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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Presidential Election Winner 2028". Event volume totals $715M across outcomes, with $271K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "JD Vance" at 19.1% and $17K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in October?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 84.0% and $175K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Ron DeSantis
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Brazil Presidential Election - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the desk at 12.0% with $837K traded.
Lead stories
Lula says Trump wants to colonise and capture Brazil resources by meddling in election | Brazil
Lula says Trump wants to colonise and capture Brazil resources by meddling in election | Brazil.
Sources: theguardian.com
US prepares military for possible new Iran strikes , Trump yet to decide
US prepares military for possible new Iran strikes , Trump yet to decide. Trump says Iran war almost over , open to direct talks. Iran files formal protest with UN aviation watchdog over US sanctions.
Sources: business-standard.com,
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in October? - No change leads the desk at 84.0% with $175K traded.
Lead stories
Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it
Commentary : The Fed credibility depends on resisting politics , not playing it. Small CPI surprise could trigger big Fed rate decision. Friday CPI inflation report is even more important than usual . Here what to expect.
Sources: timesleader.com, finance.yahoo.com, cnbc.com
B4
Lead market: Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2028 leads the desk at 22.0% with $32K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists
Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists. Cybersecurity experts share tips to stay safe online while using AI tools. OpenAI to watermark ChatGPT text - here why.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.0% with $100K traded.
Lead stories
Eternal Runway and Emirates Business & Real Estate Awards bring together leading designers , celebrity showstoppers ,.... Vishal Dadlani sells Goregaon West commercial unit for Rs . 3 . 34 crores : Report. Kareena Kapoor Khan joins Shah Rukh Khan starrer King for a special dance number : Report.
Sources: mexicostar.com, bollywoodhungama.com, bollywoodhungama.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 leads the desk at 10.0% with $118K traded.
Lead stories
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .. Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin After a 32 % Rally in Two Months ?. Bitcoin Crossed $85 , 000 on Cooler Inflation Data , Then Lost It the Same Day . Why Does Bitcoin Keep Failing at $85....
Sources: fool.com, 247wallst.com, 247wallst.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi leads the desk at 2.3% with $128K traded.
Lead stories
Joao Pedro : Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso says striker like Karim Benzema and as good as Erling Haaland
Joao Pedro : Chelsea boss Xabi Alonso says striker like Karim Benzema and as good as Erling Haaland. England v Czech Republic : Czechs prepare for Wembley 30 years after Euro 96. Ballon dOr : He outstanding - Spain coach De la Fuente picks player who should win 2026 award.
Sources: bbc.co.uk, bbc.co.uk, dailypost.ng
Bodø / Glimt visits Bayern Munich and upstart Como makes its Champions League debut
Bodø / Glimt visits Bayern Munich and upstart Como makes its Champions League debut. Man United goes on a scoring spree in its long - awaited return to the Champions League.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7k leads the desk at 39.0% with $178 traded.
Lead stories
Trust is climate infrastructure : What Mauritius teaches us about building truly resilient communities. Savannah : Isaias impacts. Pacific health voices call for climate finance and action ahead of COP31.
Sources: resilience.org, wjcl.com, pina.com.fj
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Russia burning as Ukraine launches massive drone attack on Moscow
Russia burning as Ukraine launches massive drone attack on Moscow. Russian Plague Scare : How The World Is Responding & What Has Changed. Trump offers Putin help with plague while mistaking name of disease | World | News.
Sources: express.co.uk, freepressjournal.in, express.co.uk
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Brazil Presidential Election - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 12.0% with $837K traded.
Top volume remains in Brazil Presidential Election - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Lead event
Brazil Presidential Election - Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Trading at 12.0% with $837K in volume.
Event leaders
Top volume: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 12.0% | $837K
Top odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 89.0%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: October 12 | 94.4% | $638K
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.6% | $353K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 10.0%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume: R Senate, D House | 30.0% | $249K
Top odds: Democrats Sweep | 62.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Top volume: Republican Party | 10.0% | $208K
Top odds: Democratic Party | 91.0%
15.1%
0.0pp
$13M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $711M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $715M0%
Saudi - Backed Forces Strike Back After Iran Proxy Seizes Control of Bab el - Mandeb – PJ Media. Crude Oil Hovers Near $100 A Barrel , Why Global Oil Prices Remain On Edge Amid Middle East Tensions ?. Arab News | Oil gains as traders weigh Gulf tensions against strong Mideast exports.
Sources: pjmedia.com, freepressjournal.in, arabnews.com
Oil Industry Braces For Years Of Market Disruption
Oil Industry Braces For Years Of Market Disruption.
