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News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" Event volume totals $51M across outcomes, with $2M traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?)" at 25.0% and $2M 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 53.0%, with top volume on "No change" at 45.0% and $2M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 25.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Northern Virginia Republicans vie to take on US Sen . Mark Warner
Northern Virginia Republicans vie to take on US Sen . Mark Warner. Lankford on government shutdowns , Iran conflict , veterans benefits , and election security. In U . S . Senate race , Haley Stevens blurs lines on Michigan utility donations – PolitiFact.
Sources: wtop.com, kswo.com, politifact.com
Man convicted over terror attack which left author without sight in one eye
Man convicted over terror attack which left author without sight in one eye. Salman Rushdie Attacker Convicted of Terrorism Charges : US Justice Dept. Rushdie assailant convicted of terrorism charges : US Justice Dept.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - No change leads the desk at 45.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Kevin Warsh Tough Talk Aside , He Done Nothing Different , Says Peter Schiff , Other Economists Criti. Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight – Boston Herald. US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged.
Sources: benzinga.com, bostonherald.com, usa.chinadaily.com.cn
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T leads the desk at 16.0% with $30K traded.
Lead stories
Samsung reports record operating profit
Samsung reports record operating profit. SpaceX Memphis AI data centers face House Energy Committee demands. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar tells employees ARR in July topped all of Q2.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, cnbc.com, cnbc.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 leads the desk at 1.2% with $152K traded.
Lead stories
Spike Lee , Clara Wu Tsai and BAM present a new arts festival
Spike Lee , Clara Wu Tsai and BAM present a new arts festival. Things to Do in Washington State in August , 2025. Here what happening in Toronto this weekend : July 24 - 26.
Sources: brooklyneagle.com, seattlemet.com, nowtoronto.com
Top 10 highest earning film directors and the movies that made them billion dollar legends , Check full list here. I , Nobody Box Office : How Much Does It Need To Crack Prithviraj Sukumaran Top 5 Highest - Grossing Films In India ?. Minions & Monsters Worldwide Box Office : Inches Away From Becoming The 4th Highest - Grossing Animation of 2026 ?.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 leads the desk at 2.2% with $340K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Thursday , July 30 , 2026 : Prices rise after Fed leaves rates unchanged. Prediction : Bitcoin Will Be Worth $2 . 5 Trillion in 3 Years. Prediction : Bitcoin Will Be Worth $2 . 5 Trillion in 3 Years.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, fool.com
B7
Lead market: NBA: 2027 Champion - Boston Celtics leads the desk at 6.0% with $336K traded.
Lead stories
LeBron James breaks a Shohei Ohtani record
LeBron James breaks a Shohei Ohtani record. Stephen A . Smith thanks Shaq for saving him from NBA Countdown. New York Knicks Championship Way sign up for auction.
Sources: thebiglead.com, awfulannouncing.com, abc7ny.com
Reds release schedule for 2027 regular season
Reds release schedule for 2027 regular season. Buy Tickets for Brewers vs . Pirates on July 12. Buy Tickets for Brewers vs . Pirates on July 12.
Sources: ,
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.7% with $163K traded.
Lead stories
Gebr . Heinemann unveils supplier carbon programme
Gebr . Heinemann unveils supplier carbon programme. Tata Power Begins ₹5 , 750 Crore 800 MW Wind & Solar Energy Project In Andhra Pradesh. BluPine Energy Strengthens Rajasthan C & I Portfolio with Multiple Renewable Power Agreements ; Targets 150MW Commerc....
Sources: trbusiness.com, freepressjournal.in, thehindu.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
97.9%
$2K
Sources: express.co.uk, deccanchronicle.com, bssnews.net
Slow living , spicy flavors in Chengdu resonate with Korean travelers
Slow living , spicy flavors in Chengdu resonate with Korean travelers. On the Escalation Ladder to Nuclear War : Where Are the Responsible Figures ?. Short 1983 cartoon clip laid it all out . Racial and civil wars , genetic editing , Industrial revolution , AI rulers....
Sources: koreatimes.co.kr, larouchepub.com, investmentwatchblog.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 25.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 25.0% | $2M
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 79.0% | $288K
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?) | 14.0% | $238K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 9.0% | $152K
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Top volume & odds: Abdul El-Sayed | 96.0% | $107K
Popular events
12.7%
0.0pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $682M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $674M0%
Fed holds rate steady despite dissents over high inflation | The Asahi Shimbun : Breaking News , Japan News and Analysis. Trump stands by Warsh despite Fed rate hold. Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight - Boston News , Weather , S....
