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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $1B across outcomes, with $718K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "Gavin Newsom" at 15.9%, with top volume on "Raphael Warnock" at 2.0% and $156K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in October?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "No change" at 85.0% and $818K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
$0
Highest implied
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.6%
Top priced
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.6%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Brazil Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro leads the desk at 76.9% with $659K traded.
Lead stories
Brazil : Lula , Bolsonaro clash in heated presidential debate
Brazil : Lula , Bolsonaro clash in heated presidential debate. How a US political venture capital firm is trying to influence Brazil election. Brazil Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro trade barbs in 1st debate only days before presidential runoff – Winnipeg Free Press.
Sources: dw.com, theconversation.com, winnipegfreepress.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in October? - No change leads the desk at 85.0% with $818K traded.
Lead stories
Nasdaq , S & P futures bounce back on Black Monday anniversary
Nasdaq , S & P futures bounce back on Black Monday anniversary. Gold Falls Below $4 , 150 Ahead of Federal Reserve Policy Meeting. Cook Case Tests The Limits Of Fed Independence.
Sources: seekingalpha.com, econotimes.com, zerohedge.com
Oil tanker on fire after hitting mine in Hormuz : Iran Guards
Oil tanker on fire after hitting mine in Hormuz : Iran Guards. Iran says oil tanker caught fire after hitting mine in Strait of Hormuz. Iran Guards Say Oil Tanker on Fire after Hitting Mine in Hormuz.
B4
Lead market: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T leads the desk at 18.0% with $47K traded.
Lead stories
Dario Amodei Predicted at Davos in January 2025 That AI Could Surpass Humans at Almost Everything Within Two to Three.... Semiconductor Sell - Off : 5 Stocks to Buy on the Dip. AMD Stock Climbs Nearly 4 % as Chipmakers Rebound From Worst Week Since March on Lower Yields and Oil Prices.
Sources: fool.com, fool.com, ibtimes.com.au
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 4.5% with $71K traded.
Lead stories
Hansal Mehta SLAMS Prahaar - Shahid box office comparison : It deserves to succeed on its own merits : Bollywood News. Netflix Officially Starts A New Era At The Box Office. Jailer 2 Vs Ranabaali Vs Nayyi Naveli Box Office : Day - Wise Collections Of Rajinikanth , Vijay Deverakonda And Yami....
Sources: bollywoodhungama.com, screenrant.com, newsx.com
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in October? - ↑ 87,500 leads the desk at 25.0% with $80K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin Analysis : BTC Price Swings Are the Narrowest in 2 . 5 Years . What Happened the Last Time ?
Bitcoin Analysis : BTC Price Swings Are the Narrowest in 2 . 5 Years . What Happened the Last Time ?. Strategy Buys $22M in Bitcoin , Repurchases $193M in STRC. MARA Holdings ( MARA ) Mined More Bitcoin , but Revenue Fell 27 %.
Sources: 247wallst.com, cointelegraph.com, insidermonkey.com
B7
Lead market: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé leads the desk at 5.7% with $173K traded.
Lead stories
France legend Henry , Kate Scott to host 2026 Ballon dOr
France legend Henry , Kate Scott to host 2026 Ballon dOr. Yamal v PSG : Ballon dOr backdrop to Champions League showdown - Sport. Ronaldo handed 30 - day suspension and €255 fine by Portuguese federation.
Sources: punchng.com, namibian.com.na, the42.ie
The 50 - HR MLB season quiz. Rays Aim To Secure AL Pennant Against Guardians | News Radio 690 KTSM. Rays Aim To Secure AL Pennant Against Guardians | Twin Cities News Talk.
Sources: ,
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 1.6% with $3K traded.
Lead stories
Seven of 16 Planetary Vital Signs of Earth Now at Record Extremes , Study Finds
Seven of 16 Planetary Vital Signs of Earth Now at Record Extremes , Study Finds. SCVNews . com | California Cuts Climate Emissions As Economy Keeps Growing. Our food system is vulnerable to El Niño , warns united kingdom climate minister.
Sources: deccanchronicle.com, scvnews.com, newscientist.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Iran blames US for Strait of Hormuz insecurity as Russia reaffirms strategic ties with Tehran. Iran pols finally admit they want nuclear weapons : It a necessity more important than bread.
Sources: moneycontrol.com, nypost.com
Fact Check Team : How Israel election could shape its relationship with the US and Iran
Fact Check Team : How Israel election could shape its relationship with the US and Iran. Fact Check Team : How Israel election could shape its relationship with the US and Iran. Trump to Netanyahu : Youll have tremendou election win.
Sources: wpde.com, 13wham.com, vanguardngr.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Brazil Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.9% with $659K traded.
