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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $265M across outcomes, with $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Abiy Ahmed" at 96.1%, with top volume on "Gedion Timothewos" at 1.9% and $550 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "25 bps increase" at 57.0% and $353K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Shimelis Abdisa
$0
Highest implied
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
98.5%
Top priced
Clacton by-election Winner - Nigel Farage
98.5%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 21.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
Parliamentary election campaign costs winner K88 . 8m
Parliamentary election campaign costs winner K88 . 8m. US senate leaders reach funding deal to avoid shutdown during campaign season. Tanzania : Is Tanzania President Looking East ?.
Sources: mwnation.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, allafrica.com
Five GOP Senate candidates to face off in televised debate . How to watch
Five GOP Senate candidates to face off in televised debate . How to watch. Republican senator holdouts will now vote to advance Trump Attorney General nomination. Republican senator holdouts will now vote to advance Trump Attorney General nomination.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 57.0% with $353K traded.
Lead stories
The Fed Held Interest Rates Steady for a 2nd Straight Meeting Under Kevin Warsh , With 3 Officials Dissenting . Here.... Underlying Inflation Hits Lowest Level in Years . The Key Price Measures Show Progress Toward the Fed 2 % Target .. The Federal Reserve Just Did Something That No One Witnessed in 56 Years -- and It Has Significant Implications for t....
Sources: fool.com, ibtimes.com, fool.com
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 93.0% with $5K traded.
Lead stories
Opinion | AI boom enters its nasty phase as economic realities set in
Opinion | AI boom enters its nasty phase as economic realities set in. Cathie Wood Doubles Down on Tesla and SpaceX as Wall Street Turns Cautious. SpaceX first results put Musk AI spending under Wall Street microscope.
Sources: scmp.com, finance.yahoo.com, tribune.com.pk
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 2.0% with $37K traded.
Lead stories
Exercise your authority as a believer - The Standard
Exercise your authority as a believer - The Standard. 5 Biblical Reasons to Not Be Afraid if Were in the End Times - Topical Studies. Readers and writers : Klecko lengthy art meditation nears its launch , and more to read – Twin Cities.
Sources: thestandard.co.zw, biblestudytools.com, twincities.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 26.0% with $60K traded.
Lead stories
CLARITY Act Failure May Send Crypto Valuations Lower : Bernstein
CLARITY Act Failure May Send Crypto Valuations Lower : Bernstein. CLARITY Act Make - or - Break Week Arrives : What Happening ?. Bernstein warns Clarity Act failure could spark another crypto selloff.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, benzinga.com, coindesk.com
Circle bought 1 , 000 IBM blockchain patents . Nothing good can come of that
Circle bought 1 , 000 IBM blockchain patents . Nothing good can come of that. The Widow Son and the Genesis Block.
B7
Lead market: Team Liquid leads the desk at 66.0% with $241K traded.
Lead stories
Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future
Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future. Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future. Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future.
Sources: russiaherald.com, europesun.com, vietnamtribune.com
Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future
Quarterfinal matches set at Games of the Future.
Sources: malaysiasun.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $27K traded.
Lead stories
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
Hantavirus doesnt linger , requires close contact : Officials – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Weather tracker : Austria breaks heat records as Japan braces for Typhoon Dolphin
Weather tracker : Austria breaks heat records as Japan braces for Typhoon Dolphin. Weather tracker : Austria breaks heat records as Japan braces for Typhoon Dolphin. Backlog revealed of more than 60 delayed climate - action initiatives.
Sources: theguardian.com, aol.co.uk,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.4%
$41
Sources: yahoo.com, wcti12.com, katu.com
MFA : Iran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz immediately after reaching agreement with Oman
MFA : Iran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz immediately after reaching agreement with Oman. Britain 2027 Money Warning : How a Closed Strait of Hormuz Could Hit Your Wallet. Iran says holding no talks with US , working with Oman to establish temporary route via Hormuz.
