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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Alberta join the US?" Event volume totals $2M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Alberta join the US?)" at 2.2% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in September?" Highest implied odds are for "25 bps increase" at 89.0%, with top volume on "No change" at 12.0% and $7M 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Fed Decision in September? - No change
$7M
Highest implied
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Abiy Ahmed
98.8%
Top priced
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Abiy Ahmed
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) leads the desk at 76.0% with $257K traded.
Lead stories
Postal Service Failed to Properly Handle Some Primary Election Ballots , Audit Finds ProPublica
Postal Service Failed to Properly Handle Some Primary Election Ballots , Audit Finds ProPublica. Trump lost 23 legal battles over voter data . Now DOJ is demanding election officials hand it over. Texas Supreme Court blocks Galveston County from using districts redrawn after the primaries.
Sources: propublica.org, independent.co.uk, click2houston.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in September? - No change leads the desk at 12.0% with $7M traded.
Lead stories
Should you wait until after the September Fed meeting to invest in gold ?
Should you wait until after the September Fed meeting to invest in gold ?. Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it. Small CPI surprise could trigger big Fed rate decision.
Sources: cbsnews.com, timesleader.com, finance.yahoo.com
Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures
Fed Meets Next Week To Confront Rising Inflation Pressures. UBS raises Fed interest - rate forecast to two hikes in 2026. JPMorgan & Wall Street Giant Estimates on US CPI Inflation , Will Crypto Market Recover ?.
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic leads the desk at 96.1% with $19K traded.
Lead stories
BigBear . ai vs . IonQ : Weighing Whether to Invest in the Artificial Intelligence Company or the Quantum Computing G....
Sources: fool.com
US Authorities Accuse Chinese AI Companies Of Industrial - Scale Campaigns To Copy American Models
US Authorities Accuse Chinese AI Companies Of Industrial - Scale Campaigns To Copy American Models. US Agencies Accuse China - Based AI Firms Of Maliciou Copying Of American Models. US Agencies Accuse China - Based AI Firms of Maliciou Copying of American Models.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.0% with $74K traded.
Lead stories
UrbanFest 360 returns to Orlando with Chadwick Boseman tribute
UrbanFest 360 returns to Orlando with Chadwick Boseman tribute. Entertainment Live Updates Today ( September 11 , 2026 ): Haiwaan Hits Theatres ; Mirzapur The Movie Crosses ₹200 Cro.... Hollywood Biggest Film Festival Bets , From Flops to $500M Hits.
Sources: wftv.com, filmibeat.com, observer.com
B6
Lead market: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 7.0% with $1M traded.
Lead stories
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges CLARITY Act Passage after Senate Returns
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges CLARITY Act Passage after Senate Returns. PYMNTS | Clarity Act Faces Sept . 15 Make - or - Break Vote in Senate. Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges Senate to Pass Clarity Act – NaturalNews . com.
Sources: cointelegraph.com, pymnts.com, naturalnews.com
B7
Lead market: NFL Champion 2027 - Denver Broncos leads the desk at 2.8% with $120K traded.
Lead stories
Former NFL RB LeShon Johnson Sentenced To 5 Years In Prison For Operating Large - Scale Dogfighting Ring. CB Nate Burleson Drew TV Inspiration from Fellow Vikings WR Ahmad Rashad. When the College Football Stars Played NFL Champs.
Sources: dailycaller.com, vikings.com, history.com
Women Ballon dOr : Alessia Russo and Alex Greenwood nominated
Women Ballon dOr : Alessia Russo and Alex Greenwood nominated. Cristiano Ronaldo : Ten - man Al - Nassr seal dramatic win after Portugal star subbed off. Ballon dOr : He outstanding - Spain coach De la Fuente picks player who should win 2026 award.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k leads the desk at 87.0% with $32K traded.
Lead stories
Farming and food unprepared for global warming , says advisory council
Farming and food unprepared for global warming , says advisory council. EBRD backs landmark wind power project in North Macedonia. Climate Overshoot Report : What It Means for Africa and How Faster Action Can Limit the Damage.
Sources: irishtimes.com, ebrd.com, downtoearth.org.in
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
98.7%
$2K
Several people injured in sword attack in Fagersta , Sweden. Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote , poll shows. Girl , 17 , killed in sword attack at Swedish school.
Sources: jpost.com, straitstimes.com, canberratimes.com.au
China rejects Trump Economic D - Day against Iran , says sanctions wont solve crisis
China rejects Trump Economic D - Day against Iran , says sanctions wont solve crisis. Democrats could motivate voters in the 2026 midterms – if they focus on Trump Iran quagmire and its economic conseque....
