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News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" Event volume totals $12M across outcomes. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?)" at 1.9% and $0 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Fed Decision in December?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "25 bps increase" at 73.0% and $219K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? - Yes
$0
Highest implied
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.9%
Top priced
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? - $200M
98.9%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Republicans Sweep leads the desk at 6.0% with $5M traded.
Lead stories
House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election
House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election. House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election. Competitive 2026 midterm elections in Senate , House and governors.
Sources: wxii12.com, kcra.com, wxii12.com
One week away , the stakes if the midterm elections loom large
One week away , the stakes if the midterm elections loom large. Former Abbott House director accused of embezzling more than $200K. What are the US midterm elections and what does Donald Trump have to do with them ?.
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Fed Decision in December? - 25 bps increase leads the desk at 73.0% with $219K traded.
Lead stories
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U . S . midterms
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U . S . midterms. Reuters Poll Finds All 100 Economists Expect December Fed Rate Increase. Bond traders are backing off Fed rate hike bets here what it means for mortgage rates.
Sources: bnnbloomberg.ca, econotimes.com, aol.com
Explosions rock Iran Qeshm Island as Tehran claims three US drones downed
Explosions rock Iran Qeshm Island as Tehran claims three US drones downed. US military strikes Iran Qeshm Island. Arab News | US struck Iran Qeshm Island , Wall Street Journal reports.
B4
Lead market: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX leads the desk at 64.0% with $60K traded.
Lead stories
Reliance - backed Jio Platforms IPO : ₹1 lakh crore gains for Meta , Google in ₹30 , 213 cr issue by Mukesh Ambani fi.... Jio IPO : Meta , Google sit on nearly ₹1 lakh crore paper profit & neither is selling. Which Funds Have the Largest Stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI Ahead of Their IPOs ?.
Sources: livemint.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, morningstar.com
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.3% with $86K traded.
Lead stories
Ronnie Minder rolls camera on apocalyptic thriller Plague
Ronnie Minder rolls camera on apocalyptic thriller Plague. Stevie Nicks shares new insight on writing Landslide during Lindsey Buckingham romance. Stevie Nicks shares new insight on writing Landslide during Lindsey Buckingham romance.
Prabhas - starrer Salaar Part 2 to go on floors in 2027
Prabhas - starrer Salaar Part 2 to go on floors in 2027. Zach Cregger Resident Evil Movie Has Passed $360 Million Worldwide. James Cameron Celebrates Endgame Win.
B6
Lead market: What price will Bitcoin hit in November? - ↑ 80,000 leads the desk at 66.0% with $153K traded.
Lead stories
What Happens to Bitcoin When Billions in Options Expire ?
What Happens to Bitcoin When Billions in Options Expire ?. With Oil Prices Rising , Bitcoin Remains Stuck Below $85 , 000 . Here Why Im Still Buying Bitcoin Right Now .. Is Uptober Over for BTC ? Bitcoin Is Down Nearly 4 % So Far This October ..
Sources: aol.com, fool.com, 247wallst.com
Courier Business Charged Over Unpaid Long Service Leave
Courier Business Charged Over Unpaid Long Service Leave. NSW Distribution DRAFT Release.
B7
Lead market: Bears leads the desk at 91.0% with $116K traded.
Lead stories
Bears notebook : QB Caleb Williams wears logo - less Caddix cleats vs . Seahawks to avoid more trouble with NFL. Seahawks activate rookie RB Jadarian Price off IR. Bears - Seahawks Game Moves from ABC 7 to The U in Chicago Is Monday Night Football On Abc Tonight.
Sources: chicago.suntimes.com, joxfm.com, el-balad.com
Barcelona suffers first loss of season , falls 4 - 2 to PSG
Barcelona suffers first loss of season , falls 4 - 2 to PSG. PSG Beat Man City 4 - 2 to Lead Champions League Standings.
B8
Lead market: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑6.5k leads the desk at 73.0% with $67K traded.
Lead stories
Irrigation helps in climate resilience but it not enough
Irrigation helps in climate resilience but it not enough. Low - pressure system may strengthen into subtropical storm. Weather Alert - evening severe threat.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, wxii12.com, kwch.com
Nashville weather update for Nov . 2
Nashville weather update for Nov . 2. Major flooding , rain thrashes southwestern Colorado for second week. Warm weather could bring record highs to Ontario.
Sources:
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Sources: news9.com, news9.com, abc.net.au
Trump says US midterms most important in our lifetime in last speech before vote
Trump says US midterms most important in our lifetime in last speech before vote. He Not Going Moderate : Undercover Tapes Catch Talarico Inner Circle Admitting His Act. Alabama Fair Ballot Commission approves explanation of 4 constitutional amendments.
Sources: abc.net.au, redstate.com, waff.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Republicans Sweep at 6.0% with $5M traded.
Top volume remains in Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms - Republicans Sweep.
