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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026". Event volume totals $24M across outcomes, with $34K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Yulia Navalnaya" at 8.0%, with top volume on "Donald Trump" at 1.9% and $15K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 51.0%, with top volume on "No change" at 49.0% and $1M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion - Minnesota Vikings
$0
Highest implied
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner - United Russia (ER)
98.8%
Top priced
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner - United Russia (ER)
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury leads the desk at 1.7% with $411K traded.
Lead stories
Flavio Bolsonaro Pledges to Respect Brazil Election Result
Flavio Bolsonaro Pledges to Respect Brazil Election Result. Echoes of cold war as US accused of meddling in another Brazilian election. Flavio Bolsonaro vows to respect Brazil election outcome.
Sources: econotimes.com, aol.co.uk, freemalaysiatoday.com
Under pressure , Iran lashes out and ramps up rhetoric
Under pressure , Iran lashes out and ramps up rhetoric. Iran fires missiles and drones at Kuwait as strikes resume in war with U . S .. US and allies push IAEA board to report Iran to UN Security Council , diplomats say.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - No change leads the desk at 49.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Trump demands the Fed lower interest rates after a blowout August jobs report
Trump demands the Fed lower interest rates after a blowout August jobs report. Nifty Metal rises 1 . 5 % ahead of US payrolls data ; Tata Steel , Hindustan Zinc among top gainers. Strong jobs report fuels Fed rate hike prospects as Trump escalates rate cut pressure.
Sources: aol.com, moneycontrol.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic leads the desk at 87.0% with $114K traded.
Lead stories
ChatGPT , Claude And Grok Hit Outages At The Same Time
ChatGPT , Claude And Grok Hit Outages At The Same Time. Fortune Tech : Nvidia buys Hugging Face , OpenAI debuts GPT - 6 Astra. Anthropic Has Already Raised $130 Billion Ahead of Its IPO . Here What Potential Investors Need to Know ..
Sources: rttnews.com, fortune.com, fool.com
Moonshot IPO : Chinese AI firm Moonshot files confidentially for Hong Kong IPO
Moonshot IPO : Chinese AI firm Moonshot files confidentially for Hong Kong IPO. Not Nvidia . Not Palantir . This AI Stock Could Have the Most Upside .. AI compute provider Nscale is looking for $3 . 5B in pre - IPO financing.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.8% with $25K traded.
Lead stories
Fowode set to replicate Detty December in Ijebu
Fowode set to replicate Detty December in Ijebu. ENTERTAINMENT LIVE Updates Today : Mirzapur The Movie Hits Screens ; Ranvir Slams Swara Over Jauhar Remark. 20 late summer and fall festivals in Silicon Valley.
Sources: thenationonlineng.net, filmibeat.com, paloaltoonline.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 15.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Could Sept . 15 Open the Institutional DeFi Floodgates ? Former Lawmakers Say CLARITY Act Is the First Step. Workers Over 50 Could Soon Turn Part of Their 401 ( k ) Into a Lifetime Paycheck Without Quitting Their Job. Why the banking industry is spending on a South Texas Democrat competitive race.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, aol.com, finance.yahoo.com
Where Will Bitcoin Be in 2030 ? | The Motley Fool
Where Will Bitcoin Be in 2030 ? | The Motley Fool. 1 Popular Cryptocurrency ARK Invest Expects to Surge by 1 , 480 %. Where Will Bitcoin Be in 2030 ?.
B7
Lead market: 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) - Carlos Alcaraz leads the desk at 43.0% with $143K traded.
Lead stories
FLY BUSINESS CLASS to NYC & 5 - NIGHT PENTHOUSE STAY
FLY BUSINESS CLASS to NYC & 5 - NIGHT PENTHOUSE STAY. Top trainers Alan King and Lucinda Russell named by government for underpaying workers. Han VanderHart and Mialise Carney win 2026 Raz - Shumaker Prairie Schooner Book Prizes.
Sources: rte.ie, aol.co.uk, prairieschooner.unl.edu
Enzo Fernadez : Chelsea set deadline for Man City for offers for Argentine
Enzo Fernadez : Chelsea set deadline for Man City for offers for Argentine. Cristiano Ronaldo : Ten - man Al - Nassr seal dramatic win after Portugal star subbed off. Jorge Messi : Lionel Messi father dies aged 68 after long illness.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.3% with $19K traded.
Lead stories
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections.
