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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.4% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 55.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 44.0% and $900K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
NFL Champion 2027 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$0
Highest implied
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner - United Russia (ER)
98.9%
Top priced
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner - United Russia (ER)
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: August 31 leads the desk at 3.4% with $363K traded.
Lead stories
Iran presses for war compensation , says Hormuz will reopen if no interference by third party
Iran presses for war compensation , says Hormuz will reopen if no interference by third party. Iranian Parliament Committee Approves Bill Barring US , Israeli Ships From Hormuz. Not discussing such details at this stage : Iran Foreign Ministry on Hormuz transit fees amid talks with Oman.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, globalsecurity.org, news.webindia123.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 44.0% with $900K traded.
Lead stories
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Refused to Give Forward Guidance for 2 Straight Meetings . Here Why That Should Worry M.... New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Has Refused to Give Forward Guidance for 2 Straight Meetings . Here Why That Should Worry M.... US Stock Market : Weak July jobs data dents expectations for September Fed rate hike.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic leads the desk at 94.0% with $11K traded.
Lead stories
FOBI AI Inc . Announces Reinstatement to Trading on TSX Venture Exchange and Other Corporate Updates
FOBI AI Inc . Announces Reinstatement to Trading on TSX Venture Exchange and Other Corporate Updates. FOBI AI Inc . Announces Reinstatement to Trading on TSX Venture Exchange and Other Corporate Updates.
Sources: manilatimes.net, thestarphoenix.com
Tech leaders say AI means less work - their staff say they work up to 90 hours a week
Tech leaders say AI means less work - their staff say they work up to 90 hours a week. Meta , OpenAI , Google and other AI companies are learning from your chats . Here how to stop it. Who is the Israeli startup behind the AI security testing breach ?.
B5
Lead market: Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...? - August 17 leads the desk at 16.0% with $315K traded.
Lead stories
If you drove yourself mad building computers in Minecraft , Pight redstone - inspired puzzling is an affordable palat.... Halo Big Budget PS5 Remake Battered by Basic Black Ops Ports in Official PS Store Charts. Uniqlo Sweet Mario Kart World T - Shirts Are Now Available.
Sources: rockpapershotgun.com, pushsquare.com, nintendolife.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 25.0% with $387K traded.
Lead stories
Disappointing Crypto Advocates React to Delay in CLARITY Vote
Disappointing Crypto Advocates React to Delay in CLARITY Vote. Trump Says Crypto Is a Big Deal , People Are Paying With Bitcoin. Prediction : This Cryptocurrency Could Go Parabolic After the 2026 Midterm Elections.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
1 Popular Cryptocurrency Cathie Wood Ark Invest Sees Surging 1 , 823 %
1 Popular Cryptocurrency Cathie Wood Ark Invest Sees Surging 1 , 823 %. Bitcoin ( BTC ) Price Prediction : BTC Nears Major Supply Zone as Bulls Target a Break Above $65K. After a $130 Million Hack of Coldcard , Money Is Flowing Into Bitcoin ETFs . Here the Best Bitcoin ETF to Buy Right N....
B7
Lead market: NBA: 2027 Champion - Toronto Raptors leads the desk at 3.8% with $85K traded.
Lead stories
NBA Slam Dunk champion , G - League MVP , set to join overseas team owned by Marc Gasol
NBA Slam Dunk champion , G - League MVP , set to join overseas team owned by Marc Gasol. The NBA scoring champion quiz. 2026 - 27 NBA Schedule Release Timeline Teased in New Rumors.
Sources: thebiglead.com, yardbarker.com, bleacherreport.com
Aaron Donald latest workout clips show that retired star could return to Rams for 2026 season
Aaron Donald latest workout clips show that retired star could return to Rams for 2026 season. NFL Power Rankings , 2026 : Ranking the 5 best offseason moves at quarterback. Mahomes , Parsons and trio of 49ers highlight the NFL stars returning from injuries this season.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.7% with $27K traded.
Lead stories
Trip . com Group Sustainability 2025 : GHG Emissions Fall to 229 , 199 Tonnes as 2050 Net - Zero Strategy Expands. South - east Asia may be ready for this El Nino - but tackling climate risk is still urgent. New tools to help find effective ways to fight climate change.
Sources: greentechlead.com, businesstimes.com.sg, nbcconnecticut.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Iranian president holds 7 - hour meeting with Khamenei : Major discussion points. Iranian Journalism : An Introduction to a National Paradigm / A Note by Dr Abolfazl Fateh – Shafaqna English. Trump says US will seek war compensation from Iran in future talks.
Sources: albawaba.com, en.shafaqna.com, samaa.tv
I feel like Ive been drinking out of a fire hose : Graham discusses senate transition
I feel like Ive been drinking out of a fire hose : Graham discusses senate transition. Feud Escalation : Fetterman Slams El - Sayed Weird Little Man Syndrome Energy – RedState. I feel like Ive been drinking out of a fire hose : Graham discusses senate transition.