Sources: marinelink.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in October? - No change at 84.0% with $175K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in October? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 84.0% | $175K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 18.0% | $46K
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $130 | 1.6% | $41K
Top odds: ↑ $95 | 70.0%
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Top volume: Apple | 15.1% | $29K
Top odds: Largest Company end of December 2026? | 84.0%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Top volume: December 31 | 10.0% | $28K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 26.0%
Google Gemini desktop app for Windows released. Google - parent Alphabet unveils Gemini 4 flagship AI model : Check features , release date , Gemini 3 . 5 Pro scrapped. Hallelujah , there finally a Gemini app for Windows.
Nvidia weighs $10 billion investment in Anthropic mega IPO : Report
Nvidia weighs $10 billion investment in Anthropic mega IPO : Report. 3 Ways to Invest in Anthropic Pre - IPO. Anthropic IPO : Can its $2 trillion valuation survive a $42 billion loss and massive AI spending ?.
Sources: timesofindia.indiatimes.com, aol.com, hindustantimes.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2028 at 22.0% with $32K traded.
Top volume remains in Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2028.
Lead event
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...? - December 31, 2028
Trading at 22.0% with $32K in volume.
Event leaders
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2028 | 22.0% | $32K
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Top volume: October 31 | 92.0% | $18K
Top odds: November 30 | 98.6%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $1.75–$2.0T | 17.0% | $12K
Top odds: $2.0–$2.25T | 30.6%
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Top volume: Lovable | 5.0% | $8K
Top odds: Viking Therapeutics | 13.0%
Elon Musk Recaptures Trillionaire Status | NewsTalk 1240 WSFC
Elon Musk Recaptures Trillionaire Status | NewsTalk 1240 WSFC. Elon Musk Recaptures Trillionaire Status. Elon Musk Recaptures Trillionaire Status.
Sources: wsfcam.iheart.com, 710wor.iheart.com, wrko.iheart.com
New docuseries opens virtual doors to the Salt Lake Temple
New docuseries opens virtual doors to the Salt Lake Temple. Like general conference every day : Downtown Salt Lake prepares for temple crowds. If the Sri Lankan government is willing to open the door , they will know the wisdom I am carrying – Jerome Fernando....
Sources: ksl.com, ksl.com, dailymirror.lk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.0% with $100K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.0% with $100K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.0% | $100K
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
Top volume & odds: 500+ | 2.4% | $48K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.4% | $26K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 54.0% | $4K
Is Bitcoin a Good Investment Right Now After a 42 % Quarter ?. Bitcoin Price Forecast : Fed Shock and BTC Levels. Michael Saylor Strategy buys Bitcoin again as surprise rally pushes price above $85 , 000.
Sources: aol.com, coinspeaker.com, finance.yahoo.com
Bitcoin ETFs Are Seeing Their Biggest Inflows Since October 2025 . Is Bitcoin Finally Back ?
Bitcoin ETFs Are Seeing Their Biggest Inflows Since October 2025 . Is Bitcoin Finally Back ?. How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today. How to Invest in Bitcoin : Ive Spent 5 Years Covering Crypto , and This Is the Strategy Id Use Today.
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000 at 10.0% with $118K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 55,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit October 5-11?
Top volume: ↓ 80,000 | 7.0% | $43K
Top odds: ↓ 82,000 | 70.0%
Popular events
Fox Live TV Schedule & Listings Guide
Fox Live TV Schedule & Listings Guide. The Long Game : Rainbow Warriors defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman. Former NFL RB LeShon Johnson Sentenced To 5 Years In Prison For Operating Large - Scale Dogfighting Ring.
Sources: screenrant.com, hawaiinewsnow.com, dailycaller.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi at 2.3% with $128K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Lionel Messi.
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Manchester City | 7.0% | $33K
Top odds: Barcelona | 23.0%
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Top volume & odds: Tampa Bay Rays | 65.7% | $31K
Popular events
Kashmir Paddy Farmers Celebrate Best Harvest in Years Thanks to Favorable Weather.
Sources: downtoearth.org.in
Monsoon Retreat : Thunderstorms in North India , Heavy Rainfall in Southern States
Monsoon Retreat : Thunderstorms in North India , Heavy Rainfall in Southern States. UK White Christmas prediction issued as El Niño forecast brings stormy winter. Madhya Pradesh Weather Update : Cyclonic Circulation Triggers Rains in Eastern Districts ; Slightly Chilling Nights A....
Sources: downtoearth.org.in, derbytelegraph.co.uk, freepressjournal.in
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7k at 39.0% with $178 traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑7k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 1.8% | $64
Popular events
+$19,666
+$10,744
+$8,646
Kalshi via Jupiter
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