Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?" Event volume totals $3M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "December 31, 2026" at 2.6% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 71.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 29.0% and $177K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...? - December 31, 2026
$0
Highest implied
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? - August 31, 2026
98.7%
Top priced
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? - August 31, 2026
98.7%
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes leads the desk at 7.0% with $324K traded.
Lead stories
Donald Trump Calls Strait of Hormuz NEW US Territory ; Iran Keeps Waterway Shut
Donald Trump Calls Strait of Hormuz NEW US Territory ; Iran Keeps Waterway Shut. Trump shares image depicting Strait of Hormuz as US territory. Some dreams are too far from reality : Iran mocks Trump Hormuz claims with map.
Sources: oneindia.com, aa.com.tr, livemint.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 29.0% with $177K traded.
Lead stories
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again
Fed seen sticking to policy - rate hold , for now , as inflation eases again. The Upcoming Inflation Report Is a Big Deal for the Fed . Here What Economists Expect .. US Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflation data.
Sources: kitco.com, ibtimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic leads the desk at 97.8% with $35K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceXAI releases flagship Grok 4 . 6 model with advanced reasoning capabilities
SpaceXAI releases flagship Grok 4 . 6 model with advanced reasoning capabilities. Anthropic $6 Billion Deal Talks With Decart Show Focus on Cost Efficiency. Move Over , SpaceX : Anthropic Targets a $2 Trillion Valuation.
Sources: siliconangle.com, finance.yahoo.com, fool.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.7% with $316K traded.
Lead stories
Expectations High as Funke Akindele Sets Another December Film Release Titled The Four – THISDAYLIVE
Expectations High as Funke Akindele Sets Another December Film Release Titled The Four – THISDAYLIVE. IFFM 2026 opens in Melbourne with Rishab Shetty , Dulquer Salmaan. Taiwan picks A Foggy Tale for Oscars.
Sources: thisdaylive.com, dailypioneer.com, taipeitimes.com
Spider - Man : Brand New Day Passes $2 Billion Worldwide , Wins Again
Spider - Man : Brand New Day Passes $2 Billion Worldwide , Wins Again. Spider - Man : Tom Holland Salary for Brand New Day MCU Movie Is Absolutely Massive. Spider - Man 4 Writers Finally Address if Anne Hathaway MCU Villain Rumors Were True.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000 leads the desk at 22.0% with $265K traded.
Lead stories
Current price of Bitcoin for Aug . 11 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for Aug . 11 , 2026. It Going Significantly Higher BlackRock Just Quietly Called The Bitcoin Price Bottom. They Wont Stop Printing The Real $1 . 8 Trillion Reason Why The Fed Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Massive Bitcoin....
Sources: fortune.com, forbes.com, forbes.com
PYMNTS | Large Holders Pour $2 . 75 Billion into Bitcoin After Months of Selling
PYMNTS | Large Holders Pour $2 . 75 Billion into Bitcoin After Months of Selling. Growing $1 . 8 Trillion Panic Fears Could Be About To Blow Up The Bitcoin Price. Bitcoin Could Be Headed For A 30 % Move . The Big Question Is Which Way ..
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane leads the desk at 61.0% with $126K traded.
Lead stories
Enzo Fernadez : Chelsea set deadline for Man City for offers for Argentine
Enzo Fernadez : Chelsea set deadline for Man City for offers for Argentine. Football Daily - Karel Prince : Lie Detector - Fenners. 2026 Ballon dOr : 4 former winners that will lose out on award this year.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bbc.co.uk, dailypost.ng
Barcelona land Rodrigo Hernandez on four - year deal | The Peninsula Qatar
Barcelona land Rodrigo Hernandez on four - year deal | The Peninsula Qatar. Man Utd forced into kit change before season has started to avoid rule break.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $15K traded.
Lead stories
SCHOTT Updates its Climate Targets – SBTi Validates Emissions Reduction Path - Environment / Recycle - SCHOTT North A.... SCHOTT Updates its Climate Targets – SBTi Validates Emissions Reduction Path - Environment / Recycle - SCHOTT North A.... Q & A : What Does China 15th Five - Year Plan for Coal Mean for Climate Action ?.
Sources: newswiretoday.com, newswiretoday.com, cleantechnica.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$58K
Who won Florida primary for U . S . House , Senate ? See election results. Kenya : Kalonzo Questions Smartmatic Suitability for 2027 Election. Osun Election : Dangote , Akpabio called me to delete my tweet - Davido.
Sources: yahoo.com, allafrica.com, dailypost.ng
Clock is moving : US sanctions pose a threat to Iran economy , analyst says
Clock is moving : US sanctions pose a threat to Iran economy , analyst says. Clock is moving : US sanctions pose a threat to Iran economy , analyst says.
