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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" Event volume totals $286M across outcomes, with $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Abiy Ahmed" at 97.7%, with top volume on "Demeke Mekonnen" at 1.5% and $350 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?)" at 25.0% and $429K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? - Shimelis Abdisa
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 16.0% with $724K traded.
Lead stories
Congress Is Struggling to Govern . Are Electoral Incentives to Blame ?
Congress Is Struggling to Govern . Are Electoral Incentives to Blame ?. SOS to the FATF. Sanctions Have Become Economic Warfare | Armstrong Economics.
Sources: aei.org, philstar.com, armstrongeconomics.com
Lula warns against foreign interference in Brazil election at UN
Lula warns against foreign interference in Brazil election at UN. Trump has no right to impose his will on other countrie : Brazilian president. Brazil Lula warns against foreign interference in electoral processes.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes leads the desk at 25.0% with $429K traded.
Lead stories
Red Sea hit , Hormuz choked : How Saudi Arabia has kept its oil exports moving
Red Sea hit , Hormuz choked : How Saudi Arabia has kept its oil exports moving. Trump own State Department busts his major talking point. US wants to redraw Gulf energy map with a $5 billion bet beyond Hormuz : Report.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, alternet.org, economictimes.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T leads the desk at 25.0% with $63K traded.
Lead stories
SpaceX Grok 4 . 7 Lands Like A Damp Squid Albeit With Some Improvements , As DeepSeek Teases 8 Trillion Parameters Fo.... SpaceXAI GPT 4 . 7 is Out and Benchmarks Look Good Close to Opus 5 Max for Agentic Coding – NextBigFuture . com. AMD Hits $1 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Investment Surge , ETTelecom.
Sources: wccftech.com, nextbigfuture.com, telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.4% with $97K traded.
Lead stories
Donatella Versace starts a new chapter : Designer launches fashion and beauty venture after leaving Versace. Halle Berry And Zendaya Are Celebrity Pals , And Im Smiling At The Icon Take On The Younger Star. Bank Leads Hyper - Political Awards Season Push ?.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, cinemablend.com, hotair.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 2,250 leads the desk at 28.0% with $307K traded.
Lead stories
Ethereum ( ETH ) Price Prediction : ETH Breaks Higher as $2 , 631 Support Puts $3 , 520 Target in Focus. ETH / BTC Divergence : Ethereum Six - Session Rally. Bitcoin Breaks Free Gains Accelerate as Uptrend Gathers Pace.
Sources: bravenewcoin.com, coinspeaker.com, actionforex.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal leads the desk at 21.7% with $38K traded.
Lead stories
2026 Ballon dOr : Raphinha lists three reasons Yamal should win award
2026 Ballon dOr : Raphinha lists three reasons Yamal should win award. The Last Tango : Lionel Messi unveils the No . 10 hell wear for Argentina final goodbye. One last match , a jersey for a lifetime : Messi unveils kit for final international game.
Sources: dailypost.ng, economictimes.indiatimes.com, caribbeanherald.com
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k leads the desk at 66.0% with $43K traded.
Lead stories
2nd possible measles exposure reported in Philadelphia at airport – KTBB News , Weather , Talk
2nd possible measles exposure reported in Philadelphia at airport – KTBB News , Weather , Talk.
Sources: ktbb.com
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections
Data Gaps Hinder Response to Climate - Driven Infections.
Sources: medscape.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Fed Decision in October?
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
$123
Sources: aljazeera.com, aa.com.tr, pilotonline.com
Turkish Airlines suspends Iran flights until March 2027
Turkish Airlines suspends Iran flights until March 2027. Trump plans to ground Iranian airlines worldwide : How the US plans to do it without closing airspace and will India.... Iranian President Pezeshkian media team denied US visas for UNGA.
Sources: siasat.com, moneycontrol.com, samaa.tv
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 16.0% with $724K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 16.0% | $724K
Top volume: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 41.0% | $311K
Top odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 59.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: September 30 | 12.0% | $290K
Top odds: December 31 | 64.7%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume: Republicans Sweep | 8.0% | $223K
Top odds: Democrats Sweep | 66.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: September 30 | 96.0% | $166K
Popular events
13.2%
-0.3pp
$28M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $707M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $708M0%
Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike. Bessent says he has great confidence in Warsh after Fed raises rates. Fed official says Iran war pushed her toward backing rate hike – NBC New York.
