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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $689M across outcomes, with $396K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "J.D. Vance" at 47.4%, with top volume on "Donald Trump" at 2.2% and $21K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 72.0%, with top volume on "25 bps decrease" at 1.4% and $945K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 - Ron DeSantis
$0
Highest implied
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.25T
98.6%
Top priced
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$1.25T
98.6%
Volume leaders
B1
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes leads the desk at 6.0% with $821K traded.
Lead stories
Donald Trump says will declare Strait of Hormuz US territory , Iran hits back
Donald Trump says will declare Strait of Hormuz US territory , Iran hits back. Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet or election speech : Iran hits back at Trump US territory remark. Iran Hormuz authority denies Trump claims of control over strait : What to know - AL - MONITOR : The Middle Eastʼs le....
Sources: hindustantimes.com, news.webindia123.com, al-monitor.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease leads the desk at 1.4% with $945K traded.
Lead stories
Fed Up A - List Actor Announces Break From Hollywood After Starring In Massive 2026 Box Office Disaster. PYMNTS | Blockchain Group Asks for Review of Denial of Master Account. What flat PPI numbers tell advisors about the Fed next move.
Sources: boredpanda.com, pymnts.com, investmentnews.com
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$5.0T leads the desk at 6.9% with $86K traded.
Lead stories
Korea First Sovereign AI Appliance Ships : Domestic Chip , Domestic LLM , One Server
Korea First Sovereign AI Appliance Ships : Domestic Chip , Domestic LLM , One Server. I use Claude Code without paying a dime to Anthropic. How Cybercriminals Are Weaponizing Frontier AI Models Like Grok.
Sources: techtimes.com, makeuseof.com, forbes.com
Meta faces unprecedented legal battle
Meta faces unprecedented legal battle. BrandPilot AI Inc .: BrandPilot AI Announces Investor Relations Agreement and Completion of Continuance into British.... Meta faces unprecedented legal battle.
B5
Lead market: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? - 900m+ leads the desk at 42.4% with $42K traded.
Lead stories
Box Office : Spider - Man : Brand New Day Pushes MCU Spider - Man Films Past The 800 Crore Milestone In India. Spider - Man Returns To Big Time Era For New Series From All - Star Writer. Marvel Spider - Man 2 New Costume Solves My Biggest Gripe With Brand New Day.
Sources: koimoi.com, screenrant.com, screenrant.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↑ 120,000 leads the desk at 8.0% with $247K traded.
Lead stories
Current price of Bitcoin for Aug . 11 , 2026
Current price of Bitcoin for Aug . 11 , 2026. It Going Significantly Higher BlackRock Just Quietly Called The Bitcoin Price Bottom. They Wont Stop Printing The Real $1 . 8 Trillion Reason Why The Fed Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Massive Bitcoin....
Sources: fortune.com, forbes.com, forbes.com
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , August 14 , 2026 : Crypto prices backing off further
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Friday , August 14 , 2026 : Crypto prices backing off further. Bitcoin Eyes New August Lows As Binance Longs Face A Cleanout. Michael Saylor Strategy Is Selling Bitcoin Again . Here Why Im Still Bullish on Bitcoin ..
B7
Lead market: FC Cincinnati leads the desk at 27.0% with $108K traded.
Lead stories
Rodri joins La Liga champions Barcelona from Manchester City
Rodri joins La Liga champions Barcelona from Manchester City. Rodri joins La Liga champions Barcelona from Manchester City. Not just big in Japan : Zion Suzuki has what it takes to follow Emiliano Martínez.
Sources: namibian.com.na, koreaherald.com, aol.co.uk
Couple ? - Fans are excited after seeing Fernando Mendoza and Alysa Liu embrace on red carpet
Couple ? - Fans are excited after seeing Fernando Mendoza and Alysa Liu embrace on red carpet. Chiefs , Rams , Seahawks Have Most - Optimistic Fans. Chiefs , Rams , Seahawks Have Most - Optimistic Fans | News Radio 103 . 1 and 810 WGY.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.6% with $12K traded.
Lead stories
tropical storm forecast : Super El Niño alert : Pacific ocean temperatures surge past critical limits , altering glob.... Carbon , compliance and credible energy claims. Sustainability trial shows value of living mulch in building resilience.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, esi-africa.com, fwi.co.uk
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.6%
$9
Tinubu Is Son Of Osun Adeleke Reaffirms Support For Tinubu 2027 Re - election. Adeleke reaffirms endorsement of Tinubu for 2027. Ive no regrets over my role in 2015 presidential election – Ex - IGP Suleiman Abba.
Sources: leadership.ng, punchng.com, dailypost.ng
Iran Accuses Qatar of Holding 3 of Its Military Pilots Captive
Iran Accuses Qatar of Holding 3 of Its Military Pilots Captive. Three military pilots held captive in Qatar since March : Iranian media. Qatar rejects reports it detained Iranian pilots.