Sources: news.am, ibtimes.co.uk, aa.com.tr
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 21.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 21.0% | $2M
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Tucker Carlson | 1.6% | $800K
Top odds: J.D. Vance | 46.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 25.0% | $367K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Top volume: Wes Moore | 1.6% | $318K
Top odds: Gavin Newsom | 19.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?) | 8.0% | $262K
14.7%
+0.7pp
$12M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $684M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $676M0%
Falling gas prices cut U . S . inflation in June but Iran worries remain. Fed officials deeply divided over future path of US inflation. Kevin Warsh Has Grand Ambitions for the Fed , But a Family Fight Stands in His Way.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, wbaltv.com, fool.com
How China Became the Ultimate Swing Oil Buyer
How China Became the Ultimate Swing Oil Buyer. President Mahama directs Energy Minister to consider paying for Ghana crude oil for TOR using cedis instead of dollars. India Imports of Russian Crude Hit New High in July.
Sources: oilprice.com, graphic.com.gh, oilprice.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase at 57.0% with $353K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 25 bps increase | 57.0% | $353K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 88.8% | $71K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume: ↓ $60 | 4.2% | $20K
Top odds: ↓ $75 | 74.0%
Popular events
HBO Max Shorts Uses Scene - Level AI to Turn Buried Catalog Titles Into Your Next Binge.
Sources: techtimes.com
DeepSeek new AI model cheapest among leading models , says research firm
DeepSeek new AI model cheapest among leading models , says research firm. DeepSeek new AI model is by far the cheapest of well - known models to run , research firm says. DeepSeek new AI model is by far the cheapest of well - known models to run , research firm says.
Sources: geo.tv, finance.yahoo.com, asiaone.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 93.0% with $5K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 93.0% | $5K
Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
Top volume & odds: Paramount | 69.0% | $3K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Nebius Group | 7.0% | $2K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 41.0%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
Top volume & odds: $800B | 82.0% | $524
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 84.0% | $491
Toy Story 5 Worldwide Box Office : Surpasses Toy Story 3 To Achieve Two New Milestones In One Weekend. The Odyssey IMAX Box Office : Fastest Ever To Cross $200M , Overtakes Avengers : Endgame & More To Break Into All - T.... The Odyssey Worldwide Box Office : Crosses $900M Milestone & Emerges As Christopher Nolan 4th Highest - Grossing Film....
Sources: koimoi.com, koimoi.com, koimoi.com
With Fanomenon , K - Pop Biggest Companies See Their Answer To Coachella
With Fanomenon , K - Pop Biggest Companies See Their Answer To Coachella. Korea to hold Coachella - style K - culture festival in 2027. Chicano Hollywood Film Festival Returns to Pomona with Packed 5 - Day Program.
Sources: forbes.com, koreaherald.com, manilatimes.net
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 2.0% with $37K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $37K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 90.0% | $24K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume: September 30 | 1.9% | $14K
Top odds: December 31 | 6.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 55.0% | $12K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 3 | 2.1% | $4K
Top odds: 1 | 53.0%
Sources: fortune.com, newswire.co.nz
Strategy Sells 1 , 638 Bitcoin , Funds Dividends and Buybacks
Strategy Sells 1 , 638 Bitcoin , Funds Dividends and Buybacks. Bitcoin price crosses $63 , 600 , then eases as traders assess US - Iran geopolitical risks. American Bitcoin Q2 Earnings Loom Eric Trump Bitcoin Accumulation Play Faces Investor Scrutiny ABTC Sto.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, moneycontrol.com, benzinga.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 26.0% with $60K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 26.0% | $60K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 5.5% | $53K
Popular events
2026 Ballon dOr : 4 former winners that will lose out on award this year
2026 Ballon dOr : 4 former winners that will lose out on award this year. Ballon dOr 2026 power rankings : Kane leads race as key dates , shortlist timeline emerge. Cristiano Ronaldo sets drama debut with Matthew Vaughn , Damian Lewis.
Sources: dailypost.ng, vanguardngr.com, philstar.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Team Liquid at 66.0% with $241K traded.
Top volume remains in Team Liquid.
Event leaders
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs
Top volume & odds: Team Liquid | 66.0% | $241K
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs
Top volume & odds: Rune Eaters | 90.0% | $219K
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Atlético Madrid | 2.4% | $56K
Top odds: Paris Saint-Germain | 15.0%
Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion
Top volume: Kansas City Chiefs | 13.0% | $33K
Top odds: Baltimore Ravens | 18.0%
Popular events
UHERO study reveals progress , persistent challenges for Maui wildfire survivors
UHERO study reveals progress , persistent challenges for Maui wildfire survivors.
Sources: hawaiinewsnow.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $27K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $27K
Popular events
+$4,059
+$788
+$706
Kalshi via Jupiter
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