Sources: kob.com, aol.com, nbcnewyork.com
Fighting inflation to be painful , top U . S . Fed official says
Fighting inflation to be painful , top U . S . Fed official says. EDITORIAL : Central bank bucks the trend. Exclusive - Fed Musalem says more rate hikes likely needed to quell inflation.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, taipeitimes.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes at 25.0% with $429K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes
Trading at 25.0% with $429K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 25.0% | $429K
Top volume & odds: Yes (US recession by end of 2026?) | 9.0% | $41K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $115 | 2.8% | $38K
Top odds: ↑ $95 | 56.0%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 11.0% | $26K
Popular events
SpaceX AI Business Is Booming . Here How Much Analysts Expect It to Generate by 2030
SpaceX AI Business Is Booming . Here How Much Analysts Expect It to Generate by 2030.
Sources: finance.yahoo.com
Competition Between Anthropic and OpenAI Intensifies Ahead of Expected IPOs
Competition Between Anthropic and OpenAI Intensifies Ahead of Expected IPOs. Got $5 , 000 ?: 2 Magnificent AI Cloud Stocks to Buy Before the Anthropic IPO. OpenAI , Anthropic Urge AI Slowdown ; But Will It Happen ?.
Sources: bgnes.com, fool.com, rediff.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T at 25.0% with $63K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T
Trading at 25.0% with $63K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 25.0% | $63K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 89.0%
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Top volume & odds: Anthropic | 98.3% | $41K
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Viking Therapeutics | 17.0% | $2K
Top odds: MGM Resorts | 29.0%
Why Taylor Swift Performing at VMAs 2026 Can Be a Huge Moment for Both Her Fans & MTV. Taylor Swift new song Patient Zero : Everything we know .. Taylor Swift countdown : Taylor Swift cryptic two - hour website countdown has swifties hunting for clues - Is anothe....
Merediths Reflect on BYU – Idaho 25 Years of Creating Disciple Leaders , in First Devotional of Fall Semester. LDS Church Urges Idaho Voters to Oppose Reproductive Act - LocalNews8 . com. Who would expect a Messiah like Jesus ?.
Sources: byui.edu, localnews8.com, americamagazine.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.4% with $97K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.4% with $97K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.4% | $97K
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?
Top volume: September 30, 2026 | 8.0% | $12K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 13.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.7% | $6K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 3.7% | $5K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 94.0%
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 75.0% | $1K
Bitcoin Just Hit an Eight - Month High But XRP Is Still 38 % Below Its January Peak . What Holding It Back ?. Bitmine ( NASDAQ : BMNR ) Chairman Tom Lee Crowns Crypto A Huge Winner As Banks Eye Tech Valuations ; Dan Ives Labels.... Down 53 %, Should You Still Buy CoreWeave ( CRWV ) Stock ?.
Sources: aol.com, foreignpolicyjournal.com, fool.com
Why Strategy Stock Surged Today | The Motley Fool
Why Strategy Stock Surged Today | The Motley Fool. Why Strategy Stock Surged Today | The Motley Fool. Bitcoin price news : BTC eyes $90 , 000 as leverage is building.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 2,250 at 28.0% with $307K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? - ↓ 2,250.
Event leaders
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 3,200 | 6.1% | $199K
Top odds: ↓ 2,700 | 77.0%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
Top volume: ↑ 87,500 | 77.0% | $159K
Top odds: ↓ 85,000 | 84.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 6.1% | $72K
Popular events
Packers paired with Chewbacca in new Disney - NFL apparel collaboration. Fox Live TV Schedule & Listings Guide. Touchdown ! Disney | Champion NFL Collection Debuts at Disney Store.
Sources: fox11online.com, screenrant.com, laughingplace.com
Tigers announce date for Justin Verlander final career start
Tigers announce date for Justin Verlander final career start. Every Chicago White Sox playoff possibility still alive entering the final week.
Sources: yardbarker.com, fansided.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal at 21.7% with $38K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lamine Yamal.
Event leaders
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: New York Yankees | 10.0% | $16K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 31.0%
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Real Madrid | 12.0% | $12K
Top odds: Barcelona | 23.0%
Popular events
New ICAI guidelines address sustainability assurance , greenwashing | Analysis. EPA says repealing power plant emissions rules will save billions – but its estimate leaves out health and climate costs. IEAT Partners with GULF1 - GPSC to Establish RenerGIE for Map Ta Phut Solar , Supporting Industry Energy Transition a....
Sources: thehindu.com, guampdn.com, newswit.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k at 66.0% with $43K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑5k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.9% | $8K
Popular events
+$30,067
+$14,017
+$12,363
Kalshi via Jupiter
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