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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Presidential Election Winner 2028". Event volume totals $716M across outcomes, with $86K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "JD Vance" at 22.2%, with top volume on "Pete Buttigieg" at 2.8% and $12K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in October?" Highest implied odds are for "No change" at 81.0%, with top volume on "25 bps increase" at 18.0% and $338K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Josh Shapiro
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $100M
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 18.0% with $385K traded.
Lead stories
Trump and Iran agree on one thing . The US election calendar isnt driving their decisions on the war
Trump and Iran agree on one thing . The US election calendar isnt driving their decisions on the war. US prepares military for possible new Iran strikes , Trump yet to decide. Pezeshkian pitches CIS + Iran bloc at Turkmenistan summit.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, business-standard.com, middleeasteye.net
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 18.0% with $338K traded.
Lead stories
AP News in Brief at 12 : 04 a . m . EDT
AP News in Brief at 12 : 04 a . m . EDT. AP News in Brief at 12 : 04 a . m . EDT.
Sources: gazettextra.com, woonsocketcall.com
Anthropic path from AI startup to industry - defining IPO
Anthropic path from AI startup to industry - defining IPO. Google announces Gemini 4 flagship AI model after months of delays. Catastrophic risk to humanity : Inside Anthropic $2 trillion IPO , $42 billion loss and AI ambitions.
Sources:
B4
Lead market: Which company has the best AI model end of October? - Meta leads the desk at 2.9% with $39K traded.
Lead stories
McDonald Sued For Using AI Pricing | News Radio 96 . 7
McDonald Sued For Using AI Pricing | News Radio 96 . 7. OpenAI to watermark ChatGPT text - here why.
Sources: newsradio967.iheart.com, samaa.tv
Google - parent Alphabet unveils Gemini 4 flagship AI model : Check features , release date , Gemini 3 . 5 Pro scrapped. Your Pixel 11 just got a personal assistant that actually makes calls on your behalf. Gemini 4 is almost ready , says new Google DeepMind chief.
Sources:
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.7% with $317K traded.
Lead stories
Eternal Runway and Emirates Business & Real Estate Awards bring together leading designers , celebrity showstoppers ,.... Vishal Dadlani sells Goregaon West commercial unit for Rs . 3 . 34 crores : Report. Ranveer Singh Dhurandhar : The Revenge enters Grammys 2027 race ; submits soundtrack in 9 categories.
Sources: mexicostar.com, bollywoodhungama.com, moneycontrol.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 70,000 leads the desk at 37.0% with $73K traded.
Lead stories
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .
Why Does the Price of Bitcoin Keep Going Up ? The Answer Might Surprise You .. Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin After a 32 % Rally in Two Months ?. Bitcoin Crossed $85 , 000 on Cooler Inflation Data , Then Lost It the Same Day . Why Does Bitcoin Keep Failing at $85....
Sources: fool.com, 247wallst.com, 247wallst.com
B7
Lead market: MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Cleveland Guardians leads the desk at 9.0% with $89K traded.
Lead stories
2026 MLB postseason preview : Bracket , matchups , seeding , schedule – NBC New York
2026 MLB postseason preview : Bracket , matchups , seeding , schedule – NBC New York. 2026 MLB postseason preview : Bracket , matchups , seeding , schedule – NBC 5 Dallas - Fort Worth. 2026 MLB postseason preview : Bracket , matchups , seeding , schedule – NBC4 Washington.
Sources: nbcnewyork.com, nbcdfw.com, nbcwashington.com
England v Czech Republic : Czechs prepare for Wembley 30 years after Euro 96
England v Czech Republic : Czechs prepare for Wembley 30 years after Euro 96. Ballon dOr 2026 : What he does is incredible - Milla names player who deserves award. Kylian Mbappe winning the Ballon dOr wont actually mean anything.
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 1.6% with $724 traded.
Lead stories
When will El Niño peak and end ? A full timeline of the weather phenomenon taking the world by storm
When will El Niño peak and end ? A full timeline of the weather phenomenon taking the world by storm. Donald Trump : Hurricane Isaias under control , Florida , Alabama issue warnings. Hurricane Isaias On Land , Moving North - 10 PM CDT.
Sources: euronews.com, jpost.com, 95ksj.iheart.com
Hurricane Isaias On Land , Moving North - 10 PM CDT
Hurricane Isaias On Land , Moving North - 10 PM CDT. Hurricane Isaias makes landfall as extreme winds , heavy rain blast the Gulf Coast. Trust is climate infrastructure : What Mauritius teaches us about building truly resilient communities.
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Trump says Iran war almost over , open to direct talks. Centcom says 133 vessels redirected in Hormuz as it enforces Iran blockade. Live Updates : Latest from Israel , Iran , and the Middle East.
