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Prediction Herald
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Building the fresh edition...
Loading Lead Story
Digital edition - updates daily
News Meets Markets
Lead Story
Markets are repricing around "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028". Event volume totals $1B across outcomes, with $808K traded in the last 24 hours. Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Jon Ossoff" at 19.2% and $106K 24h volume.
Leading economic event: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" Highest implied odds and top volume are on "Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?)" at 11.0% and $253K 24h volume. More on Economics Desk.
Markets at a glance
Most traded
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - Chelsea Clinton
$0
Highest implied
Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? - March 31, 2027
98.8%
Top priced
Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___? - March 31, 2027
98.8%
Volume leaders
Price leaders
B1
Lead market: Which party will win the Senate in 2026? - Democratic Party leads the desk at 98.7% with $3M traded.
Lead stories
Midterm Elections Live Updates : Ossoff Retains Georgia Senate Seat , as Polls Close in More Battlegrounds. Midterm Elections Live Updates : Ossoff Retains Georgia Senate Seat , as Polls Close in More Battlegrounds. Midterm Elections Live Updates : Ossoff Retains Georgia Senate Seat , as Polls Close in More Battlegrounds.
Sources: nytimes.com, nytimes.com, nytimes.com
B2
Awaiting market data for Japan PM snap election, Thailand election winner.
Democratic nominee
Event volume $1B0%
B3
Lead market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes leads the desk at 11.0% with $253K traded.
Lead stories
Explosions rock Iran Qeshm Island as Tehran claims three US drones downed
Explosions rock Iran Qeshm Island as Tehran claims three US drones downed. US strikes Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz , official says , leaving unclear what comes next. U . S . Carries Out Defensive Strike On Iranian Island.
Sources: thehindubusinessline.com, wfmz.com, wdov.iheart.com
B4
Lead market: Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes) - $1.5–$1.75T leads the desk at 25.0% with $30K traded.
Lead stories
Anthropic Is Growing 50 %, Microsoft Isnt
Anthropic Is Growing 50 %, Microsoft Isnt. Anthropic Is Aiming for the Biggest IPO Ever -- Here the Chip Stock to Buy Before It Lists. Anthropic Says It Turned an Adjusted Profit Ahead of Its Expected IPO.
Sources: 247wallst.com, fool.com, aol.com
OpenAI employees warned about operational security lapses for years , sources say
OpenAI employees warned about operational security lapses for years , sources say. Athenahealth Claude AI Connection Raises HIPAA Questions. Nvidia Orders Partners to Reduce China Exposure.
B5
Lead market: Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 leads the desk at 3.1% with $141K traded.
Lead stories
Ramayana pre - Diwali GAMBLE brings back memories of Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge : Shah Rukh Khan - starrer opened BE.... BREAKING : Ramayana BREAKS pre - Diwali jinx ! Rs . 25 cr+ in advance ticket sales ; Kamal Gianchandani predicts HIST.... Shah Rukh Khan starrer KING gets a Diwali surprise as Bonus Playing Cards launches limited - edition collector deck :....
Sources: bollywoodhungama.com, bollywoodhungama.com,
B6
Lead market: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 3.1% with $63K traded.
Lead stories
Claude AI Uncovers NSA Curve Mystery , Sparks Satoshi Debate
Claude AI Uncovers NSA Curve Mystery , Sparks Satoshi Debate. Coinbase Lays Out How It Thinks Bitcoin Should Prepare for the Quantum Threat. Coinbase Lays Out How It Thinks Bitcoin Should Prepare for the Quantum Threat.
Sources: econotimes.com, gizmodo.com, aol.com
Trump to strip South Africa and Rwanda of US trade benefits
Trump to strip South Africa and Rwanda of US trade benefits.
Sources:
B7
Lead market: Top Esports leads the desk at 21.0% with $611K traded.
Lead stories
Matt Kleine Among The Candidates For Astro GM Job
Matt Kleine Among The Candidates For Astro GM Job. No Longer Unemployed !: Jeremy Lin Celebrates ESPN Move as NBA Champion Starts New Chapter. Lakers land Luka Dončić in blockbuster trade that sends Anthony Davis to Mavericks.