Sources: komonews.com, wcti12.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes at 7.0% with $324K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes
Trading at 7.0% with $324K in volume.
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
73.0%
+1.0pp
$272K
+3%
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 7.0% | $324K
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 73.0% | $272K
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Top volume & odds: Yes (US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?) | 1.4% | $236K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: August 22 | 1.7% | $206K
Top odds: December 31 | 69.4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $129K
14.0%
-0.9pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $689M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $687M0%
Donald Trump Calls Strait of Hormuz NEW US Territory ; Iran Keeps Waterway Shut. Trump shares image depicting Strait of Hormuz as US territory. Some dreams are too far from reality : Iran mocks Trump Hormuz claims with map.
Sources: oneindia.com, aa.com.tr, livemint.com
Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee says inflation is Fed top problem
Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee says inflation is Fed top problem. Markets bet on a pause for September , but Fed hawks may not be swayed ahead of Jackson Hole. US rates likely to stay higher for longer , squeezing consumers.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, finance.yahoo.com, tribune.com.pk
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase at 29.0% with $177K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 36.0% | $116K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 51.0% | $47K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume & odds: ↑ $90 | 47.0% | $37K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 86.0% | $30K
Popular events
Elon Musk SpaceXAI Enters The Big League With Grok 4 . 6 , Offering Fable 5 - Level Performance At An 80 Percent Disc.... AI Industry Red & Yellow Flags - CleanTechnica. SpaceX Just Unveiled Grok 4 . 6 . Musk Calls it Objectively # 1 In AI . Anthropic , OpenAI and This Stock May Be in T....
Sources: wccftech.com, cleantechnica.com, finance.yahoo.com
GPT - 5 . 6 News | Latest OpenAI Updates
GPT - 5 . 6 News | Latest OpenAI Updates. SpaceXAI Launches Grok 4 . 6 , Matching GPT - 5 . 6 Sol on AI Index. AI Models : Google Gemini 3 . 7 Flash , OpenAI Ultrafast , DeepSeek V4 - Pro.
Sources: newsnow.co.uk, iclarified.com, heise.de
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic at 97.8% with $35K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has best AI model end of August? - Anthropic
Trading at 97.8% with $35K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 97.8% | $35K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.75T | 84.0% | $17K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 97.6%
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 22.0% | $3K
Sources: bleedingcool.com, comingsoon.net, comingsoon.net
Cornelius Chapel : Born again. Vermont church elder faces child pornography charges. Bob Tamasy : Overcoming The Enemies Of Contentment.
Sources: vintonjacksoncourier.com, wcax.com, chattanoogan.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.7% with $316K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.7% with $316K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.7% | $316K
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
Top volume: 900m+ | 48.8% | $25K
Top odds: 800 - 900m | 53.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $16K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 7.0% | $13K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 93.0%
Top volume & odds: Bad Bunny | 90.0% | $7K
Sources: pymnts.com, forbes.com, ibtimes.com
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end. SEC Proposes New Crypto Rules in Absence of CLARITY Act. SEC Cancels Key Crypto Regulatory Meeting.
Sources: americanbanker.com, cointelegraph.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000 at 22.0% with $265K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 45,000.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 21.0% | $58K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 3.3% | $56K
Popular events
Uganda : NBS Sport Unveils Dedicated Premier League Platform Ahead of New Season
Uganda : NBS Sport Unveils Dedicated Premier League Platform Ahead of New Season. Premier League to Publish Referee , VAR Explanations. CCEP ( CCEP ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.
Sources: allafrica.com, punchng.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane at 61.0% with $126K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Harry Kane.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 61.0% | $126K
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Inter Milan | 2.3% | $112K
Top odds: Barcelona | 18.0%
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Tampa Bay Rays | 7.5% | $8K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 33.0%
Popular events
RCBC named best domestic bank for sustainable finance. Feds move to repeal EV sales mandate without new stringent emission rules in place – Winnipeg Free Press. Tetra Pak US & Canada : FY25 Sustainability Report Supplement.
Sources: manilatimes.net, winnipegfreepress.com, 3blmedia.com
Planned US Data Centers Set to Produce 24M Car Worth Of Carbon Dioxide
Planned US Data Centers Set to Produce 24M Car Worth Of Carbon Dioxide. The Very Trumpy State That Leads the Country in Renewable Energy - Governor Wind Energy Coalition. WuXi Biologics Recognized for Industry Top Sustainable Biopharma Practices Empowering the Industry Transformation Thr....
Sources: cnet.com, governorswindenergycoalition.org, prnewswire.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $15K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $15K
Popular events
+$6,517
+$5,879
+$3,753
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
Leaderboard