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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
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Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $720M across outcomes, with $577K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds are for "J.D. Vance" at 37.6%, with top volume on "Ivanka Trump" at 1.8% and $61K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?)" at 12.0% and $36K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 - Donald Trump Jr.
$0
Highest implied
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.9%
Top priced
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Which party will win the House in 2026? - Democratic Party leads the desk at 95.0% with $2M traded.
Lead stories
One week away , the stakes if the midterm elections loom large
One week away , the stakes if the midterm elections loom large. Former Abbott House director accused of embezzling more than $200K. Chichester care home Cornelius House rated outstanding.
Sources: news9.com, news9.com, theargus.co.uk
Israel holds polls amid uncertainty over Netanyahu future
Israel holds polls amid uncertainty over Netanyahu future. Voters in Israel will decide whether to oust Netanyahu after 3 years of war. Will Gadi Eisenkot End Netanyahu Rule ?.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes leads the desk at 12.0% with $36K traded.
Lead stories
Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergencies
Iranian sailors rescued off Sri Lanka coast after medical emergencies. Arab News | US touts role in Gulf oil exports as CENTCOM chief flies over Hormuz Strait. Saudi Arabia Singapore plan : Riyadh eyes oil storage hub from 2027 amid Hormuz disruption.
Sources: bbc.com, arabnews.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic leads the desk at 43.9% with $23K traded.
Lead stories
Reliance - backed Jio Platforms IPO : ₹1 lakh crore gains for Meta , Google in ₹30 , 213 cr issue by Mukesh Ambani fi.... Jio IPO : Meta , Google sit on nearly ₹1 lakh crore paper profit & neither is selling. Which Funds Have the Largest Stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Their IPOs ?.
Sources: livemint.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, morningstar.com
B5
Lead market: Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes leads the desk at 1.2% with $26K traded.
Lead stories
Birmingham contaminated Mamba tragedy as devastated sister pleads dont risk your lives
Birmingham contaminated Mamba tragedy as devastated sister pleads dont risk your lives. Franklin Graham extols Republican values. Howerton calls Zach Lambert a heretic but welcomes Bo French – Baptist News Global.
Sources: birminghammail.co.uk, baptistnews.com, baptistnews.com
Elon Musk Grok releases first AI - generated Odyssey episode
Elon Musk Grok releases first AI - generated Odyssey episode. Fil - Canadian Eric Bauza , longtime Looney Tune voice actor , dies at 46. Matthew Perry docuseries , Minions & Monster to The Gilded Age : Movies and series to stream this week.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 50,000 leads the desk at 9.0% with $62K traded.
Lead stories
Bitcoin wealthy holders are moving from trading to private banking , Xapo CEO says
Bitcoin wealthy holders are moving from trading to private banking , Xapo CEO says. Strategy Inc Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock ( NASDAQ : STRC ) Plans Dividend of $0 . 03.
Sources: coindesk.com, themarketsdaily.com
WORPT Now Available Under Thailand Tourist DigiPay Regulatory Sandbox
WORPT Now Available Under Thailand Tourist DigiPay Regulatory Sandbox. Bitcoin slips under $80 , 000 as traders de - risk ahead of Fed meeting. Ripple Swell 2026 Preview : What Evidence To Watch.
B7
Lead market: Eagles leads the desk at 22.0% with $184K traded.
Lead stories
NFC Playoff Picture : San Francisco 49ers lose but remain in the driver seat for the No . 1 seed
NFC Playoff Picture : San Francisco 49ers lose but remain in the driver seat for the No . 1 seed.
Sources: ninersnation.com
Rising stars train with A - League club
Rising stars train with A - League club. The SoCon title contenders.
Sources: fijisun.com.fj, midmajormadness.com
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 2.1% with $9K traded.
Lead stories
Cupola Lower Carbon LLLP and SWCorp Malaysia Establish Strategic Collaboration to Advance Low - Carbon Solid Waste Ma.... Trip . com Group : Three in Four Travellers Say Sustainability Matters as Trip . com Launches My Travel Impact to Hel.... Very severe cyclone Arnab to hit Andhra coast on Oct 28.
Sources: manilatimes.net, finanznachrichten.de,
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Sources: rediff.com, durangoherald.com, rediff.com
Miami and BYU would be top 2 seeds on CFP bracket based on AP Top 25 ; Georgia would be a host – Winnipeg Free Press. Ginormous meltdown this week , as you can imagine .. Jealousy ! White - hot Trump turns on Fox News regular trying to take down Ken Paxton.
Sources: winnipegfreepress.com, rollbamaroll.com, rawstory.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Which party will win the House in 2026? - Democratic Party at 95.0% with $2M traded.
Top volume remains in Which party will win the House in 2026? - Democratic Party.