Sources: mlbtraderumors.com, ibtimes.co.uk, cbsnews.com
Barcelona suffers first loss of season , falls 4 - 2 to PSG
Barcelona suffers first loss of season , falls 4 - 2 to PSG. PSG Beat Man City 4 - 2 to Lead Champions League Standings.
Sources:
B8
Lead market: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes leads the desk at 1.9% with $2K traded.
Lead stories
Odisha Renewable Energy Investment Surges to ₹1 . 17 Lakh - Pragativadi I Latest Odisha News in English I Breaking News. El Niño rains bring drought relief to the Rocky Mountains , but destructive floods to the Four Corners. East coast storm losses reach $1 . 62 billion in final estimate.
Sources: pragativadi.com, ksut.org, insurancebusinessmag.com
B9
Top traders PnL across major prediction market sites.
Kalshi via Jupiter
Kalshi via Jupiter
Election night agenda : When polls close and when to expect results. Prediction markets face midterms test as election bets soar | Honolulu Star - Advertiser. Prediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soar.
Sources: wxyz.com, staradvertiser.com, straitstimes.com
Midterm elections could shape Trump agenda
Midterm elections could shape Trump agenda. What at stake for Congress this midterm ?. Midterm elections come to a close , voters pass judgment on Trump – NBC New York.
Sources: wyff4.com, wyff4.com, nbcnewyork.com
Market wrap
Politics Desk is led by Which party will win the Senate in 2026? - Democratic Party at 98.7% with $3M traded.
Top volume remains in Which party will win the Senate in 2026? - Democratic Party.
Lead event
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? - Democratic Party
Trading at 98.7% with $3M in volume.
Event leaders
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Democratic Party | 98.7% | $3M
Top volume: Ken Paxton (R) | 2.4% | $2M
Top odds: James Talarico (D) | 97.9%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Top volume & odds: Democrats Sweep | 98.2% | $2M
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Top volume & odds: Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 94.8% | $894K
Which Tossup Senate States Will Republicans Win? (AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX)
Top volume & odds: None | 82.0% | $696K
15.9%
+0.1pp
$28M
0%
Republican nominee
Event volume $721M0%
Presidential election
Event volume $728M0%
Why AUD / USD Is Facing Its Most Important Test Yet.
Sources: dailyforex.com
Gas Prices Decline , But Still For Election Day
Gas Prices Decline , But Still For Election Day. Gas Prices Decline , But Still For Election Day | News Radio 1190 KEX. HPCL Visakhapatnam refinery fire controlled , no damage to units.
Sources: jamn1075.iheart.com, 1190kex.iheart.com, thehindubusinessline.com
Market wrap
Economics Desk is led by Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes at 11.0% with $253K traded.
Top volume remains in Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes.
Lead event
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? - Yes
Trading at 11.0% with $253K in volume.
Event leaders
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?) | 11.0% | $253K
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Top volume: December 31 | 14.0% | $101K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 28.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 0 (0 bps) | 96.9% | $15K
Top volume & odds: December 31, 2026 | 92.2% | $15K
Popular events
Sources: asiaone.com, govinfosecurity.com, bgnes.com
Alaska U . S . Senate race draws significant donations from AI company employees
Alaska U . S . Senate race draws significant donations from AI company employees. Is your money safe when banks go AI ?. Most AI Labs Stay Mum on the Risks They Create.
Sources: sitkasentinel.com, nepalitimes.com, govinfosecurity.com
Market wrap
Tech Desk is led by Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes) - $1.5–$1.75T at 25.0% with $30K traded.
Top volume remains in Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes) - $1.5–$1.75T.
Lead event
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes) - $1.5–$1.75T
Trading at 25.0% with $30K in volume.