Sources: asahi.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, whdh.com
Commonwealth Fusion Systems Raises Another $1 Billion , Bringing Total Capital Raised to $4 Billion
Commonwealth Fusion Systems Raises Another $1 Billion , Bringing Total Capital Raised to $4 Billion. Jersey Mike IPO : ( JMKE ) starts trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Second - Largest Liquor Distributor In The Us Files For Bankruptcy.
Sources: prnewswire.com, cnbc.com, wflaorlando.iheart.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - No change at 45.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 67.0% | $933K
Top volume & odds: Largest Company end of July? | 73.0% | $533K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $95 | 1.1% | $211K
Top odds: ↑ $85 | 85.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 89.3% | $66K
Popular events
Vol $933K
Vol $533K
Tech Tonic | Big AI keeps making the same mistake about Chinese AI companies. Sarvam is building 1T AI model , hires Elon Musk xAI expert to take on OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI Slashes GPT - 5 . 6 Luna Price By 80 % As China Cheaper Models Close In.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, digit.in, zerohedge.com
BofA extends loan to OpenAI ahead of IPO , Reuters source says
BofA extends loan to OpenAI ahead of IPO , Reuters source says. Sam Altman Called Any OpenAI IPO Valuation Below $1 Trillion a Nonstarter . Should Investors Prefer OpenAI or SpaceX ?. How to Get Exposure to OpenAI Before Its IPO.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, fool.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T at 16.0% with $30K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T
Trading at 16.0% with $30K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 16.0% | $30K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 86.0%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 23.5% | $5K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 19.0% | $2K
Top volume: 1.25T–1.5T | 3.1% | $2K
Top odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 82.0%
Top volume & odds: SHEIN | 90.7% | $680
Popular events
Sources: businesstoday.in, koimoi.com, koimoi.com
AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 7 : 08 p . m . EDT
AP Entertainment SummaryBrief at 7 : 08 p . m . EDT. Ekiti Arts Festival to Boost Jobs , Attract Investments. CJP praises Ayesha Khan for showing solidarity with students and joining Mumbai protests.
Sources: smdailyjournal.com, punchng.com, hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30 at 1.2% with $152K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - September 30
Trading at 1.2% with $152K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 1.2% | $152K
Top odds: December 31 | 7.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 11.0% | $14K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 86.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 51.0% | $10K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $9K
Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?
Top volume & odds: Max Martin | 69.3% | $3K
The CLARITY Act Is Moving Again in the Senate . Here What Passage Would Change for Coinbase and Robinhood .. Crypto for Advisors : Is the Clarity Act dead ?. Senators said to strike idea to toughen Trump concession on Clarity Act crypto limits.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, coindesk.com
Cryptocurrencies : Bitcoin Inches Down 4 % This Week
Cryptocurrencies : Bitcoin Inches Down 4 % This Week. After Outflows , Advisors Could Fuel Bitcoin Next Move. Bitcoin ETFs On Pace For Smallest Monthly Inflows Ever.
Sources: etftrends.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500 at 2.2% with $340K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in July? - ↑ 67,500.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 28.0% | $325K
Popular events
Real Madrid : Man City reach transfer decision on Rodri joining Jose Mourinho side
Real Madrid : Man City reach transfer decision on Rodri joining Jose Mourinho side. Love Island Gemma Owen and her career now after huge post villa success. Where is Love Island Gemma Owen now as star returns to TV screens ?.
Sources: teamtalk.com, bristolpost.co.uk, dailystar.co.uk
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NBA: 2027 Champion - Boston Celtics at 6.0% with $336K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA: 2027 Champion - Boston Celtics.
Event leaders
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Top volume & odds: Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.0% | $84K
Popular events
NBA: 2027 Champion - Boston Celtics
Vol $336K
Vol $84K
Climate change threatens Nigeria health , security , economy , Academy warns. With 2030 deadline to cut emissions approaching , WA has a long way to go. Q & A : What the EU Carbon Market Review Means for Climate Action.
Sources: tribuneonlineng.com, yahoo.com, cleantechnica.com
Animal Welfare Assessment on the July 24 Davao Flooding
Animal Welfare Assessment on the July 24 Davao Flooding. Friday and Saturday will likely be our hottest days ; a cooling trend by Sunday.
Sources: sunstar.com.ph, ksby.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.7% with $163K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.7% | $163K
Popular events
+$61,062
+$47,014
+$44,498
Kalshi via Jupiter
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