Sources: theepochtimes.com, aninews.in, yahoo.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes at 6.0% with $821K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? - Yes
Trading at 6.0% with $821K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 6.0% | $821K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: August 31 | 7.0% | $198K
Top odds: December 31 | 69.8%
Top volume & odds: Yes (Xi Jinping out before 2027?) | 4.2% | $175K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $112K
13.7%
-0.3pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $689M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $690M0%
Donald Trump says will declare Strait of Hormuz US territory , Iran hits back. Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet or election speech : Iran hits back at Trump US territory remark. Iran Hormuz authority denies Trump claims of control over strait : What to know - AL - MONITOR : The Middle Eastʼs le....
Sources: hindustantimes.com, news.webindia123.com, al-monitor.com
Lessons from global experience for Sri Lanka inflation target
Lessons from global experience for Sri Lanka inflation target. Fed Hammack says multiple rate hikes may be needed to tame inflation. UK inflation set to rise as AI chip crunch , energy costs add pressure.
Sources: ft.lk, finance.yahoo.com, business-standard.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease at 1.4% with $945K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - 25 bps decrease.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 35.0% | $82K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $105 | 3.6% | $53K
Top odds: ↑ $90 | 42.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 85.5% | $42K
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 50.0% | $41K
Former Bridgewater Investor Raises Money for His AI Startup
Former Bridgewater Investor Raises Money for His AI Startup. Coders Say They Already Found Workarounds to Claude Invisible Watermarks. Anthropic pre - IPO credit facility set to climb past $10 billion.
Sources: businessinsider.com, wired.com, thehindubusinessline.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$5.0T at 6.9% with $86K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$5.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$5.0T
Trading at 6.9% with $86K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$5.0T | 6.9% | $86K
Top odds: ↑$1.25T | 98.6%
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.5% | $34K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 20.0% | $9K
What Does It Mean to Be a Diva ? Inside the Denver Art Museum Most Glamorous Exhibition. Chinese Valentine Day brings fresh releases as box - office competition heats up. X - Ray Spex , The Bodysnatchers , The Slits and more reuniting for first - of - its - kind London punk festival.
Sources: 303magazine.com, globaltimes.cn, shortlist.com
Awarapan 2 Box Office Collection Day 5 : Emraan Hashmi Scores First Rs 100 Crore Solo Film , Worldwide Total Nears Rs.... Scary Movie Sets Paramount+ Release Date on Streaming : How to Watch. 10 under $10 for the week of Aug . 21 - 23.
Sources: newsx.com, variety.com, spokesman.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? - 900m+ at 42.4% with $42K traded.
Top volume remains in "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? - 900m+.
Lead event
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? - 900m+
Trading at 42.4% with $42K in volume.
Event leaders
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
Top volume: 900m+ | 42.4% | $42K
Top odds: 800 - 900m | 59.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.7% | $27K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 32.0% | $17K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 64.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 2.0% | $13K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 6.0% | $10K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 93.0%
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, cointelegraph.com, fool.com
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end
The Clarity Act long stay in legislative limbo needs to end. Trump calls for passage of a key cryptocurrency bill as it falters in the Senate : We need Congress to take the next.... SEC Proposes New Crypto Rules in Absence of CLARITY Act.
Sources: americanbanker.com, morningstar.com, cointelegraph.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↑ 120,000 at 8.0% with $247K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↑ 120,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
Top volume: ↓ 62,500 | 10.3% | $212K
Top odds: ↓ 67,500 | 76.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 24.0% | $108K
Popular events
Sources: hitc.com, kfyi.iheart.com, wgy.iheart.com
Nuggets name new Altitude broadcast team
Nuggets name new Altitude broadcast team. Roger Goodell Comments on an International NFL Team May Be Leverage or Strategy . But Theyre Certainly Wrong .. Rodri fires dig at Arsenal in emotional Man City farewell as Barcelona move confirmed.
Sources: awfulannouncing.com, si.com, aol.co.uk
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by FC Cincinnati at 27.0% with $108K traded.
Top volume remains in FC Cincinnati.
Event leaders
Top volume: Minnesota Timberwolves | 3.7% | $17K
Top odds: Oklahoma City Thunder | 22.0%
Popular events
Vol $108K
EPL: 2027 Champion - Aston Villa
Vol $34K
In 10 questions : What to know about El Nino and its effects
In 10 questions : What to know about El Nino and its effects. Dorset Council launched solar panel and battery scheme. UAE Business : Dewa integrates carbon reduction , biodiversity into infrastructure projects.
Sources: aa.com.tr, dorsetecho.co.uk, gdnonline.com
North East Mayor Kim McGuinness launches new solar energy scheme
North East Mayor Kim McGuinness launches new solar energy scheme. BRICS challenges EU Carbon Border tax , warning of trade barriers for developing economies. Costa Rica Advances Energy Transition with the New Abangares Solar Park ⋆ The Costa Rica News.
Sources: thenorthernecho.co.uk, weeklyblitz.net, thecostaricanews.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.6% with $12K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.6% | $12K
Popular events
+$11,597
+$8,773
+$5,879
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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