Event leaders
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
Top volume: $1.5–$1.75T | 25.0% | $30K
Top odds: $1.75–$2.0T | 30.0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Top volume: ↑$1.75T | 82.0% | $23K
Top odds: ↑$1.5T | 94.2%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Top volume & odds: SpaceX | 63.0% | $15K
Treasurer urged to rein in spending as rates rise again
Treasurer urged to rein in spending as rates rise again. Keira Knightley says returning spy thriller Black Dove balances humour and moral complexity. Treasurer urged to rein in spending as rates rise again.
Sources: illawarramercury.com.au, y94.com, areanews.com.au
Tom Brady Previews Emotional Return to Patriot Gillette Stadium for 1st Time as Broadcaster
Tom Brady Previews Emotional Return to Patriot Gillette Stadium for 1st Time as Broadcaster. Early Exit Polls Show Voters See Midterms As A Rebuke On Trump Administration. Early Exit Polls Show Voters See Midterms As A Rebuke On Trump Administration.
Sources: bleacherreport.com, wrak.iheart.com, realradio.iheart.com
Market wrap
Culture Desk is led by Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31 at 3.1% with $141K traded.
Top volume remains in Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31.
Lead event
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? - December 31
Trading at 3.1% with $141K in volume.
Event leaders
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Top volume & odds: December 31 | 3.1% | $141K
Top volume & odds: Callum Turner | 59.5% | $7K
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
Top volume: December 31, 2026 | 2.9% | $6K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 9.9%
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Top volume: Avengers: Doomsday | 5.1% | $4K
Top odds: Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 96.0%
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Avengers: Doomsday | 53.0% | $3K
Pepe Rose 12 % and Hyperliquid Nearly 10 % This Week While Bitcoin Fell . Can Either Keep Climbing ?
Pepe Rose 12 % and Hyperliquid Nearly 10 % This Week While Bitcoin Fell . Can Either Keep Climbing ?.
Sources: 247wallst.com
Market wrap
Crypto Desk is led by Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes at 3.1% with $63K traded.
Top volume remains in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?) | 3.1% | $63K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Top volume & odds: Yes (Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?) | 2.6% | $57K
What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
Top volume & odds: ↓ 75,000 | 79.0% | $44K
Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?
Top volume: November 15, 2026 | 47.7% | $19K
Top odds: March 31, 2027 | 98.8%
Popular events
NBA roundup : Pelicans prevail in OT , hand Grizzlies first loss
NBA roundup : Pelicans prevail in OT , hand Grizzlies first loss. NBA roundup : Pelicans prevail in OT , hand Grizzlies first loss.
Sources: orlandoecho.com, texasguardian.com
Market wrap
Sports Desk is led by Top Esports at 21.0% with $611K traded.
Top volume remains in Top Esports.
Event leaders
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
Top volume: Top Esports | 21.0% | $611K
Top odds: Invictus Gaming | 80.0%
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Top volume: Paris Saint-Germain | 19.0% | $129K
Top odds: Barcelona | 23.0%
Top volume: Golden State Warriors | 1.7% | $84K
Top odds: San Antonio Spurs | 23.0%
Popular events
First Alert Weather : Election Day Forecast | Tracking a few morning showers shifting inland. Rain , thunderstorms return to Charlotte region : First Alert forecast here. Odisha Post Cyclone Sanitation Drive : Key Actions - Pragativadi I Latest Odisha News in English I Breaking News.
Sources: actionnewsjax.com, wbtv.com, pragativadi.com
Frodsham solar farm approved to power up to 40 , 000 homes
Frodsham solar farm approved to power up to 40 , 000 homes. Queensland land release is building flood risk into the next decade. India to pursue Solution - oriented and Equitable Climate Action at UNFCCC COP31 in Antalya : Union Environment Minister.
Sources: northwichguardian.co.uk, insurancebusinessmag.com, orissadiary.com
Market wrap
Climate Desk is led by Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes at 1.9% with $2K traded.
Top volume remains in Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? - Yes.
Event leaders
Top volume & odds: Yes (Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?) | 1.9% | $2K
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top volume & odds: 14–16 | 57.0% | $100
Popular events
+$7,878
+$2,994
+$2,408
Kalshi via Jupiter
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