Top volume remains in Brazil Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Flávio Bolsonaro | 76.9% | $659K
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Top volume & odds: October 22 | 90.0% | $636K
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Top volume: Benjamin Netanyahu | 29.0% | $329K
Top odds: Gadi Eizenkot | 49.9%
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.5% | $234K
Top odds: June 30, 2027 | 11.0%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Top volume & odds: No Hormuz Agreement | 90.8% | $220K
14.9%
—
$16M
—
Republican nominee
Event volume $714M
Presidential election
Event volume $717M
This Is What I Will Be Doing : Elon Musk Says Hell Give Shares to the Public After Anthropic Announces 5 % Fund. OpenAI Sued By Eight U . S . States Over ChatGPT Toxic Influence on Teens – NaturalNews . com. Five early childhood funding collaboratives | Inside Philanthropy.
Sources: aol.com, naturalnews.com, insidephilanthropy.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in October? - No change at 85.0% with $818K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in October? - No change.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: No change | 85.0% | $818K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 13.0% | $136K
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2027 | 10.0% | $134K
Top odds: December 31, 2029 | 24.0%
Popular events
Better Artificial Intelligence Stock for 2026 : C3 . ai vs . SentinelOne. Amnon Shashua doubleAI launches an AI that speeds up code while it runs.
Sources: fool.com, thenextweb.com
SpaceX , Tesla earnings to test Musk AI spending ambitions
SpaceX , Tesla earnings to test Musk AI spending ambitions. SpaceX , Tesla earnings to test Musk AI spending ambitions as merger talk grows. SpaceX , Tesla earnings to test Musk AI spending ambitions as merger talk grows.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, tribune.com.pk, ksl.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T at 18.0% with $47K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T.
Lead event
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? - ↑$3.0T
Trading at 18.0% with $47K in volume.
Event leaders
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 18.0% | $47K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 92.0%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Top volume & odds: Google | 73.5% | $26K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 18.0% | $26K
Top odds: December 31, 2027 | 65.0%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $2.25–$2.5T | 10.0% | $21K
Top odds: $1.75–$2.0T | 26.0%
Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.5% | $15K
Top odds: December 31, 2028 | 27.0%
[ Catholic Caucus Devotional ] My Catholic Life ! Catholic Daily Reflections : Our Confession of Faith. Air1 Verse of the Day | Air1 Worship Music. Church of Jesus Christ of Latter - day Saints building its second largest Alberta temple in Lethbridge.
Sources: freerepublic.com, air1.com, cbc.ca
It Officially The End Of An Era For The Odyssey At The Box Office
It Officially The End Of An Era For The Odyssey At The Box Office. Monday Stories : How Jailer 2 & Ranabaali Fared In First Weekend ?. Before Gremlins 3 , You Can Buy a Life Size Prop from the Divisive 1990 Sequel.
Sources: screenrant.com, gulte.com, comicbook.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 4.5% with $71K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 4.5% with $71K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 4.5% | $71K
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.3% | $18K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 57.0% | $6K
Top volume & odds: No Bond chosen | 38.2% | $4K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 82.0% | $4K
Bitcoin rebounds above $82 , 000 as oil prices fall and risk appetite improves. Bitcoin Rebounds , But Demand Remains Sore Spot 2nd Update. AI Predicts Bitcoin Stays Still While Oil Breaks $110.
Sources: hindustantimes.com, morningstar.com, coinspeaker.com
Ether ETFs Have Given Back 62 % of This Year Inflows . Is Wall Street Giving Up on Ethereum ?
Ether ETFs Have Given Back 62 % of This Year Inflows . Is Wall Street Giving Up on Ethereum ?. Monero Price Prediction : XMR Topped $600 After Peter Brandt Turned Bullish . Is It Too Late to Buy ?. TRON Network - Q3 2026.
Sources: aol.com, aol.com, coindesk.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in October? - ↑ 87,500 at 25.0% with $80K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in October? - ↑ 87,500.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
Top volume: ↑ 87,500 | 25.0% | $80K
Top odds: ↑ 82,500 | 82.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 5.4% | $8K
Popular events
49ers , Commanders Square Off On MNF | Talk Radio 98 . 3 WLAC
49ers , Commanders Square Off On MNF | Talk Radio 98 . 3 WLAC. 49ers , Commanders Square Off On MNF. 49ers , Commanders Square Off On MNF.
Sources: wlac.iheart.com, wjbt.iheart.com, whp580.iheart.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé at 5.7% with $173K traded.
Top volume remains in Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 - Kylian Mbappé.
Event leaders
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Top volume: Cleveland Guardians | 7.0% | $166K
Top odds: Milwaukee Brewers | 63.8%
Popular events
Vol $26K
Behind AI carbon footprint , a potential climate tool. Updated Oʻahu climate plan says resident choices key to curbing emissions. Piraeus Container Terminal wins two gold awards at Environmental Awards 2026.
Sources: thestar.com.my, hawaiipublicradio.org, naftemporiki.gr
Rain lashes Ramanathapuram ; Thangachimadam records 83 . 10 mm in 24 hours
Rain lashes Ramanathapuram ; Thangachimadam records 83 . 10 mm in 24 hours.
Sources: thehindu.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 1.6% with $3K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 1.6% | $3K
Popular events
+$19,666
+$10,744
+$10,091
Kalshi via Jupiter
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