evacuates 20 , 000 people as Typhoon Noul nears
China evacuates 20 , 000 people as Typhoon Noul nears. Typhoon Noul Threatens China : 340 , 000 Evacuated as Storm Nears Coast. How Can Scientists Claim Climate Change Made A Heat Wave Worse ?.
Sources: thehindu.com, deccanchronicle.com,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Putin Gets Spectacularly Ambushed After Leaving His Bunker. Ukraine strikes Siberia refinery. Russia War and Putin Choice.
Sources: thedailybeast.com, tribune.com.pk, realclearworld.com
PM Edition : Top 10 Business Articles on LiveNews . co . nz for July 26 , 2026 – Full Text – LiveNews . co . nz.
Sources: livenews.co.nz
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 25.0% with $580K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 25.0% | $580K
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 9.0% | $221K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 17.0%
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
Top volume: July 31 | 1.6% | $208K
Top odds: August 15 | 7.0%
Top volume & odds: Nicolás Maduro | 82.3% | $170K
Popular events
13.8%
-0.7pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $680M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $671M0%
Petrol , diesel prices today , July 26 : Check latest rates in Delhi , Mumbai , Chennai , Kolkata and other cities. Gulf oil producers race to build alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz as oil hits $100. Latin America oil wrap : WTI slips , Petrobras , YPF follow.
Sources: businesstoday.in, finance.yahoo.com, riotimesonline.com
US & united kingdom Plan Global Coalition To Protect Commercial Shipping In Strait Of Hormuz Amid Escalating Tensions.... Hormuz Tanker Crossing Fall To Lowest In Two Months , Signals Greater Market Disruption. Saudi - Led Coalition Trades Shots With Yemen Houthis.
Sources: freepressjournal.in, leadership.ng, theepochtimes.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in July? - No change at 78.6% with $389K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in July? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 78.6% | $389K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $95 | 17.9% | $164K
Top odds: ↓ $90 | 97.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 56.0% | $155K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 71.0% | $44K
Top volume: Apple | 23.6% | $40K
Top odds: Largest Company end of July? | 78.0%
Popular events
Nvidia , SK Group unveil $500 billion - plus AI data centres initiative , memory partnership
Nvidia , SK Group unveil $500 billion - plus AI data centres initiative , memory partnership. Op - Ed : The US narrative about Chinese AI distillation theft ignores too many hard realities. An AI agent went rogue - should we be worried ?.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, digitaljournal.com, rte.ie
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 86.0% with $6K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 86.0% | $6K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.5T | 20.0% | $3K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 85.0%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Perplexity AI | 25.0% | $1K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 73.0%
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume & odds: Paramount | 67.0% | $251
Popular events
Lynchburg neighbors : Obituaries for July 25
Lynchburg neighbors : Obituaries for July 25. Twenty churches unite as 80 people are baptised in public celebration. 5 Fruits in art and their spiritual symbolism.
Sources: newsadvance.com, christiantoday.com, aleteia.org
The Odyssey Still Slaying At The Box - Office
The Odyssey Still Slaying At The Box - Office. Christopher Nolan The Odyssey breaks his all - time global record. Tangled Live - Action Set Photos Reveal Rapunzel Parents & 2 Cast Members.
Sources: darkhorizons.com, foxnews.com, screenrant.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 6.0% with $66K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 6.0% with $66K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 6.0% | $66K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $20K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 83.0% | $10K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 66.0% | $8K
Top volume & odds: Shohei Ohtani | 65.0% | $4K
1 Popular Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 125 %, According to Cathie Wood Ark Invest
1 Popular Cryptocurrency to Buy Before It Soars 1 , 125 %, According to Cathie Wood Ark Invest. Crypto Trader Sells $2 . 5M In Ferraris To Buy More Bitcoin. Nvidia , SK Group unveil $500 billion - plus AI data centres initiative , memory partnership.
Sources: fool.com, benzinga.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 at 28.0% with $79K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 37.0% | $54K
Popular events
F1 : Russell gains valuable championship points with Austria win - Inside Track Motorsport News.
Sources: insidetracknews.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane at 43.7% with $73K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 43.7% | $73K
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Top volume: Anyone's Legend | 25.0% | $69K
Top odds: Bilibili Gaming | 76.0%
Top volume & odds: Mercedes | 87.0% | $46K
Popular events
Vol $69K
Why is Typhoon Noul forcing mass evacuations in southern China ?
Why is Typhoon Noul forcing mass evacuations in southern China ?. Roundup of climate and environmental news to July 26 , 2026 .. Southern China faces torrential rain , flood risk after Typhoon Noul hits land.
Sources: news.az, theprovince.com, jpost.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.4% with $16K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.4% | $16K
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 | 72.0% | $10
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 14–16 | 50.0% | $0
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,498
Kalshi via Jupiter
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