Sources: wlos.com, redstate.com, kfdm.com
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Top volume & odds: August 31 | 3.4% | $363K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: August 15 | 11.0% | $264K
Top odds: December 31 | 78.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $153K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: August 15 | 96.0% | $103K
Top volume & odds: Mojtaba Khamenei | 81.0% | $103K
Popular events
Vol $363K
14.8%
-0.3pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $687M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $680M0%
Futures Erase Overnight Gains As Oil Hits One - Week High , Yen Slides.
Sources: zerohedge.com
Global Oil Prices surge as Hormuz Uncertainty grips global markets
Global Oil Prices surge as Hormuz Uncertainty grips global markets. Oman oil price drops by $1 . 72 to $77 . 44 per barrel. Trump calls out Exxon and Chevron for making too much money ( USO : NYSEARCA ).
Sources: en.dailypakistan.com.pk, timesofoman.com, seekingalpha.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase at 44.0% with $900K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will GameStop acquire eBay?) | 10.0% | $339K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $85 | 67.0% | $91K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 47.0% | $75K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 59.0% | $66K
Popular events
MAI - Cyber - 1 - Flash : Efficient Vulnerability Detection
MAI - Cyber - 1 - Flash : Efficient Vulnerability Detection. CapCut Design Studio Levels Up : New Skills Ecosystem and Seedream 5 . 0 Pro Model Bring Pro - Grade AI Design to Eve.... Common Crawl Published A Manual For Being Visible To AI , I Automated It.
Sources: dynamicbusiness.com, manilatimes.net, searchenginejournal.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic at 94.0% with $11K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic
Trading at 94.0% with $11K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 94.0% | $11K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.5T | 22.0% | $8K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 84.0%
Funke Akindele Unveils Star - Studded Cast for New Movie The. DC Box Office Collection Day 3 : Lokesh Kanagaraj Starrer Earns Rs 24 . 11 Crore In India , Crosses Rs 31 Crore Mark.... What on in Busan : Aug . 10 - 16 | Stripes Korea.
Sources: punchng.com, newsx.com, korea.stripes.com
How to get Manchester tickets for £16 for Jesus Christ Superstar starring Sam Ryder
How to get Manchester tickets for £16 for Jesus Christ Superstar starring Sam Ryder. If indeed one ought to call him a man : New study shows historical Jesus had bigger impact than we thought. Do Jews Believe in Jesus ? - Explore the Bible.
Sources: manchestereveningnews.co.uk, theblaze.com, biblestudytools.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...? - August 17 at 16.0% with $315K traded.
Top volume remains in Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...? - August 17.
Lead event
Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...? - August 17
Trading at 16.0% with $315K in volume.
Event leaders
Kai and Speed beat Minecraft challenge by...?
Top volume & odds: August 17 | 16.0% | $315K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 5.0% | $209K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.1% | $14K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 92.0% | $2K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume: 3 | 2.2% | $1K
Top odds: 1 | 62.0%
Sources: fool.com, bravenewcoin.com, fool.com
Bitcoin rises 3 . 28 % in a week , holds near $65 , 000 as ETF inflows strengthen
Bitcoin rises 3 . 28 % in a week , holds near $65 , 000 as ETF inflows strengthen. Strategy Continues To Sell Bitcoin And Common Stock. Hedge Funds Made Their Rarest Bitcoin Bet in Years , But 2 Charts Say Wait.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 25.0% with $387K traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 25.0% | $387K
Popular events
Sources: hitc.com, nflspinzone.com, tsn.ca
Barcelona make move on Rodri , Man City hold him tight
Barcelona make move on Rodri , Man City hold him tight. Enzo Maresca expects Rodri back in Manchester next week amid transfer rumours.
Sources: timesofoman.com, con-telegraph.ie
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NBA: 2027 Champion - Toronto Raptors at 3.8% with $85K traded.
Top volume remains in NBA: 2027 Champion - Toronto Raptors.
Event leaders
Popular events
Typhoon Dolphin weakens but disrupts travel in east China. Typhoon Dolphin Weakens but Disrupts Travel in East China. Typhoon Dolphin weakens but disrupts travel in east China.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, english.aawsat.com, arynews.tv
Typhoon Dolphin weakens but disrupts travel in east China
Typhoon Dolphin weakens but disrupts travel in east China. Typhoon Dolphin weakens but disrupts travel in east China. Lozère wildfire forces evacuations in southern France amid summer heat risks.
Sources: freemalaysiatoday.com, bssnews.net, sana.sy
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.7% with $27K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.7% | $27K
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑3k | 96.0% | $670
Popular events
+$3,336
+$2,864
+$2,573
Kalshi via Jupiter
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