Sources: medscape.com
2 people die from measles in Pennsylvania , marking state first deaths in 35 years – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Kill bird claims disguised attack on solar power industry
Kill bird claims disguised attack on solar power industry. Water ministry , EACC partnership to boost Uganda carbon credits. Ottawa issues comprehensive climate report that reflects country physical transformation.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: yahoo.com, adn.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com
Trump says envoys taking plan to end the war to Moscow , Kyiv
Trump says envoys taking plan to end the war to Moscow , Kyiv. Trump says envoys taking plan to end the war to Moscow , Kyiv. Russia Ukraine War Latest Update : Zelensky Proposes Ceasefire Ahead of Trump Envoy Moscow , Kyiv Visits.
Sources: vanguardngr.com, manilatimes.net, newsx.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury at 1.7% with $411K traded.
Top volume remains in Brazil Presidential Election - Augusto Cury.
Event leaders
Top volume: Augusto Cury | 1.7% | $411K
Top odds: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 56.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 15.0% | $180K
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 18.0% | $175K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 2.2% | $149K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: September 7 | 1.1% | $120K
Top odds: December 31 | 60.6%
Popular events
14.4%
—
$27M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $699M
Presidential election
Event volume $702M
Strong U . S . job gains signal Fed hike as Trump levels new rate - cut demand. Fed rate hike back in focus after strong jobs report. Trump threatens trade war if rates arent cut after strong jobs report.
Sources: theglobeandmail.com, aol.com, aol.com
Stock market today : U . S . futures mixed ahead of August jobs report
Stock market today : U . S . futures mixed ahead of August jobs report. US job market rebounds with 162 , 000 new jobs ; the unemployment rate stayed at 4 . 1 %. Hiring burst of 162 , 000 jobs in August puts focus back on inflation.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, wishtv.com, ocregister.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - No change at 49.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 72.0% | $233K
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 93.2% | $220K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 27.0% | $37K
Popular events
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, fool.com, techcrunch.com
OpenAI rolls out GPT - 6 astra model with cyber guardrails
OpenAI rolls out GPT - 6 astra model with cyber guardrails. ChatGPT , Claude and Grok All Went Down on the Same Day. The Anthropic IPO May Be Right Around the Corner . Here What Investors Need to Know ..
Sources: hindustantimes.com, techweez.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic at 87.0% with $114K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic
Trading at 87.0% with $114K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 87.0% | $114K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 57.0% | $109K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 18.2% | $12K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 83.0% | $1K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 96.0%
Popular events
Church of Jesus Christ issues invitation for all to join to hear the word of God. Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music. 2027 elections : No politician is a Messiah , CAN warns supporters - Blueprint Newspapers Limited.
Sources: ksl.com, air1.com, blueprint.ng
Bruno Mars adds fourth Sydney date to The Romantic Tour
Bruno Mars adds fourth Sydney date to The Romantic Tour. Lisa Biggest Solo Records Before the Release of PRESS PLAY. Bruno Mars adds fourth Sydney date to The Romantic Tour.
Sources: geelongadvertiser.com.au, kpopstarz.com, cairnspost.com.au
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.8% with $25K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.8% with $25K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.8% | $25K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.8% | $7K
Top volume & odds: Bad Bunny | 88.0% | $5K
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 3.1% | $5K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 8.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 6.0% | $683
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Popular events
Bitcoin Reclaimed $80 , 000 After Falling Below $78 , 000 . Can It Hold ?
Bitcoin Reclaimed $80 , 000 After Falling Below $78 , 000 . Can It Hold ?. 1 Popular Cryptocurrency ARK Invest Expects to Surge by 1 , 480 %. Strategy Strategy Appears to Have Failed , and the Outlook of MSTR Stock Is Unfavorable.
Sources: 247wallst.com, aol.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 15.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 15.0% | $1M
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 82,500 | 70.0% | $121K
Top odds: ↓ 77,500 | 78.0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 4.5% | $36K
Popular events
Leclerc heads Hamilton in Italian Grand Prix practice
Leclerc heads Hamilton in Italian Grand Prix practice. NASCAR driver Christopher Bell speaks on new championship format. A Race Is Never Won Alone : With La Tavolata , Barilla Brings the Paddock Family Together on the Monza Grid.
Sources: morningstaronline.co.uk, wyff4.com, montrealgazette.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) - Carlos Alcaraz at 43.0% with $143K traded.
Top volume remains in 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) - Carlos Alcaraz.
Event leaders
2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Top volume & odds: Carlos Alcaraz | 43.0% | $143K
Top volume & odds: Harry Kane | 67.1% | $37K
2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
Top volume: Jessica Pegula | 9.2% | $21K
Top odds: Aryna Sabalenka | 25.0%
Popular events
Sources: usa.chinadaily.com.cn, observer.ug, theglobeandmail.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 3.3% with $19K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 3.3% | $19K
Popular events
+$9,038
+$3,011
+$2,211
Kalshi via Jupiter
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