Sources: moneycontrol.com, naturalnews.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER) at 76.0% with $257K traded.
Top volume remains in Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER).
Lead event
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - United Russia (ER)
Trading at 76.0% with $257K in volume.
Event leaders
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Top volume & odds: United Russia (ER) | 76.0% | $257K
Top volume: Ulf Kristersson | 12.0% | $187K
Top odds: Magdalena Andersson | 88.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 17.0% | $156K
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Top volume & odds: September 30 | 97.4% | $155K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?) | 1.4% | $122K
16.8%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $704M
Presidential election
Event volume $706M
Sources: aol.com, aol.com, finance.yahoo.com
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect
Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect. This is the test : All eyes on US Fed to tackle high inflation. FOMC September 2026 Odds of Rate Hike Surge Over 60 %.
Sources: cnbc.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in September? - No change at 12.0% with $7M traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in September? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Fed rate hike in 2026?) | 95.0% | $342K
Top volume & odds: No change | 62.0% | $192K
Top volume & odds: October Meeting | 92.0% | $163K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $130 | 9.1% | $157K
Top odds: ↓ $100 | 78.8%
Popular events
Sources: engadget.com, zerohedge.com, theepochtimes.com
OpenAI AI development : OpenAI is open to slowing AI development : Sam Altman tells staff
OpenAI AI development : OpenAI is open to slowing AI development : Sam Altman tells staff. US lawmakers call for new AI rules after Anthropic researcher safety warnings. Better AI Chip Stock : Broadcom vs . Nvidia.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic at 96.1% with $19K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of September? - Anthropic
Trading at 96.1% with $19K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 96.1% | $19K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 30.0% | $9K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 95.0%
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 95.8% | $6K
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 55.2% | $3K
The Passion of the Christ. ChatGPT Allegedly Told a Man Experiencing Delusions That He Was Jesus. Randall Wallace : The Passion was Mel Gibson calling.
Sources: pluggedin.com, vice.com, christianpost.com
Scary Movie Officially Confirms Streaming Release Date
Scary Movie Officially Confirms Streaming Release Date. Chris Pratt $1B Fantasy Adventure Officially Hits Rare # 1 Streaming Milestone. New Pokemon movie set for release in 2027.
Sources: movieweb.com, screenrant.com, asiaone.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.0% with $74K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.0% with $74K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.0% | $74K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.9% | $14K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 47.0% | $7K
Top odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 54.0%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 5.0% | $6K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Top volume & odds: Bad Bunny | 86.0% | $3K
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today , Monday , August 31 , 2026 : Higher rate expectations pressure crypto prices lower. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?. Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300 , 000 by 2029 . Is Bitcoin Now a Buy ?.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, fool.com, aol.com
Which Crypto Could Make You a Millionaire by 2028 : XRP or Ethereum ?
Which Crypto Could Make You a Millionaire by 2028 : XRP or Ethereum ?. Traders Are Betting Ethereum Falls Back to $2 , 250 This Year . What Would Have to Go Wrong ?. Traders Are Betting Ethereum Falls Back to $2 , 250 This Year . What Would Have to Go Wrong ?.
Sources: aol.com, 247wallst.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes at 7.0% with $1M traded.
Top volume remains in Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 7.0% | $1M
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 2,800 | 17.0% | $112K
Top odds: ↑ 2,500 | 91.0%
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $500M | 88.0% | $12K
Top odds: $200M | 98.5%
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bbc.co.uk, dailypost.ng
Real Madrid , PSG , Liverpool : Ranking Europe greatest dynasties
Real Madrid , PSG , Liverpool : Ranking Europe greatest dynasties. Bodø / Glimt visits Bayern Munich and upstart Como makes its Champions League debut. Is Champions League treble a real possibility for PSG ?.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, wral.com, global.chinadaily.com.cn
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by NFL Champion 2027 - Denver Broncos at 2.8% with $120K traded.
Top volume remains in NFL Champion 2027 - Denver Broncos.
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Manchester United | 2.6% | $25K
Top odds: Barcelona | 20.0%
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Toronto Blue Jays | 2.2% | $14K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 32.0%
Popular events
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections.
Sources: medscape.com
Bangladesh to get carbon credits for electricity generation from waste
Bangladesh to get carbon credits for electricity generation from waste. Africa : New Report On Climate Overshoot - What It Means for Africa and How Faster Action Can Limit the Damage. Expansion completed for largest solar energy project in Milwaukee history.
Sources: bssnews.net, allafrica.com, cbs58.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k at 87.0% with $32K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑4.75k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.6% | $31K
Popular events
+$33,623
+$12,363
+$7,579
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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