Sources: samaa.tv, middleeasteye.net, jpost.com
Turkish Airlines suspends Iran flights until March 2027
Turkish Airlines suspends Iran flights until March 2027. Iran issues horror WW3 threat to strike airports - No more flights. Iraq suspends Iranian flights to Baghdad after US sanctions threat : Report.
Sources: siasat.com, aol.co.uk, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes at 18.0% with $385K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?) | 18.0% | $385K
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: October 15 | 96.8% | $201K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Top volume: October 15 | 3.7% | $145K
Top odds: December 31 | 44.3%
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 26.0% | $96K
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Top volume: Republican Party | 10.0% | $95K
Top odds: Democratic Party | 91.0%
Popular events
14.5%
—
$13M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $711M
Presidential election
Event volume $716M
Brent commands a war premium as Middle East supply risks keep oil on edge
Brent commands a war premium as Middle East supply risks keep oil on edge. Oil Industry Braces For Years Of Market Disruption.
Sources: economictimes.indiatimes.com, marinelink.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase at 18.0% with $338K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in October? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2027 | 10.0% | $58K
Top odds: December 31, 2029 | 22.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Top volume: ↑ $100 | 41.0% | $42K
Top odds: ↑ $95 | 79.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 96.1% | $23K
Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists
Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists.
Sources: fool.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Which company has the best AI model end of October? - Meta at 2.9% with $39K traded.
Top volume remains in Which company has the best AI model end of October? - Meta.
Lead event
Which company has the best AI model end of October? - Meta
Trading at 2.9% with $39K in volume.
Event leaders
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Top volume: Meta | 2.9% | $39K
Top odds: Google | 71.3%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Top volume: October 13 | 61.0% | $23K
Top odds: November 30 | 98.0%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $1.75–$2.0T | 26.0% | $22K
Top odds: $2.0–$2.25T | 26.8%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 70.0% | $18K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 95.0%
New docuseries opens virtual doors to the Salt Lake Temple
New docuseries opens virtual doors to the Salt Lake Temple. Like general conference every day : Downtown Salt Lake prepares for temple crowds. If the Sri Lankan government is willing to open the door , they will know the wisdom I am carrying – Jerome Fernando....
Sources: ksl.com, ksl.com, dailymirror.lk
PM Narendra Modi Gifts Indian Cheeses To Swiss President Guy Parmelin In Delhi : About Award - Winning Gulmarg , Kona.... Boys Town Nevada Celebrates 35 Years With Impact Gala Honoring Mark Davis. Nigeria : ANOTHER ROUND OF UNIVERSITY WORKER STRIKE.
Sources: freepressjournal.in, nevadabusiness.com, afriquesenlutte.org
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.7% with $317K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.7% with $317K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.7% | $317K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.4% | $16K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 67.0% | $7K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 3.9% | $3K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96.0%
Jagan Reddy joins chorus against EC , calls for review of appointment law. Australian Government Falls Short of Promised Pre - COP Leadership.
Sources: aninews.in, miragenews.com
Is Bitcoin a Good Investment Right Now After a 42 % Quarter ?
Is Bitcoin a Good Investment Right Now After a 42 % Quarter ?. Bitcoin Price Forecast : Fed Shock and BTC Levels. Michael Saylor Strategy buys Bitcoin again as surprise rally pushes price above $85 , 000.
Sources: aol.com, coinspeaker.com, finance.yahoo.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 70,000 at 37.0% with $73K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 70,000.
Event leaders
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 6.4% | $65K
Popular events
Sources: bbc.co.uk, dailypost.ng, fourfourtwo.com
NBA champion Knicks still internally discussing White House visit
NBA champion Knicks still internally discussing White House visit. The NBA all - time scoring leader quiz. Michael Jordan shared his never won mentality with Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla.
Sources: nydailynews.com, yardbarker.com, hitc.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Cleveland Guardians at 9.0% with $89K traded.
Top volume remains in MLB World Series Champion 2026 - Cleveland Guardians.
Event leaders
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Cleveland Guardians | 9.0% | $89K
Top odds: Los Angeles Dodgers | 35.0%
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
Top volume & odds: Tampa Bay Rays | 63.8% | $32K
MLB: 2026 National League Champion
Top volume: Los Angeles Dodgers | 37.0% | $24K
Top odds: Milwaukee Brewers | 65.0%
Popular events
Kashmir Paddy Farmers Celebrate Best Harvest in Years Thanks to Favorable Weather
Kashmir Paddy Farmers Celebrate Best Harvest in Years Thanks to Favorable Weather.
Sources: downtoearth.org.in
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 1.6% with $724 traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 1.6% | $724
Popular events
+$19,666
+$10,744
+$8,646
Kalshi via Jupiter
Polymarket
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