Event leaders
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume: Republicans Sweep | 6.0% | $5M
Top odds: Democrats Sweep | 76.0%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Democratic Party | 95.0% | $2M
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Top volume: Republican Party | 25.0% | $2M
Top odds: Democratic Party | 77.0%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Top volume & odds: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 81.0% | $1M
Top volume: Ken Paxton (R) | 26.0% | $607K
Top odds: James Talarico (D) | 74.0%
15.6%
+1.8pp
$14M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $721M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $727M0%
HPCL Visakhapatnam refinery fire controlled , no damage to units
HPCL Visakhapatnam refinery fire controlled , no damage to units. San Diego gas prices down 40 cents a gallon in the past month . But what happens next ?. Ringgit opens slightly higher amid hopes of US - Iran talks progress.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, sandiegouniontribune.com, thestar.com.my
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Fed Decision in December? - 25 bps increase at 73.0% with $219K traded.
Top volume remains in Fed Decision in December? - 25 bps increase.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: 25 bps increase | 73.0% | $219K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 12.0% | $85K
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Top volume: December 31 | 14.0% | $67K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 28.0%
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
Top volume: ↑ $5,000 | 3.8% | $21K
Top odds: ↓ $3,500 | 18.0%
Popular events
AI chatbots are becoming political advisers . Their answers can mislead voters
AI chatbots are becoming political advisers . Their answers can mislead voters. John Ivison : Red flags all over Carney government buy - in of AI company Cohere. Qualcomm Takes On The AI Inference Memory Bottleneck With Working HBC Silicon , And Its First Data Center Product Is....
Sources: interlochenpublicradio.org, calgaryherald.com, wccftech.com
Alphabet AI Spending Is So Heavy It Eating Into Free Cash Flow
Alphabet AI Spending Is So Heavy It Eating Into Free Cash Flow. DeepSeek Dials Up the Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic With Open - Source Inference Tool. 1 % Of Companies Account For 80 % Of OpenAI And Anthropic Spending - And It Just Stalled.
Sources: aol.com, gizmodo.com, zerohedge.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX at 64.0% with $60K traded.
Top volume remains in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? - SpaceX.
Event leaders
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 64.0% | $60K
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$3.0T | 19.0% | $47K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 93.6%
Top volume & odds: No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 96.2% | $33K
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $1.75–$2.0T | 24.0% | $29K
Top odds: $1.5–$1.75T | 34.9%
Sources: siasat.com, ign.com, darkhorizons.com
Keira Knightley says returning spy thriller Black Dove balances humour and moral complexity
Keira Knightley says returning spy thriller Black Dove balances humour and moral complexity.
Sources: y94.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.3% with $86K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.3% with $86K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.3% | $86K
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 5.1% | $26K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96.0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?) | 1.1% | $20K
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Top volume & odds: 1 | 92.0% | $9K
Popular events
Sources: miragenews.com, miragenews.com
Who Really Owns the Bitcoin Inside BlackRock ETF ?
Who Really Owns the Bitcoin Inside BlackRock ETF ?. MSCI Is Moving to Drop Strategy From Its Indexes . Could That Hit Bitcoin ?. Bitcoin Price Analysis : Recent Buyers Break Even Near $87 , 700 . Could Their Selling Stop BTC Rally ?.
Sources: aol.com, 247wallst.com, aol.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by What price will Bitcoin hit in November? - ↑ 80,000 at 66.0% with $153K traded.
Top volume remains in What price will Bitcoin hit in November? - ↑ 80,000.
Event leaders
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
Top volume: ↑ 80,000 | 66.0% | $153K
Top odds: ↑ 77,500 | 90.0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 2.6% | $35K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 2.8% | $17K
Popular events
Sources: koreaherald.com, zalebs.com
No Longer Unemployed !: Jeremy Lin Celebrates ESPN Move as NBA Champion Starts New Chapter
No Longer Unemployed !: Jeremy Lin Celebrates ESPN Move as NBA Champion Starts New Chapter. NBA general managers not picking Knicks to repeat. Victor Wembanyama , Spurs dominate annual NBA GM survey.
Sources: ibtimes.co.uk, nydailynews.com, tsn.ca
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Bears | 91.0% | $116K
Top volume: Golden State Warriors | 1.5% | $39K
Top odds: San Antonio Spurs | 23.0%
Top volume: New England Patriots | 3.5% | $24K
Top odds: San Francisco 49ers | 14.2%
Popular events
Vol $116K
Wildfires Develop as Maine Deals With High Fire Danger
Wildfires Develop as Maine Deals With High Fire Danger. How has Election Day weather been in the past ?. Health damages from climate change are increasing faster.
Sources: 989wclz.com, wjla.com, recorder.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑6.5k at 73.0% with $67K traded.
Top volume remains in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? - ↑6.5k.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 1.9% | $3K
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 14–16 | 56.0% | $5
Popular events
+$5,975
+$3,278
+$2,408
Kalshi via Jupiter
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