Lead event
Which party will win the House in 2026? - Democratic Party
Trading at 95.0% with $2M in volume.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
36.0%
—
$918K
—
Event leaders
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Democratic Party | 95.0% | $2M
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Top volume: Benjamin Netanyahu | 36.0% | $918K
Top odds: Gadi Eizenkot | 44.7%
Top volume: Ken Paxton (R) | 28.0% | $911K
Top odds: James Talarico (D) | 74.0%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume: Republicans Sweep | 6.0% | $858K
Top odds: Democrats Sweep | 71.0%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Top volume & odds: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 79.0% | $580K
13.8%
-1.7pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $720M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $724M0%
Bitcoin slips under $80 , 000 as traders de - risk ahead of Fed meeting. Japan Benchmark Bond Yields Rise Ahead of BOJ and Fed Decisions. Sterling Holds Near $1 . 3373 as FXStreet Flags $1 . 3420 Hurdle.
Sources: coindesk.com, econotimes.com, econotimes.com
Saudi Arabia to store oil in Singapore to bolster Asia supply security
Saudi Arabia to store oil in Singapore to bolster Asia supply security. Sensex falls 134 points , Nifty slips below 22 , 600 amid crude oil prices and West Asia tensions. Oil Prices Fall Monday After Six - Month Highs.
Sources: arynews.tv, ibtimes.co.in, en.shafaqna.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes at 12.0% with $36K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes
Trading at 12.0% with $36K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 12.0% | $36K
Top volume & odds: 25 bps increase | 70.0% | $28K
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Top volume: December 31 | 17.0% | $27K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 29.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Top volume: ↑ $5,000 | 6.1% | $24K
Top odds: ↓ $3,500 | 14.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 97.6% | $19K
Popular events
Anthropic Is Growing 50 %, Microsoft Isnt
Anthropic Is Growing 50 %, Microsoft Isnt. Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists. Anthropic Says It Turned an Adjusted Profit Ahead of Its Expected IPO.
Sources: 247wallst.com, fool.com, aol.com
Alphabet AI Spending Is So Heavy It Eating Into Free Cash Flow
Alphabet AI Spending Is So Heavy It Eating Into Free Cash Flow. DeepSeek Dials Up the Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic With Open - Source Inference Tool. 1 % Of Companies Account For 80 % Of OpenAI And Anthropic Spending - And It Just Stalled.
Sources: aol.com, gizmodo.com, zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic at 43.9% with $23K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - Anthropic.
Event leaders
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $1.5–$1.75T | 19.8% | $10K
Top odds: $1.75–$2.0T | 30.0%
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 96.3% | $10K
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Top volume & odds: Google | 54.0% | $9K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$2.0T | 67.0% | $8K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 90.1%
Sources: arynews.tv, philstar.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Why are A - listers buying British pubs ?
Why are A - listers buying British pubs ?.
Sources: morningadvertiser.co.uk
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes at 1.2% with $26K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.2% | $26K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 2.9% | $21K
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 53.0% | $3K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 4.9% | $3K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96.0%
Popular events
Sources: manilatimes.net, coindesk.com, newsbtc.com
Claude AI Uncovers NSA Curve Mystery , Sparks Satoshi Debate
Claude AI Uncovers NSA Curve Mystery , Sparks Satoshi Debate. Coinbase Lays Out How It Thinks Bitcoin Should Prepare for the Quantum Threat. Coinbase Lays Out How It Thinks Bitcoin Should Prepare for the Quantum Threat.
Sources: econotimes.com, gizmodo.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 50,000 at 9.0% with $62K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? - ↓ 50,000.
Event leaders
Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?
Top volume: November 15, 2026 | 79.9% | $32K
Top odds: December 31, 2026 | 97.8%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 2.8% | $13K
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Top volume: $800M | 85.0% | $8K
Top odds: $200M | 98.9%
Popular events
Barcelona suffers first loss of season , falls 4 - 2 to PSG. PSG Beat Man City 4 - 2 to Lead Champions League Standings.
Sources: koreaherald.com, zalebs.com
Event leaders
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Paris Saint-Germain | 17.0% | $41K
Top odds: Barcelona | 23.0%
Top volume & odds: San Antonio Spurs | 23.0% | $20K
Popular events
Vol $184K
EPL: 2027 Champion - Liverpool
Vol $68K
Cyclonic Storm Arnab Forms Over Bay of Bengal , Set to Strike Andhra Coast as Very Severe Cyclone
Cyclonic Storm Arnab Forms Over Bay of Bengal , Set to Strike Andhra Coast as Very Severe Cyclone. Coalition eyes climate , housing money to fund tax cuts. Weather warnings in place as united kingdom braced for more strong winds and heavy rain.
Sources: pragativadi.com, examiner.com.au, northsomersettimes.co.uk
Cyclone Arnab : Over 4 , 800 fishing vessels return safely to Kakinada coast
Cyclone Arnab : Over 4 , 800 fishing vessels return safely to Kakinada coast. Workers continue to restore power to homes hit by Storm Boelo. Workers continue to restore power to homes hit by Storm Boelo.
Sources: thehindu.com, chelmsfordcitynews.co.uk, burnhamandhighbridgeweeklynews.co.uk
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 2.1% with $9K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 2.1% | $9K
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 14–16 | 57.0% | $98
Popular events
+$5,868
+$3,709
+$2,372
Kalshi via Jupiter
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